The New York Times is reporting that a US DOE loan program combined with cap-and-trade legislation may give new life to the moribund US nuclear power industry. However, the future of nuclear power is not very bright given the problems, to include: "high relative costs; perceived adverse safety; environmental and health effects; potential security risks stemming from proliferation; and unresolved challenges in long-term management of nuclear wastes." A study in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is equally pessimistic given problems with the existing fleet of nuclear power plants.
My own forecasts (using a three-factor index model of the US economy) are more optimistic. Net generating capacity (the top panel above) peaks after 2040 at about a 30% share (lower panel) of total electricity generation.
My forecast should be contrasted with the very pessimistic forecast from the US EIA (the solid line above) compared to my forecast (the dotted line) for net generation in billion kilowatt hours. The EIA forecast is based on an analysis of plans and goals of the nuclear power industry. Time will tell; no one knows the future. The EIA forecast seems more reasonable.
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