What Are the Odds?

Since I'm a statistician and a golfer and since I've had one hole-in-one (here), I found the graphic on the left (click to enlarge) interesting (it was from an article at Swing by Swing here).

After studying the odds (5,000 to 1), I really don't expect to make another hole-in-one (the odds might now be closer to 12,500 to 1 since my handicap is getting worse with age)!

There's A Slow Train Coming

It's pledge week on Public TV and they're playing Joe Bonamassa. Can you hear the slow train coming?

There's a slow train coming
It's movin' on down the line
Steel wheels on iron rails
Tonight I'm fixin' to die
Woo, I hope you don't mind pretty mama
Woo-hoo, hope you don't mind if I go

'Cause when the steam from the slow train rises
I ain't gonna see you anymore

There's a slow train coming
Coming right on time
Smokestacks and bottle lightning
This jumper on the line
Woo, I can't do without it anymore pretty mama
Yes, I can't do it without it anymore

'Cause when the steam from the slow train rises
I ain't gonna see you anymore

There's a slow train coming
To march us home from war
With my leather boots and my haversack
Sure can take it no more
Woo, I cried for her baby when I saw you there
Woo-hoo, I cried for her just the same

'Cause when the steam from the slow train rises
I'm gonna cry for you just the same

Well there's a slow train coming
Carrying the mighty worker hordes
Eighteen days in the cotton field
Enough to put a man out of coup d'amour
Woo, It's time to move on pretty mama
Woo-hoo, Yes it's time to move on as I go

As the steam from my slow train rises
It's time for me to get on board

For Gil Jevne: Joe Bonamassa is well on his way to winning!

Is There a Role for Nuclear Power in Reducing CO2 Emissions?

Last Sunday, CNN was reporting (here) that top climate scientists had come out in favor nuclear power as a "realistic" way to reduce carbon emissions. Slate was also reporting (here) that while "Many in the environmental community say that renewable energy is not a viable solution to the climate problem," climate scientist James Hansen is saying that "...this is the equivalent of 'believing in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy'".  CNN also plans to air a documentary on Thursday Nov. 7, Pandora's Promise (see the video clip below),  investigating the resurgence of interest in nuclear power.

The media always seem to find black-and-white stories (Nuclear Power vs. Climate Catastrophe or Renewable Energy vs. Climate Catastrophe) compelling, but these are false choices. Almost a decade ago, Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow from Princeton University began arguing that there are a wide range of technologies that could be applied to reducing carbon emissions. For example, see the 2004 article in Science Stabilizing Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem in the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies and the 2006 article in Scientific American A Plan To Keep Carbon in Check. Their point might be too boring for a media special but its important to understand and keep in mind as the spin cycle starts winding up.

Pacala and Socolow argue for a divide and conquer strategy (see the graphic above, click to enlarge). By 2056, carbon emissions are forecast to double from the current level of about  7 billion tons per year to over 14 billion tons per year. If we want to stabilize carbon emissions, no single technology, be it renewable energy or nuclear power, will be able to do that. However, seven technologies that each reduce carbon emissions by 2 billion tons per year by 2056 would stabilize carbon emissions. Pacala and Socolow go on to describe 15 current technologies (no pie in the sky) that are capable of each contributing 2 billion tons per year. One of the technologies involves doubling today's nuclear power output to displace coal-fired power plants.

What are the other technologies? Here's the list, including nuclear:

1. Increase the fuel economy of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg.
2. Drive two billion cars not 10,00 miles per year (current average) but 5,000 miles per year at 30 mpg.
3. Cut electricity use in homes, offices and stores by 25 percent.
4. Raise efficiency at 1,600 large coals-fired power plants from 40 to 60 percent.
5. Replace 1,400 large coal-fired power plants with gas-fired plant.
6. Install Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) at 800 large coal-fired power plants.
7. Install CCS at coal fired power plants that produce hydrogen for fueling 1.5 billion vehicles.
8. Install CCS at coal-to-syngas plants.
9. Add twice today's nuclear output to displace coal-fired power plants.
10. Increase wind power 40-fold to displace coal.
11. Increase solar power 700-fold to displace coal.
12. Increase wind power 80-fold to make hydrogen for cars
13. Drive two billion cares on ethanol using one-sixth of the world's cropland.
14. Stop all deforestation.
15. Expand conservation tillage to 100 percent of cropland.

So while we are all watching CNN's documentary or reading about the conversion of climate scientists, keep in mind that we have a large menu of (boring) choices at least half of which have to be deployed between now and 2056 if CO2 emissions are to be stabilized.




MORE READING

Stabilizing Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem in the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

A Plan To Keep Carbon in Check

Amy Leuers, Director, Climate Change at the Skoll Global Threats Fund (blogged about here) tweeted (here) "At least we must face the tough tradeoffs, not doing so is a form of denialism."  

Slate The Pro-Nukes Environmental Movement

CNN Top Climate Change Scientists' Letter to Policy Influencers and Pandora's Promise

Is This The Future of Jazz?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal (here) interviewed Robert Glasper. Glasper is a piano player and record producer who is described as trying to synthesize hip hop and jazz. Glasper has gone further than this and argued that jazz itself has become stagnant and needs to change. The WSJ article and Glasper's other interviews raise a number of issues about jazz that have been debated through the 20th century to the present: What is jazz and how does it differ from other music forms? Can a jazz musician be commercially successful and avoid "selling out"? Is jazz Black music? If jazz is racially defined what can other minorities and White musicians contribute, if anything (is there a White jazz)? Is jazz dead in the 21st Century? Is Robert Glasper's music the future of jazz?

