Dec 29, 2025. Russia Threatens to Toughen Its Stance on Ending the War in Ukraine In a somewhat bizarre sequence of events, the US President (Donald Trump) had a phone call with the Russian President (Vladimir Putin), had a meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zalenskyy, and then had another call with Vladimir Putin. Without getting into the weird timing and details of these events (Was Trump getting Instructions from Putin? Was Putin looking for a pretext to continue fighting, etc. etc.), it seems that the peace process is in a "stalling mode" and the battlefield has settled into a stalemate. Why is this?
My state space statistical model of the Russian economy is also very unusual compared to other countries in the World-System. The RUL20 model is unstable and highly cyclical, forecast to peak again around 2050 and then collapse (again) after that. In other words, if Ukraine can hold out until 2050, the Russian Empire would collapse again as a results of it's own internal dynamics. But, 25 years is a long time.
Another interesting aspect of the RUL20 model is that the best Geopolitical Alignment for Russia would be for the country to join the European Union (!). Again, maybe the passing of a quarter century would be necessary for that to happen.
Here is a Blog Roll of my postings on Russia:
- Five Futures for Russia Joining the EU provides the best future for Russia!
- Geopolitical Futures for Ukraine Alignment with Russia is positive if cyclical but the best model is Business-As-Usual (no Geopolitical Alignment).
- A New Axis of Evil? Geopolitical alignment of Russia, India and China do not produce attractive model forecasts for any of the countries.
- Futures of Syria Geopolitical Alignment with Russia is OK, but Business-as-usual (no Geopolitical Alignment) is best.
- Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts for the World System In terms of unending, uncontrolled exponential growth, alignment with Russia would be best but the environmental consequences would be quite negative.
- Futures for China Alignment with Russia would produced uncontrolled, unending exponential growth that would have negative environmental consequences.
- US Attempts to Dominate India Geopolitical Alignment with Russia would produce a strongly cyclical future for India with large growth and collapse cycles.
- Seven Futures For Iran Geopolitical alignment with Russia would produce collapse.
- Futures for the World System Dominance by Russia would produce strong cycles of growth and collapse.
- Futures for Argentina Alignment with Russia produces unending, uncontrolled exponential growth and an environmental nightmare.
- Latin American Forecasts Alignment with Russia would produce immediate collapse.
- Forecasts for Columbia Alignment with Russia would produce wild cycles of growth and collapse.
- Futures for Germany Alignment with Russia would produces unstable cycles of growth and collapse.
