Friday, October 30, 2009

Scientific Consensus and the Precautionary Principle

Since scientific consensus is never infallible, how do we respond to the debate between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its critics? One approach is to adopt the precautionary principle: in the absence of infallible scientific consensus, do nothing that might harm either the public or the environment. The burden of proof is then on the critics.

Applying the precautionary principle in practice can be difficult. For example, higher gas prices will reduce CO2 emissions but place an added economic burden on drivers. Rather than applying the precautionary principle issue-by-issue, let's take a broader look at slowing down the overall growth of the economy. One positive benefit of the current Subprime Mortgage Crisis is that reduced economic growth has led to reduced CO2 emissions.

Our current economic system is caught in a vicious positive feedback loop: population increase (either through natural increase or through immigration) leads to greater consumption which leads to greater resource exploitation and more production, which leads to larger emissions and more people seeking a higher standard of consumption. Politicians are also hooked on growth. Today's new programs are funded by future tax revenues resulting from growth. When the system collapses, as it did during the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, public spending programs become unsustainable.

An economy with a slower growth rate or even a steady-state economy would concentrate on development rather than growth: improve the energy efficiency of existing homes (rather than sprawling into the suburbs), increase recycling, improve the quality and durability of products, replace the existing fleet of inefficient vehicles with electric vehicles, replace coal-fired power plants with renewable sources, improve population health and education, etc. Minimally, slower growth would buy time while new, carbon neutral technologies are developed. Or, we could get off the growth treadmill entirely and focus on improving the quality of life for the existing population.

No comments:

Post a Comment