Ultimately, the answers to these questions revolve around whether you or anyone else likes listening to any piece of music, not whether it's classified as jazz, hip hop, Western classical music, or some synthesis. So you really just have to listen to Glasper's music (the video above provides a good sample of his current work) and decide for yourself (personally, I like it, but...). If a style of music has an audience, that's all that matters and the rest of this post and other critics opinions are really irrelevant.

Here are a few great quotes from the WSJ article (mostly attributed to Glasper):

"Jazz is gong to die if we don't take it someplace else."

Wynton Marsalis "I don't think the art form [jazz] is going to receive anything by being R&B. That's already been done."

"I never got my due when it came to the jazz community."

"I'm not playing R&B because I need the money and hate the music. That's selling out; R&B is just more a part of my life experience than jazz."

Having an argument about jazz is difficult because defining jazz is not that easy. The typical components in any definition involve: (1) improvisation (but what about big band arrangements?), (2) swing (free rhythmic interpretations, changes of key and time signature, playing behind the beat, syncopation, etc.), (3) spontaneity of group interactions (but what about solo playing?), (4) starting with "heads" rather than complete arrangements, and (5) elements of popular music (the Great American Song Book, Blues, Rap, Rock, Bossa Nova, etc.).

Robert Glasper's music meets many parts of the definition, but not everything. The role of improvising seems less prominent although Gasper would probably look at each piece as a product of an improvisational process.

For me, I've lived with this debate since I started listening to jazz guitarist Wes Montgomery. Montgomery started out as a swing musician playing Charlie Christian solos (Christian was the first well-known electric guitarist and played with the Benny Goodman Sextet and Orchestra). In his early career Montgomery played bebop and hard bop while in his later career, as he became more popular, he move into pop and rock (the supposed "sell out" period). He influenced many guitarists and his Bumpin' album is considered the first example of smooth jazz.

Robert Glasper is traveling a well worn path here. Is it the future of jazz? Time will tell...

Push-It-To-The-Hole Chipping

Tom Scott has a great short game and has saved a lot of pars in scrambles and league play. My short game, on the other hand, is pretty mediocre. In our last outing, Tom finally said something that turned the light bulb on for me (after how many decades we've played together): keep the club low and push the ball to the hole, just like putting. It's dead simple, I can even do it and it's feels really great to finally have this shot in my bag. I asked Tom to record a cell-phone video explaining the shot and here it is. The audio is a little quiet so here's the transcription:

"When I chip what I'm looking for is what I call soft elbows where I want to know that I'm brushing the grass. One of the keys to that is that I keep the club low, to do that I'm really rocking my shoulders, almost like a putt. At the ball, I can move the club around a little bit to change the loft and all kinds of things, but when I come in to the back of the ball I just want to be square to my line, low club and back. That's how I push a pitch out and it seems to work pretty well for me."

It's really interesting to compare Tom's approach to the chipping styles of Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson and others (here). Right now, if I'm around the fringe of the green and unable to putt, Tom's push-it-to-the-hole chipping is very effective and brain-dead simple. I will typically use anything from a gap wedge to a seven iron, but Tom will also use a 60-degree wedge on this shot for those slippery, down-hill chip shots (I can do this in practice but have not yet tried it on the course). For other shots, Phil Mickelson's hinge-and-hold chip shot continues to work for me but I have to concentrate on keeping my left shoulder up, creating a straight line with my left arm and the club and pushing my hands forward to avoid hitting fat.

The Golf Swing That People Will Be Copying in the Next 30-40 years.

On the President's Cup telecast yesterday, commentator Johnny Miller repeated a comment he made in 2010 (here):  "...I said that this might be the swing that people will copy in the next thirty, forty years." The audio is a little hard to hear but here are some of the other comments:

• A swing with not a lot moving parts
• Quiet hands
• Nice hip turn
• Good shoulder turn to 90 degrees
• Swing stops well short of parallel
• Flat left wrist, stays down on it

Another more detailed analysis of Steve Stricker's golf swing can be found here.

National Park Employees Looking for Bears During the Shutdown

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,The Daily Show on Facebook Bear (gay culture) df= a large, hairy man who projects an image of rugged masculinity.

Is An Informed Citizenry Necessary for Democracy?

You have to hand it to the GOP. Give something a derogatory name and watch the Silent Majority come out against it. By the way, the full name is the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which the GOP voted for in 2010 (maybe they didn't understand at the time that it was the same as Obamacare).

"Most 401(K) Plans Stink," Jim Cramer.

Some quotes about 401(k) Plans from CNBC's Jim Cramer:

"Sometimes it feels like the whole 401(k) system was set up to benefit the financial services industry, not you."
"If your employer matches your contribution up to a percentage of income, then a 401(k) deserves your attention."

"But, only put as much money into the 401(k) as your employer will match."

"... the rest of your retirement investing should happen in your IRA until you hit the upper limit on what you're allowed to contribute in a given year. Unlike most 401(k) plans, an IRA gives you the freedom to invest your money in whatever way you want," Cramer said.

Surprise: Something is Wrong at KTVU, the Fox Affiliate in Oakland, CA

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Video Archive

Colbert: "If you're going to tell a racist joke, at least get the nationality right."

Best Parody Golf Ball Endorsement: "I Play Rangé"

My neighbor Carlos Sartori played the clip above for me last night. It's absolutely the funniest parody golf ball endorsement I have ever seen by John Hurley who you will probably recognize from his many comic TV roles (for the real thing, try the Titleist U.S. Open endorsement commercial here). If you are not a golfer, range balls (rangé balls) are the worst. They have been hit literally millions of times by mostly hackers, have laid out in the elements on the driving range over night and would never be teed up in mixed company by any self-respecting golfer. What is even funnier to me is that I would guess John Hurley is actually a pretty good golfer!

