Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Black Thursday, Monday and Tuesday

This week marks the 79th anniversary of the Great Depression. On October 24, 1929 "Black Thursday," the stock market bubble burst and a pool of bankers attempted to prop up the market with an investment of money. On October 28, 1929 "Black Monday," the stock market fell 22.6% as did markets around the world. On October 29, 1929 "Black Tuesday," panic set in and a record 16 millions shares were sold. Reviewing the history of the Great Depression in the middle of the Subprime mortgage crisis (Great Depression II) is particularly salient. One of the best reviews is currently running on the PBS American Experience "The Crash of 1929".

The history of the Great Depression touches a number of current policy questions: (1) Did government policy before the crash create the bubble and did government policy after the crash make the Depression worse? (2) Should we bring back the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 that separated banking and financial organizations and was repealed in 1999? (3) Did the stock market crash cause the Great Depression or were there other forces operating in the US economy and the world system? (4) Is our financial system becoming increasingly unstable with larger boom-and-bust episodes? (5) Did anyone see the Great Depression developing? Did anyone see the Subprime mortgage crisis developing? If they did, how were their forecasts received? (6) Is it even possible to forecast recessions and depressions?

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