A Great Song for the MidWest Winter

It's Snowing, it's Blowing,
My hatred of Winter is growing,
Enough is enough, Is enough,
....

Remember Donna Summer, remember Summer.

Is the "Settled Science" Argument a Straw Man?

The recent publication of the Fifth Scientific Assessment (AR5) from the IPCC concluding that human being are altering the climate has been met by a uniform response from the Right Wing: the idea that Science is settled, whether it be Climate Change or Evolution is a Myth. The argument surrounding "Settled Science" has actually been going on for a long time, especially between the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal (here). If the Right Wing doesn't like a scientific conclusion or theory it just argues that the science isn't settled. The Left Wing argues that science is never settled.

A recent opinion piece by Charles Krauthammer in the Washington Post (here) uses the settled-science myth to criticize the current Administration in Washington DC for worrying about climate change or requiring that health insurance cover mammograms. Since a recent large-scale, randomized clinical trial showed little benefit from mammograms (here), Mr. Krauthammer suggests that Climate Science will shortly also be overturned and, what is more, most scientific conclusions can be ignored by political commentators.

It is unfortunate that both sides have chosen to use the idea of "settled science" because the idea is wrong. Science is not about results and conclusions. Science is about "models" and the evidence that accumulates for and against the models. Some models have better support than others.

The best supported scientific model of climate change can be summarized with the I=PAT Model above (sometime called the Kaya Identity and a reasonable simplification of complex Integrated Assessment Models). Population growth (N) leads to more economic production (Q) which leads to greater energy use (E) which leads to greater CO2 emissions which leads to increases in global temperature (T). The competitor model (if the Right Wing can be said to have such a thing) would be that global temperature is a random walk,  T(t) = T(t-1) + U. Tomorrow's global temperature is today's global temperature plus random error, U (unknown).

The random walk competitor model is easily defeated (here). Until someone comes up with a better model and until there is some evidence either for or against that unknown model, the I=PAT model is the best one we have. Arguments about "settled science" do not lead to better models.

The same arguments can be applied to Mammograms, PSA screening for prostate cancer, or any area of scientific interest. First, we have to ask if good models are available. In the case of many medical findings, good models are not available. There are currently few good models for the causes of cancer. Screening is an attempt to find something early before it progresses. Screening would be better if it was less intrusive and if we knew what we were looking for (BRCA1 genetic screening is one example). None of this has anything to do with settled science.

Why the "Free" Market Needs Regulation

The Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire (March 25, 1911) was one of the deadliest industrial disasters in US history. Lest we forget why industrial capitalism needs government regulation and why there are labor unions, you can view the entire PBS American Experience documentary here.

Incredible Short Game Shots from the WGC

MARANA, AZ: The Accenture World Golf Championship (WGC) match play tournament ran all last week and concluded with Jason Day winning the overall title last Sunday. In addition to seeing players hitting drivers and 3-metals over 300 yards (for example, driving 343 yard par 4s) spectators (I was one of them) saw unbelievable short-game shots in all the matches. A collection of the shots are shown in the video above.

There were a couples things I learned from watching the short-game clinic that was being put on: (1) The best players calibrated their shots by taking enough practice swings to get a feel for distance while looking at the hole and then moved into position and hit the shot quickly without freezing over the ball. (2) Most of the shots were played with a square- or even closed-face 60-degree wedge. Very few flop shots were played except to get out of thick rough. (3) The same approach was used for putting: take enough practice swings while looking at the hole to calibrate distance then get up to the ball and hit the putt.

Some of the players who were not only long off the tee but also had great short games: Victor Dubuisson, Jason Day, Ernie Els, and Rickie Fowler--the four finalists. There has to be a lesson here somewhere!

Rory McIlroy Looks Good for the WGC-Accenture Match Play

MARANA, AZ: The World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship starts tomorrow (see the tee times, US Mountain time, here).  On Monday, I followed Rory McIlroy on the back nine at the Dove Mountain Golf Course. He eagled the par 5 in the video above after a great 300+ yard drive (in the video). Rory had a small staff of photographers following him, video-taping each shot from different angles. I asked one of the photographers how he thought Rory was playing right now and the answer was "Great!" as you can see from his swing and the drive in the video above. Rory tees off at 11:25 am Mountain Time against Boo Weekley and we should expect him to play well for the week.