Peninsula Park Golf: 1958 to 2013

Today we played golf at Peninsula State Park in Ephraim, WI. It was built in 1921 and has gone through many changes over the years. When you play the course, you can clearly see cuts through the thick woods, mounds that once were either greens or tees and one parapet next to the current 8th hole that, until recently, was overgrown with trees. For many years I have been asking questions about all this and haven't always received consistent answers. Today, some of the mystery was cleared up.

The 1958 Course Layout (above, click to enlarge) was posted in the club house and it was very interesting when compared with the current course layout (below, notice that the map has been rotated to the left). 

A few points of comparison:

• The parapet next to the current 8th hole was the tee box for the original 2nd hole.
• The 5th hole used to be across Hwy 42 where the new Peninsula Park Short Course is now located (scheduled to open in 2014). Hwy 42 had very little traffic in 1958, unlike today!
• The 6th, 7th and 8th holes are now the driving range.
• The 8th tee box is now the 9th tee box but the green is the same (into the wind, this is a very difficult hole).
• The 10th hole was moved West and cut through the woods as an up-hill dog-leg left.
• The 4th hole is now the 8th hole (the course's signature but somewhat goofy down-hill par three).
• The 16th hole is the same but the 14th and the 15th have moved (this is still an interesting and confusing part of the course to me with many paths through the trees that were once fairways).
• The dreaded 17th hole is the same, a down-hill par 3 with a severely sloping green that's impossible to putt from anywhere but straight below the hole (this hole is the subject of most suggestion box comments every year--my suggestion: create three, level tiers on the current green similar to the links course greens at Lawsonia).
• The 18th hole is now a par 4 (into the wind it plays like a par 5).

I should also comment that the course is in great shape, particularly the traps have all been meticulously rebuilt and filled with sand (this is a shout-out to my neighbor, Darryl Jaraczwski, who supervised the reconstruction). You can read more of the interesting Peninsula State Park Golf Course history here.

Miguel Zenon: The Afro-Cuban Jazz Avant-Garde

Last Saturday, September 21, 2013, we saw Miguel Zenon at Chicago's Jazz Showcase. Zenon is a jazz sax player who appeared with the Rhythm Collective (Aldemar Valentin, six-string electric bass, Tony Escapa, drums and Reynaldo de Jesus, percussion). If you have never heard him or his music (and I had not, until Saturday night), it's time to catch up. Zenon is leading the new Afro-Cuban jazz Avant-Garde. He is a multiple Grammy nominee, Guggenheim Fellow, MacArthur Fellow and educator from Puerto Rico.

The video above displays Zenon playing music from the Puerto Rican Song Book (songs from the George Gershwins, Cole Porters and Jerome Kerns of Puerto Rican music--beautiful music you have probably never heard before) with a great jazz quartet and ten piece woodwind ensemble. The video below features Zenon at New York's Village Vanguard, this time with the same quartet (Luis Perdomo, piano, Hans Glawischnig, double bass, and Henry Cole, drums) playing Zenon's original compositions. The video below has the same feel as his live performance at the Jazz Showcase. In Chicago, he started the set with Charlie Parker's She Rote and ended with Tito Puente's Oye Como Va, with original music in between.

Enjoy! Catch Up! Afro-Cuban Avant-Garde Jazz is very accessible, new music! How did we decide to see him if we had never either heard of him or his music? You can go to anything at the Jazz Showcase and know it will be the best live Jazz you can hear outside New York city and the ticket price is right ($25, Saturday night, no drink minimum--unlike New York city). The Jazz Showcase has music seven nights a week and you can find discount coupons for the weeknight performances with the concierge at either your hotel or at the Blackstone Hotel (where the Jazz Showcase used to be prior to 2008).



I should also comment that Aldemar Valentin played six-string bass like you have probably never heard  electric bass played before. First, the typical jazz quartet has some rhythm instrument (guitar or piano, as in the clip above). Zenon appeared in Chicago without a rhythm instrument, but Valentin filled the gap by playing the six string bass very much like the six string guitar with arpeggio bass lines and three or four note block chords, especially on the slower tempo pieces.

The Steve Stricker Pitch Shot

Steve Stricker only tied for fourth in today's finish to the BMW Championship and he still has a chance at the FedEx Cup since he is currently ranked 6th in the points total (Zach Johnson won the BMW and moved from 27th to 4th place in the standings, Tiger Woods goes into the tournament as the first seed).

In prior posts (here) I described a variation on Stricker's chipping style. At iLoveScottsdaleGolf.com, Brandel Chamblee reports (here) watching Stricker practicing his short game before the BMW and was fascinated by what he saw. Here is how he described Stricker's approach to pitching (video example above):

Stand up tall, but not rigid, grip the club with a slight arch in your wrists at address and make no effort to set the club in the take-away, just turn the club back with your upper body and let the weight of the club tell you when to cock your wrists. That takes care of the back swing and now the moment of truth, when so much can go wrong. As you begin the downswing, make no effort to turn your lower body on these shots, as that will cause an increase in the angle of your wrists and on pitch shots that’s the last thing you want. Think instead of your left upper arm(assuming your right handed) and your chest initiating the forward move, keeping your lower body quiet, and turn your left shoulder behind you while your forearms rotate counter clock wise. This will put the bottom of your swing more forward, or right at the ball and you will be able to use the bounce of your pitching wedge and in todays, closely mown world of pitch shots, using the bounce is more important than ever.

Whether we could do this or not, Stricker's short game is pretty impressive and worth a close look.

Should Steve Stricker be Hitting the Golf Ball Further?

Golf professional and Wisconsin native Steve Stricker recently made a big decision. He decided to forego an elk hunt vacation for a shot at winning the $10 million Fed-Ex Cup. Stricker has played a limited schedule of about 10-12 tournaments this year yet he is at the top of the Fed-Ex Cup standings and has a chance of winning the Tour Championship in Atlanta and $10 million. Stricker is also currently ranked 8th among the PGA money leaders. His official world ranking is 10 and his scoring average is 69.46 strokes. His official earnings this year are about $3.5 million and this does not include endorsements (see Steve's hilarious "The Professionals" Avis commercial below).




