Blog Roll: The United States

 

The United States is facing a large number of problems right now. And, it does not appear that the Trump II Administration policies are addressed to solving any of them. Here are the problems and their interconnections as reported by ChatGPT: 

Briefly, the Political System (top of the graphic) has created economic, social, technological and geopolitical pressures that hav led to declining state capacity. The arrows show reinforcing causal links that make the problems difficult to address.

A Blog Roll of my postings on the  US economy mostly using the USL20 model follows:

• Alternate Futures for the US The current administration (Trump II) envisions a Business-As-Usual future of unlimited, unstable exponential growth. A more realistic Geopolitical model would link the US to the World System.
• US CO2 Emission Reductions Unlikely  The Trump II has done everything they can to disable Climate Policy and my forecasts are for CO2 emissions to stabilize at current levels (rather than be reduced) well past 2040.
• Why is Hardship Increasing in the US? Again, Business-as-usual (BAU) Policies of the Trump II do nothing to reduce hardship in the US.
• Geopolitical Linkages to Canada and Mexico. The Trump II administrations threatening policies toward North and South American countries are not facilitating a stable Geopolitical Environment. It would be better if North and South American countries found ways to link to the World System and benefit each other. US Hegemonic Leadership is not producing stability.
• US Inflation By Administration. The long-range attractor path predicts low levels of inflation for the US.
• US Unemployment. The attractor path for unemployment is expected to stabilize at around 9%, much higher than FED 2% targets.

Blog Roll: Brazil

 

Jan 5, 2026. After the Invasion of Venezuela by the Trump Administration, Brazil lined up as one of the Latin American countries that condemned the attack (here). It was also one of the Latin American countries hit hard by Trump Tariffs.

Coffee is a good example (graphic above from Trading Economics). In 2025, Trump imposed tariffs on Brazilian coffee and prices in the super market begin to rise and Trump's approval ratings begin to decline. One November 20, 2025, Reuters reports (here) that Trump lifted the tariffs. Trump had been arguing that even though tariffs were taxes, they would be paid by the importers. That turned out not to be true (something Trump could have learned in ECON 101).

Here is a Blog Roll of my other postings on Brazil:

• Seven Futures for Brazil Alignment with the US or the other Latin American Countries (LAC) is best.

Boiler Plate

Boiler Plate is provided with each of the blogs describing State Space models, data sources and how the models are created. For example: here.

Are Carbon Markets Back from the Dead?

 It was reported in the New York Times here that the Biden administration had been issuing new guidelines for carbon offsets and carbon markets. If you have been following Free Market ideas about  how to control Climate Change you might have concluded that Carbon Markets were exposed as Greenwashing designed in the marketing departments of Big Businesses. But, the proposals are back again from the dead, being pushed by the Biden administration in an election year.  What gives? And, will these ideas be supported by the Trump Administration (HINT: only if they make money again for Big Business)?

Blog Roll: Russia

 

Dec 29, 2025. Russia Threatens to Toughen Its Stance on Ending the War in Ukraine In a somewhat bizarre sequence of events, the US President (Donald Trump) had a phone call with the Russian President (Vladimir Putin), had a meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zalenskyy, and then had another call with Vladimir Putin. Without getting into the weird timing and details of these events (Was Trump getting Instructions from Putin? Was Putin looking for a pretext to continue fighting, etc. etc.), it seems that the peace process is in a "stalling mode" and the battlefield has settled into a stalemate. Why is this?

My state space statistical model of the Russian economy is also very unusual compared to other countries in the World-System. The RUL20 model is unstable and highly cyclical, forecast to peak again around 2050 and then collapse (again) after that. In other words, if Ukraine can hold out until 2050, the Russian Empire would collapse again as a results of it's own internal dynamics. But, 25 years is a long time.

Another interesting aspect of the RUL20 model is that the best Geopolitical Alignment for Russia would be for the country to join the European Union (!). Again, maybe the passing of a quarter century would be necessary for that to happen.

Here is a Blog Roll of my postings on Russia:

• Five Futures for Russia Joining the EU provides the best future for Russia!
• Geopolitical Futures for Ukraine Alignment with Russia is positive if cyclical but the best model is Business-As-Usual (no Geopolitical Alignment).
• A New Axis of Evil? Geopolitical alignment of Russia, India and China do not produce attractive model forecasts for any of the countries.
• Futures of Syria Geopolitical Alignment with Russia is OK, but Business-as-usual (no Geopolitical Alignment) is best.
• Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts for the World System  In terms of unending, uncontrolled exponential growth, alignment with Russia would be best but the environmental consequences would be quite negative.
• Futures for China Alignment with Russia would produced uncontrolled, unending exponential growth that would have negative environmental consequences.
• US Attempts to Dominate India Geopolitical Alignment with Russia  would produce a strongly cyclical future for India with large growth and collapse cycles.
• Seven Futures For Iran Geopolitical alignment with Russia would produce collapse.
• Futures for the World System Dominance by Russia would produce strong cycles of growth and collapse.
• Futures for Argentina Alignment with Russia produces unending, uncontrolled exponential growth and an environmental nightmare.
• Latin American Forecasts Alignment with Russia would produce immediate collapse.
• Forecasts for Columbia Alignment with Russia would produce wild cycles of growth and collapse.
• Futures for Germany Alignment with Russia would produces unstable cycles of growth and collapse.

Continuing Imperialist alignments with Russia do not produce attractive outcomes, but unending and uncontrolled exponential growth will be an attractive future for some political-economic elites.

Notes

Wikipedia

Economy of Russia

Shadow Economy of Russia

Economic History of the Russian Federation

Economic History of the Russian Empire

Corruption in Russia

Economy of Ukraine

History of Russia

Russian Empire

Russo-Ukrainian War

Blog Roll: The Great Depression

 

The Great Depression of the Early 20th Century is (and was) a systemic event between World War I and World War II that has been intensely analyzed, if over-analyzed (see References below). The one viewpoint that seems to have been under-analyzed is the perspective of Systems Theory. The following is a Blog Roll of my postings on the topic:

• How do we define Great Depressions? From the standpoint of Systems Theory, not correctly.
• Shock Theories of Great Depressions An obvious but inadequate perspective.
• Did the Great Depression hit at a conjuncture of Technological Change? Maybe, but there have been a lot of Technological Long Waves and Conjunctures.
• Measuring the Great Depression Obsessive focus on the collapse of Gross Domestic product is myopic. 
• The Minsky-Kindleberger Framework So far, the best qualitative systemic framework. It needs to be tested.
• War and Normalcy: (1914-1929)  The Roaring Twenties Bubble was "popped" by the 1929 Stock Market Crash after which the US Economy returned to the long-run attractor path.
• Forecasting the Great Depression in France Not easy (or maybe even possible) since France reinvented itself after WWI and responded very conservatively to the shocks of the Great Depression.

Systems Theory opens up an entirely new perspective on the Great Depression. I will keep adding posts to this Blog Roll until I think I've attacked all the issues and competing explanations.

Notes

Readings

• Peter Fearon (1987) War, Prosperity and Depression, The US Economy 1917-1945. A good summary of the Economic Thinking on the Great Depression
• Charles Kindleberger (2013) World in Depression, 1929-1939 The best understanding of the Great Depression as a World-wide, Systemic Event
• Charles Kindleberger (2015) Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises What causes departures from the Attractor Path 
• US Government (2008) Outline of US History, Chapter 10, War, Prosperity and Depression. The "official" history for the US! 
• Immanuel Wallerstein (2004) World-Systems Analysis: An Introduction
• Ludwig von Bertalanffy (2015) General System Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications Kindle Edition