Being from Wisconsin, I have a horse in this race and plan to follow Steve Stricker who has an 8:05 AM match against George Coetzee from South Africa. Steve has not played a professional tour event for 5 months and I will be interested to see how he plays in this match.

If you hit the PLAY ALL button in the video you will also get to see video of Kiradech Aphibarnrat of Thailand who I also followed on Monday. Tomorrow he has a 12:05 PM Mountain Time match against Henrik Stenson, the highest ranked player in the field. Kiradech is the lowest ranked player in the filed and got in to the tournament when Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott chose not to play in the event.

In case you want to handicap these matches:

Rory McIlroy PGA Tour Statistics
Boo Weekley PGA Tour Statistics
Steve Stricker PGA Tour Statistics
George Coetzee PGA Tour Statistics
Henirk Stenson PGA Tour Statistics
Kiradech Aphibarnrat PGA Tour Statistics

Shawn Foley Solves Problems with Stack & Tilt and Width Swings

In a recent article titled Smash Your Irons, professional golf instructor Shawn Foley (Tiger Woods current swing coach) simultaneously solved two problems, one with the Stack & Tilt Swing (S&T) and another with the Width Swing. In this post, I'll run through the issues and Shawn's solution.

I have played extensively with both the Width and the S&T swings and recently had to keep switching back and forth because both old and new problems would keep cropping up. When I was using the Width swing, I would hit the ball fat (an old problem). When I was using the S&T swing, I would starting hitting the ball very low (a new problem).

Luckily, I had a third swing alternative given to me by teaching professional Todd Sinclair. When Todd saw my S&T swing, he didn't like my setup and encouraged me to setup with most of my weight on my right foot and then tilt (rather than "stack" and "tilt"). I tried this for a while but didn't understand why I was doing it and returned to S&T. Then, one of my golf partners read the Foley article in Golf Digest and asked if this wasn't what Todd Sinclair had been telling me. This time I got it!

In the two left panels of the graphic above, Foley demonstrates the difference between the conventional setup and his suggested modification. Here is his explanation:

Instead of trying to keep your upper body back, a few simple adjustments will help you accomplish that and still shift toward the target. First, address the ball with a slight tilt in your shoulders so your spine is angled away from the target. Your left shoulder should be higher than your right (above, left). Also, flare out your left foot a little. This will help you make a powerful body rotation through the shot.

But before you start rotating your hips on the downswing, shift them toward the target a few inches—this should actually start happening before you finish swinging the club back. This blend of lateral and rotary motion is the only way to shift forward correctly and have the power of your body behind the shot (above, right). Do this, and you've got the secret to great ball-striking.

This is an interesting explanation of how to do the "hip shift" which is mentioned in the LAWs of Golf book but never really described. Weight shift involves simply starting with the weight on you rear foot and shifting it to the left foot as you complete your backswing. In order to compress the ball, you need to have your weight stacked on your left foot on the downswing (the position in the right frame in the graphic above--when I do this, I end up with a little more rearward tilt in my back than the S&T prototype and I'll explain why that's not a problem below).

What has not worked for me is the standard S&T setup (left frame in the graphic above), nor the backswing position of the Width Swing (middle graphic) or the "hip shift" position of the Width Swing (right pane in the graphic above). When the weight starts on my left foot, I hit the ball too low. When the weight stays on my right foot, I hit the ball fat.

By adding Todd Sinclair's suggestion (start with weight on your right side then tilt), you end up in an excellent position to compress the ball on the downswing (it's a blended position somewhere between the Width Swing and S&T that produces excellent ball flight). When I do this, I also turn my shoulders more fully because I realize that I need a fuller shoulder turn to get into the stacked position. My head stays just behind the ball (rather then way behind the ball as in the Width Swing) and I can take a more aggressive downswing from the more fully turned position. With the fuller shoulder turn, it also seems easier to get width into my swing without the danger of swaying.