So, it takes a great deal of chutzpah for golf instructor Clay Ballard (the Rotary Swing Lag Doctor) to suggest that if Steve Stricker followed Ballard's advice, he could hit the ball further. Ballard suggests that by getting more "lag" in his golf swing, Stricker (driving distance 285.3 yards and ranked 7th in driving accuracy) could be hitting the ball as far as Bubba Watson (304.2 yard average, ranked 141st in accuracy), Sergio Garcia (289.7 yard average, ranked 78th in driving accuracy) and Tiger Woods (292.7 yard average, ranked 74th in driving accuracy).

What Mr. Ballard does not discuss is that Steve Stricker used to have a lot of lag in his golf swing and he was hitting the ball all over the place. What Steve Stricker learned in the trailer (he hit balls in a heated trailer at the Cherokee Country Club during the off-season until he worked his way out of a horrible slump between 2004 and 2006) was that less lag produced greater accuracy (which is obvious from his current performance statistics) and that greater accuracy produces better performance. Lag Doctor indeed!

Phil Mickelson: Putting

I my prior two posts (here and here), I described Phil Mickelson's bunker and chipping style based on the "hinge-and-hold" swing. The primary issue with the hinge-and-hold style is keeping the arms and hands moving toward the target without flipping the hands. Phil feels that putting raises the same issue: the hands and arms must continue forward toward the target (see Phil's explanation in the video above).

I have been using Phil's approach to chipping, bunker play and putting for the last week, and so far the results have been great. I have always been a good bunker player (it seemed easy, just hit the ball fat), but the hinge-and-hold has added more control and better direction to my bunker play. My direction control, distance and line have improved using the putting approach. For chipping (which is the weakest part of my golf game) I have had some great shots and some bad shots. It seems I will need more practice, but the hinge-and-hold gives me something to work on (notice that Phil says he doesn't really "hold" the club, just accelerate the hands toward the target after hinging--I have had some success starting the forward motion before the hinge is complete, at least mentally).

From looking at a lot of Phil's instructional videos (here and here), it seems that he uses hinge-and-hold chipping (with a 60 or 64 degree wedge) and putting exclusively around the green. If he is on the fringe with a smooth path to the green and the hole, he will typically putt the shot. Otherwise, it's some variant of hinge-and-hold. Given Phil's great short game (and strong work ethic for practice), the approach is in some ways a simplification of conventional chipping, where any club in the bag (to include hybrids and fairway woods) can be used around the green (see my earlier post here). The problem with the conventional approach is knowing how far each club will run out on the green (in many videos you will see, the instructor knows this from having hit lots of shots before the camera starts rolling). Phil's simplification is worth considering and practicing. The goal is to get the chip shot within a three-foot radius of the hole for the easy up-and-down.

Phil Mickelson: Bunker Play

Here is another great video from Phil Mickelson on the Bunker Shot. In a previous posting (here), I looked at Phil's chipping style, called "hinge-and-hold". What's interesting about Phil's bunker play is that he uses the same hinge-and-hold style!

Some notes from the video:

• As bunker play increases so does driver performance (bunker play rhythm improves driving).
• Average bunker play on tour takes place from 10 yards (get it inside the three foot circle, Phil's record is 28 in a row and he tries to break his record every week).
• Typical concerns (how far should I hit behind the ball, what should be my angle of attack, etc.) don't matter! What matters is that you continue the emotion through the shot.
• Break wrists early like the hinge-and-hold, continue the hands into the finish.
• Bunker play is just like chipping and putting!
• Some adjustments need to be made for up-hill and downhill lies but it's the same concept as the lob shot (discussed in the hinge-and-hold video)
• Develop the rhythm and basic motion.

Basic Bunker Shot setup:

1. Play ball off front heel.
2. Open Face.
3. Then adjust the body.
4. Weight slightly forward.

Uphill Buried Lie setup:

1. "Stick" club into the ground.
2. Keep leading with hands.
3. Arm and club stay in straight line.
4. Move weight forward.

Downhill Buried Lie setup:

1. Move weight forward.
2. "Stick" club into sand.
3. Hands stay ahead of club.
4. Play ball forward.

One obvious and important point is that Phil really does practice and tries to set personal records. How do you get to win a British Open? Practice, practice, practice!

Phil Mickelson: Hinge and Hold Chipping

I have to admit it, my short game is miserable. In recognition of Phil Mickelson's recent wins in Scotland (the Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open and the British Open Championship at Muirfield Golf Links -- Phil now has 42 PGA Tour wins), it's long past time for me to look carefully at Phil's great short game. The video above starts the explanation of the "hinge-and-hold" chip shot done with the 60 degree wedge. For me, this is really a difficult shot: on the short grass and the hole is no more than a few yards on the green (normally I putt this shot). My favorite is the third shot below: hit it fat like a bunker shot for the high lob (I can certainly hit it fat and I love playing out of the sand)!

Here's a summary Phil's approach from the first video:

1. Break wrists immediately going back.
2. Hold/accelerate going through impact.
3. Continue hands toward hole.
4. Keep leading edge and bounce the same.
5. Arm and club form a straight line on follow through.
6. Arm and club move at same speed.

The video above is Part 2 of the "hinge-and-hold" chipping stroke, where Phil discusses variations. When we need to get the ball to stop more quickly and land more softly on the green.

1. Open the face
2. Open stance until face aimed at target
3. ...then regrip

The second approach is to come in steeper at the ball with a slicing-type impact position:

1. Put weight forward.
2. Move ball fractionally forward
3. Open face.
4. Align body so that face is aimed at target.
5. ...then regrip

The third approach for softer impact, is to hit it fat like a bunker shot for a high lob:

1. Hit "fat" like a bunker shot.
2. Open Face
3. Come in steeper, drive club in behind the ball (three inches!!!!).

Look at the swing length, the height of this shot, how far he hit behind the ball and how it almost landed on the cup. Amazing!

This is excellent instruction, Phil is a great Open champion, one of our generations best golfers and a nice guy on top of all that. At some point, I will report back on whether I have been able to pull off these shots (practice, practice, practice,...).

NOTE: Phil's hinge-and-hold method completely contradicts other post I have written on chipping (here, here and here). Obviously, I have had poor results with the other methods since my short game is still mediocre. One reason I think I will be successful with hinge-and-hold is that it is similar to an approach I used with the width swing: sand wedge open face, sharp wrist break, and hit slightly behind the ball using the bounce of the sand wedge to prevent the club from digging in (Phil's third approach, above). I dropped this approach because it didn't seem to "fit" with Stack and Tilt!

Rickie Fowler Wakes Up at ESPN

No, Rickie Fowler is not color blind, but he can play golf (and has a sense of humor about it)!

Stevie Ray Wakes Up Early for a Sound Check

From Bob D, Matt Warnock and Guitar International Magazine:

Sleepy 'ol Stevie just waking up then warming up. Insane how good can you really be that tired? Bless Mr Stevie Ray Vaughan now rocking from above. "Please share, like, comment, show interest in posting more of these old and rare recordings. I'll keep on hunting.. Check my channel for more great SRV Video. 

These videos are intended to help keep Stevie's memory alive and to introduce his great work to younger generations. 

Filmed Jan 1986 by Greg Savage ---"theguitarbuzz.com/tag/srv" --- "savageguitar.com"

My Gary Player Story

At 77, Gary Player recently posed for ESPN's 2013 The Body Issue (video above). After a remarkable accomplishment like this (I will not be asked by ESPN to pose in the 2023 issue), my encounter with Mr. Player seems a little insignificant, but it meant a lot to me.

I attended a practice round of the Milwaukee Open Invitational, evidently held at the North Hills Country Club in Menomonee Fall, WI*. This particular event was noteworthy because (1) Arnold Palmer elected to skip the event to prepare for the British Open (which he won, was well covered by the media, ensured that future US professional golfers would attend and started Palmer's rise to superstardom) and (2)  the Jack Niklaus father-son duo played in the tournament for the first time. And, of the big three professional golfers at the time, Gary Player was also in the field.

Tournaments in the 1960's were run differently than they are in 2013. One difference was that ropes were not put up for the practice rounds and you could walk in the fairways behind the players. We were following Gary Player on a short, downhill par 4 hole** and, off a downhill lie, Mr. Player hit a low wedge shot into the green that hit hard, took one bounce and stopped near the hole.

I was 15 years old at the time, had never seen a shot like that (my fluff wedge shots went high in the air and not very far) and blurted out "How did you do that?" Mr. Player turned around and gave me an intense stare (I was sure that I was in deep trouble) and said "Son, let me show you that shot again." He proceeded to hit three more low wedge shots, talking rapidly all the time, each shot landing within three feet of the other shots, turned to me again and said "Got it?" to which I said "Yes sir, Mr. Player" and kept my mouth shut for the rest of the round.

For two weeks after this lesson, I was able to hit the low wedge shot (to the amazement of my playing partners) but eventually lost it (at the time, I was not one to write things down). I have never been able to hit that same shot again. If I ever again get a chance to ask Mr. Player how to hit the low wedge shot, I will make sure to write it down as a blog posting (you can see Mr. Player hit what I think is one of these low wedge shots here).

* My recollection was that the original course the tournament was played on had been sold and turned into a subdivision. I can't verify this recollection and it actually does not matter to the story.

** Looking at the current Golf Course Tour for North Hills, none of the holes fits this description, seeming to support my prior note. I also followed Jack Niklaus in the tournament (I saw him hit a 1 iron as a second shot on a Par 5 hole but was not close enough to gasp in amazement at the height of the ball flight he was able to get out of such a straight-faced club) and I know that Palmer was not there, so it must have been 1961.

Mysteries of Modern Medicine: The HEAd Anastomosis VENture

Slate Magazine recently produced a short video titled "Who's Ready for a Full Head transplant?" The staff had a lot of fun with this, taking clips appropriately from Frankenstein ("He's alive! He's alive!"), Young Frankenstein (Marty Feldman playing Igor singing I Ain't Got Nobody), The Incredible 2 Head Transplant ("This Brain Wants to Love You, this Brain Wants to Kill You"). Dr. Sergio Canavero is the evil scientist here who even invents his own product, an inorganic polymer glue called "Heads On Glue". In attaching the new head, how could Dr. Canavero possibly get all the nerve connections working properly? With a slight toss of his head and the confident tone exhibited by all great neurosurgeons, he replied that "only few nerve connections need to be correct"!

Jobs the Movie (No, it's not about US unemployment)

The video above is the trailer for the upcoming movie about Steve Jobs starring Ashton Kutcher and Amanda Crew with a large cast (here and here) out of Apple history (Jack Dudman, Mike Markkula, Steve Wozniak, John Sculley, Andy Hertzfeld, Gil Amelio, Bill Atkinson, Chris Espinosa, Jeff Raskin, etc.). If you've read Steve Jobs (the book), I think you'll find the movie very interesting, especially after seeing the trailer.

I have written posts about Steve Jobs (here) and hope to do more in the future. And, I can't wait to see the movie.

What is Trackman and how is it changing golf?