Here's the revised swing sequence:

1. Setup up with weight on your right foot, shoulders tilted, left shoulder high and a relatively straight line from your left shoulder down your arm to the club head. When you do this, the club head will appear open, but this is the right orientation because you are going to hit the S&T "push draw" shot. If this feels uncomfortable or doesn't work or you don't want to move too far away from S&T, you can start with your weight on the left foot but then lean your upper body back as Foley suggests.
2. I like to begin shifting my left hip slightly toward the target before starting my backswing to make sure I do the hip shift properly.
3. Since I know the S&T swing (see the summary here), I just think "Tilt" at this point and make sure to take a full shoulder turn so my back is fully facing the target. If I started out with weight on my left foot, I just make sure my left knee flexes out so I can do the stand-up move (the downward left knee movement starts my backswing and the aggressive stand-up move starts the downswing with the hands being the last to fire--I have the distinct feeling of pulling the club from behind me into impact as I stand up).
4. At the top of the backswing I just think  "swing out" to produce the push draw. I can swing very aggressively without loosing my balance.

One comment I should make is that Todd Sinclair encouraged me to maintain very light grip pressure to allow a full release ("shaking hands with the target"). This is not standard S&T, which encourages a "no-roll" release (see my last post here). I will have more to say about this in a future post.

NOTE: There is some confusion about spine angle and whether it changes or not during the backswing (see a summary here). What has helped me resolve the confusion is an understanding of the difference between the primary and secondary spine angles.

In the graphic above of professional golfer Steve Elkington (from a video here), the primary spine angle is the yellow line in the left panel (the angle of the spine from down the line) and the secondary spine angle is the yellow vertical line in the right panel (the spine angle face on). At setup, the secondary S&T spine angle is close to 0 degrees. Shawn Foley is suggesting a different secondary spine angle. The primary spine angle will be unique to each golfer and depend on body type but will be around 30 degrees. The secondary spine angle will also be unique to the golfer but can vary from 8 degrees at address to 25 degrees at impact (more discussion here). Shawn Foley is suggesting increasing the secondary spine angle more toward the final impact position at address. For me, this had a big positive impact!

Adding More Turn and Width to Heather's Golf Swing

Today one of my golf partners played a round at the Arizona Biltmore golf course in Phoenix, AZ with "the best women golfer I've ever seen." He liked her swing so much that he taped it and sent it to me asking for my analysis. After watching the video, I thought that a few improvement could easily take her game to the next level.

The first thing you will notice from the video is that she is really able to swing hard and generate a lot of club head speed. I wouldn't necessarily change any of this, although I'll talk about her release after hitting the ball below. The problem I see is in her backswing position. Adding more width to her swing would increase her swing arc and thus increase her club head speed.

Consider professional golfer Gary Woodland's swing and a recent article about it titled Woodland's Wide-to-Wide Driver Swing.

Compare the two positions above with Heather's position at the top (in the image below).

The NO! side of Gary Woodlands swing looks pretty much like Heather's position at the top. In order to get into the YES! Width position, Heather would need to turn her hips and upper body more, extend her left arm back into the width dimension and keep her left foot on the ground or at least tilted to the right rather than raised off the ground on her toe. These changes would create a bigger swing arc (imagine a circle from the extended green arrow at the top all the way around to the ball) which could generate more swing speed and power.

Heather's hand release (above) might look unusual given some conventional golf instruction where instructors will tell you to "shake hands with the target," but this is not the only way to release the club. E. A. Tischler in Secrets of Owning Your Golf Swing describes three release patterns: covering, cornering and extending, the last one being "shake hands with the target." 

Jeffrey Mann describes Heather's release as the "no-roll" release (here) and shows Mike Bennet's release from the Stack & Tilt video as an example. This is a part of Heather's swing I would not change and certainly contributes to her accuracy and obvious power. An interesting question is whether Heather would benefit from moving toward the Stack & Tilt swing (just in case she can't get into Gary Woodland's great backswing position). Forward tilt toward the target would help keep her left foot on the ground and allow her to turn her upper body more easily.


Finally, to return to Gary Woodland, my golf partner and I followed Gary during the Waste Management Phoenix Open Pro-Am this year and the video above is one I took of his iron swing on the par 3 12th hole at the TPC Scottsdale course.