Trackman is a phased-array dopler radar (the small, upright device behind the golfer in the video above, costs about $20K right now and is connected to a PC on the right) that provides detailed feedback on ball flight and club face measurement during a golf swing. Trackman is used for club fitting, golf training and analysis. The video above gives an excellent introduction to the device.

The first step in using Trackman is to pick a target line. Then, when you hit the ball, Trackman provides real-time flight tracking: ball speed, vertical launch, launch spin, carry distance, club speed, and hang time. Trackman also provides club measurement data: club path, club face angle, ball dispersion, attack angle (vertical movement), vertical swing plane, horizontal swing plane, and dynamic loft.

It's important to point out that Trackman does not make a movie of the player's golf swing. Slow motion analysis of golf video was the dominant technology for studying the golf swing. It led to proscriptions about how the golf swing should look and positions the arms, hands and body should be in at different points in the golf swing (see for example Tiger Woods My Swing app pictured above or the approach used by GolfTec and the analysis of my Stack and Tilt swing here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here). Trackman data has demonstrated that the two most important pieces of information are swing speed, face angle (closed, open, square), angle of attack (downward, level, upward)  and swing path (in-out, out-in or square) at impact. Since different styles of golf swing can produce the same swing speed, face angle and swing path at impact, stylistic proscriptions are less important and potentially irrelevant. Another way to say this is that the ball knows nothing about your golf swing, either before or after it was hit.

Trackman is currently being used by golf professionals, club makers, club fitters and golf instructors. The data generated from trackman has changed golf training, golf instruction, club design and how those who use it think about the golf swing. I'll talk about all this in future posts.

DISCLAIMER: Trackman is not the only phased-array dopler radar launch monitor. There is also one made by FlightScope. Since I have not used either of these launch monitors, nothing I have said above or in other posts is meant as a product endorsement. Because Trackman seems to be the most popular, I will continue using "Trackman" as a generic name for "phased-array dopler radar launch monitors". There are also many launch monitors that are not radar based or use radar but not phased-array dopler radar (here). These launch monitors produce less information, have some reliability and accuracy problems but are more affordable.

TECHNICAL NOTE: FlightScope provides a nice technical description of how the phased-array dopler radar launch monitor works (here with a graphic below, click to enlarge). FlightScope has been successfully sued by TrackMan for patent infringement (here), so we'll have to see what the future availability of the product will be.

US Congress Fumbles Financial Reform

Why Financial regulation will never happen given the makeup of the US Congress (from Robert Kaiser's comments in the video): "...it was the belief that it ... [regulation]... was the wrong way to go held by people who didn't understand the situation."

Mr. Kaiser does not mention the role of money in politics and Upton Sinclair's comment (here) that "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"


Watch New Book Chronicles Fight Over Financial Reform After Crisis  on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

Don't Throw Your Love On Me So Strong

The great guitarist and Roy Plumb student, Lance Olson, passed on the video (above) and note (below) from the National Guitar Museum on T-Bone Walker (1910-1975), probably one of the last great blues guitar players to use a hollow-body, arch-top jazz guitar. T-bone, we miss you, RIP (I'm not sure why he got the name "T-bone" but his split below kind of looks like one)!

Aaron Thibeaux Walker was born on May 28, 1910 . . . 103 years ago. Nicknamed T-Bone, Walker learned the guitar at age 13, and recorded as early as 19. He was among the first blues players—if not the very first—to use the electric guitar as his instrument of choice. He claimed to have picked up an “electrified” guitar as early as 1935, making him one of the first electric guitarists in any genre. T-Bone put on a sensational live show, picking with this teeth and playing behind his head (something Jimi Hendrix would later do), doing splits and strutting (later done by Chuck Berry), and wrote one of the blues’ most enduring songs, “Stormy Monday” (or, as he called it "Call It Stormy Monday (But Tuesday's Just As Bad).” Here’s an incredible live version of “Don’t Put Your Love On Me So Strong.” Enjoy.

Stack and Tilt: The "Two" Standup Moves

In the video above, PGA professional Mike Bennett (co-founder of the Stack and Tilt Swing, S&T) gives New Zealand PGA professional Marcus Wheelhouse a lesson. Mike Bennet discusses a number of interesting issues here, but what caught my attention was his discussion of the two standup moves.

My basic swing thought in S&T has been: stack-tilt-standup. It turns out that there are actually two standup moves in the swing, one on the backswing and one on the follow through. Mike also mentions the reason for straightening the left leg and describes ground loading (squatting down and standing up on the second standup).

So, for all of us who would like a lesson from Mike Bennett, this is about as close as we'll get!

Has Anyone Been Held Accountable for the Subprime Mortgage Crisis?

In case we have forgotten about the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, Frontline replayed their documentary "Is Wall Street Untouchable?" tonight -- see the video above. It has now been almost five years since the start of the financial crisis in 2007 and the statue of limitations on civil fraud cases is about to run out. It appears right now that there will be no major Wall Street prosecutions, either criminal or civil.

Can anyone see a link between the lack of prosecutions and the obscene level of income inequality in the US?

Petra Magoni and Ferruccio Spinetti: I Will Survive

My favorite Italian Jazz Duo, Petra Magoni and Ferruccio Spinetti.

Do We Really Need Income Inequality to Create Economic Growth?

Former CIA Analyst and targeting Officer Nada Bakos posted the video above on Twitter with the comment "Middle class are hardly distinguishable from the poor in US" (you can also read her blog here). The video makes the point, with a series of graphic presentations, that some inequality is one thing, but the amount of income inequality in the US is really obscene.

Over time, income inequality in the US was at its highest level right before two catastrophic historical episodes: the Great Depression and the current Subprime Mortgage Crisis (see my analysis of the data here). These events and the trends in income inequality might just be coincidentally related, but I doubt it! Minimally, none of this benefited the mass of people that had to suffer through it. Saying that people were better off in 1930 and 2007 than they were in 1873 because of economic growth is small comfort. Saying that obscene levels of income inequality are necessary for economic growth is a stretch. Saying that the US is moving toward Socialism is even a greater stretch (in a Socialist society, there would be equal distribution of income as pointed out by the video).

Petra van Nuis and Andy Brown: Alone Together

Petra Van Nuis and her quartet gave a concert this afternoon in Ephraim, WI. Petra (pronounced Pay-tra) is a jazz vocalist from Chicago, IL and is "...one of the keepers of the flame when it comes to the fading art of tasty jazz singing" (from the playbill, front page reproduced below). Her repertoire is drawn from the Great American Song Book and her biography notes that "...she enjoys unearthing obscure songs and her extensive repertoire is both impressive and unique," both understatements! In the video above she sings Alone Together, from the 1932 Broadway musical Flying Colors, a great jazz standard. In the video, she is accompanied by her husband, jazz guitarist Andy Brown, arguably the best jazz guitarist you've never heard about.

I'm always surprised when high-level jazz hits the Door County Peninsula. In this case, the connection was through double bassist Joe Policastro who is, if I have this right, married to Robert Clarke's daughter (see the playbill below--click to enlarge).

On a personal note, Petra sang the great Ella Fitzgerald song A Tisket a Tasket (you can listen to Ella's 1938 recording with the Chick Webb orchestra here). This is the first jazz recording I can remember hearing and I must have been only five or size years old. I can remember walking into our kitchen, hearing the band on the radio doing the "So do we, so do we" chorus and understanding what it meant to be hip. Petra had her group do the "No, no, no, no..." response that was originally sung by Ella and I couldn't resist chiming in! A great, nostalgic afternoon of big-band jazz!

George's Dilemma

Here's a piece from Alto Sax player Ian Henrickson-Smith with a great title. I just heard a cut from his album The Soul of My Alto. The song was titled Park Avenue Petite. My dilemma is that I can't find a YouTube video of it to play for you. If you like what you hear in the website freebie above, follow the album link below and select #2 Park Avenue Petitite, pure urban jazz/blues sax!



NOTE: "George's Dilemma" is actually a Clifford Brown tune from the Album "Study in Brown." You can listen to the original and see the lead sheet here. "Park Avenue Petite" is a Benny Golson tune (lead sheet available here). You can hear the original on YouTube here.

Jim Whittaker: Still Climbing at 83

Sometime in the 1970s, I went to a camp fire presentation by Jim Whittaker somewhere outside of Madison, WI (if anyone remembers the name of the place, they had cross-country skiing in the winter with pancake breakfasts and camping in the summer, let me know). Jim Whittaker was the first American to reach the summit of Mount Everest on May 1, 1963. Tonight on the PBS News Hour I found out that today is the 50th anniversary of the ascent and that Whittaker is still going strong.

My only remembrance of Jim Whittaker's camp fire presentation was that someone in the group (it was a very small group, a very relaxed intimate presentation) asked how one could possibly maintain a healthy diet while out backpacking or climbing? Jim paused for a moment, scratched his chin and, to the best of my recollection, said "Well, you aren't going to die from giving up your balanced diet for a few weeks of hiking or climbing. Eat lots of carbs, pack light, you'll be OK".

When you hear Jim speak in the video above, it's the same, no-nonsense guy I remember from 40 years ago. Through force of personality and accomplishment, he has evidently had a similar influence on a lot of people.

Aniston Receives 2013 Bimbo Bakery Award for Sexiest On-Screen Dirt Bag in Horrible Bosses

HORSHAM, PA. For her role in the 2011 movie Horrible Bosses, Jennifer Aniston has received the Bimbo Bakery award for "Sexiest On-Screen Dirt Bag". Ms. Aniston had no comment, but I do!

I actually have not been much of a Jennifer Aniston fan until I saw her in this movie. Aniston played Dr. Julia Harris, D.D.S., a sexually compulsive dentist who harasses her dental assistant, Dale Arbus played by Charlie Day. For her performance, she has already won the 2012 MTV Movie Award in the category "Best On-Screen Dirt Bag," and now the coveted Bimbo Bakery award.

The clips above show her locking Charlie Day in her office while she is only wearing a white dental coat and a thong (maybe nylons), shows the compromising still photographs she has on Dale while he was anesthetized for some complementary dental work, and her undressing and performing from her front window for Kurt Buckman (played by Jason Sudeikis) who is supposed to be keeping her under surveillance. For the part, Aniston insisted on dying her hair brunette to look different from the other characters she had played.

The film has received mixed but positive reviews. The negative reviews considered it homophobic, misogynist and racist. The positive reviews thought that the ensemble casting and acting were all well done for what the film essentially was, "moronic, vulgar and juvenile". Of Jennifer Aniston's role, Roger Ebert commented that it was a surprise, a return to form with acute comic timing and hilariously enacted "alarming sexual hungers".

I would have to agree with Roger Ebert. While there were great comic performances put in by Charlie Day, Jason Bateman, Jason Sudeikis, Colin Farrell, Kevin Spacey, and Jamie Foxx (Motherfuckah Jones), Jennifer Aniston really stole the movie. Although Ms. Aniston is clearly a beautiful woman, as a blond I never found her that attractive. As a brunette, she was devastating. But wait a minute, in this role she was not supposed to be really attractive. In fact, she was supposed to be repulsive. Somehow she managed to play a dirt-bag role and still look sexy, no mean accomplishment! A fitting performance for the 2013 Bimbo Bakery award in this category.

What weighs a metric ton and has red hair?

Mike Meyer's Austin Powers movies are some of my favorites (as were all the James Bond films he was parodying). In this scene, Fat Bastard (played by Meyers, I didn't realize this the first time I saw the movie--the fat suit was designed by special effects master Stan Winston) is in bed with the spy Felicity Shagwell (Heather Graham). Her mission is to plant a homing device on Fat Bastard, a morbidly obese Scottish henchman of Dr. Evil (also played by Myers, who evidently modeled him after Lorne Michaels--Myers was on Saturday Night Live from 1989-95, with guest appearances up to 2011). In the scene above, Shagwell attempts to insert the homing device into Fat Bastard's rectum--an unforgettable scene with unforgettable dialog ("I'm dead sexy. Look at my sexy body...By the way, would you like some chicken, I've got some more..." and "Ooooh, frisky are we?").

Here are a few more unforgettable Fat Bastard scenes, especially "I eat because I'm unhappy...":

"All I Want is a Good Plain American Meal"

Here's a clip about "Good Plain American Food" from the movie Prince of Tides. This early scene from the movie sets up the struggle that Tom Wingo (Nick Nolte) has overcoming the psychological damage inflicted by his parents. The father, Henry Wingo (Brad Sullivan) is a shrimp boat captain fishing off South Carolina tide waters. He works hard all day and wants dinner on the table when he comes home. His neurotic wife, Lila Wingo (Kate Nelligan), dreams of a better life for herself preparing "elegant food". She prepares him a dinner of Shrimp Newburg which he spits out, gets angry and starts ruffing up the kids, especially young Tom.

Mom intervenes and prepares dad a good American meal of Red Heart Dog Food which dad, and the dog, stick their faces into. The scene is played as a flashback brought on by Tom Wingo preparing a meal after a session with his suicidal sister's psychiatrist Susan Lowenstein (Barbra Steisand).

We recently picked up a three video set of Streisand Movies (Prince of Tides, The Way We Were, and The Mirror Has Two Faces) for $6.95 at Sentry Foods. I had never seen The Mirror Has Two Faces (it was OK) but I have seen the Prince of Tides many times and it seems to wear very well. The extended love scene between Tom Wingo and Susan Lowenstein at a cabin in upstate New York is the only part that seems a little slow given that we viewers know it isn't going to work. We are waiting to watch The Way We Were since I've always found the movie way too sentimental. Maybe the longer we wait and the older I get, the more I'll like the movie! In any event, the "Dad Gets Dog Food" clip from Prince of Tides is one of my favorite movie scenes.

Decoding the Right Wing's Social Security "Facts"

In the video above (edited by Think Progress here), Ron Johnson, R-WI, claims that the Social Security Trust Fund (the fund that accepts payroll tax contributions, loans the money back to the government for interest and pays benefit to Social Security recipients) is a "myth" because "the government is essentially writing itself a check." Economist Paul Krugman points out that if  Rep. Johnson's assertion was right then the entire Federal Budget is a myth and that "your facts are false". What's going on here?

I actually think everyone understands the facts of how Social Security works (I'm being generous to Rep. Johnson because he's from my home state). What Rep. Johnson is saying is that the Right Wing has no intention of paying the Social Security Administration back the money it has loaned the Federal government. He is right on this "fact". Ever since the Social Security Administration was formed in 1935 by the New Deal, the Right Wing has vowed to destroy it. Refusing to pay the funds back or using a crisis (such as the Subprime Mortgage Crisis created by Right Wing Bush II Administration policies) to argue that the government is broke and cannot pay Social Security back, all of this would be a great way to destroy Social Security.

Think Progress ends their piece with the following factual statement:

The Social Security trust fund is solvent through 2038, and the program would almost certainly have long-term solvency were it not for the Republican-backed cap on payroll taxes for income above a certain level.

Causality and the Voting Rights Act

The Supreme Court is currently hearing a case that challenges Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Section 5 requires states, counties and townships with a history of racial discrimination to get pre-approval from the US Justice Department before making changes to their existing voting laws. NY Times columnist and statistician Nate Silver recently wrote a post (here) on the statistical fallacies being offered in court to demonstrate that the Voting Rights Act is no longer needed.

In oral arguments before the court (here), Justice Roberts made some questionable comparisons between percentage of Black voters in Mississippi and Massachusetts to argue that the Voting Rights Act is no longer needed (Black voting percentages are currently higher in Mississippi). Nate Silver points out that selecting two (possibly outlier) States for comparison is basically cherry picking. Silver goes on to conclude:

... the fact that black turnout rates are now roughly as high in states covered by Section 5 might be taken as evidence that the Voting Rights Act has been effective. There were huge regional differences in black turnout rates in the early 1960s, before the Voting Rights Act was passed. (In the 1964 election, for example, nonwhite turnout was about 45 percent in the South, but close to 70 percent elsewhere in the country.) These differences have largely evaporated now.

How much of this is because of the Voting Rights Act, as opposed to other voter protections that have been adopted since that time, or other societal changes? And even if the Voting Rights Act has been important in facilitating the changes, how many of the gains might be lost if the Section 5 requirements were dropped now?

These are difficult questions that the Supreme Court faces. They are questions of causality – and as any good lawyer knows, establishing a chain of causality is often the most difficult chore in a case.

I would like to pick up on the point about causality.  From the directed graph above and using Judea Pearl's notation, the Voting Rights Act was an experimental manipulation (Pearl's "do" notation) of voting laws in States with a history of racial discrimination and voter suppression. From the standpoint of causality, the issue does not involve increases in Black Turnout. The important question is whether Right Wing Voter Suppression and racial discrimination has ended. If the forces that have reduced Black Turnout have not changed then removing the Voting Rights Act will suppress Black Turnout again.

What evidence do we have about Right Wing Voter Suppression? We have the last presidential election when the Republican party actively attempted to suppress minority voting in an attempt to win the election for Mitt Romney. Does anyone think this will be obvious to the Right Wing Justices on the Supreme Court?