UPDATE Dec 13, 2016: The Google Self-Driving Car Project is now Waymo. Tesla has recently recalled 362,000 self-driving vehicles because regulators found the FSD (Full Self-Driving) system increased the risk of crashes. For the present, we have to restrict AI to closed systems such as freeways. Urban driving is an open system and far too complex (see Rebooting AI by Gary Marcus).
At least since 2010, Google has been developing a self-driving car called Google Chauffeur. In 2013, news organizations were reporting (here) that Google wanted to create a fleet of driverless "robo-taxis" similar to the Johnny Cabs (pictured above) in the 1990 movie Total Recall. Needless to say, there are problems with the robo-car idea, but I have a solution (maybe).
The current generation of robo-cars have expensive laser range finders that map out the environment around the car and compare it to precisions maps, something like Google maps street views. These technical capabilities are really just extensions of technology available on current production automobiles such as collision avoidance systems and GPS navigation devices. At the current state of robo-car technology, some problems remain: (1) Not all incidents with human-operated cars can be avoided (here), and (2) The technology has limitations: heavy rain and snow cannot currently be handled; unmarked 4-way intersections must be navigated very conservatively; trash, potholes and debris in the road cannot be identified and humans signaling the car (such as a police officer) cannot be identified.
Recently, I was driving the expressways surrounding Phoenix, AZ (particularly the 101, the 202 and Hwy 60). It doesn't take more than a few hours a driving to observe all sorts of unsafe and reckless driving: speeding, swerving, unexpected lane changes, tailgating, road rage, etc. etc. The achilles heel of the US expressway system is a rush-hour accident caused by unsafe driving at high speeds. Typically, traffic grinds to a halt until the accident scene can be cleared. If you can get into the right-hand lane and get off the expressway, you will often get to your destination more quickly driving through town. As population density increases and freeway traffic increases, the number of accidents and gridlock situations will continue to increase. Adding more lanes to the freeways or adding more freeways is not the answer: at some point land expansion is no longer possible and the expanded freeways only become congested again as traffic expands to meet the lanes available.
Here's my suggested solution to the joint problems of freeway congestion and driverless cars: restrict freeways to robo-cars only! Access to expressways would be controlled with i-Pass technology and could be combined with tolls. Robo-car (or more generally robo-vehicle, to include trucks) technology would have to control speed based on existing conditions and distance from other vehicles based on traffic congestion and speed. The robo-car control could only be over-ridden to slow the car down. There would be no mix of driverless and human-controlled cars. Destinations would be pre-programmed into the navigation system prior to entering the expressway and could not be changed (the ticket-to-ride). Traffic conditions and trip plans would be communicated over the Internet to a map server and would be freely available to humans and to robots. Expressway police patrols would not be needed. Accidents or road blocks resulting from mechanical failures would result in ticket-to-ride reprogramming either into open lanes or off the expressway where human control would take over.
Obviously, this is not a perfectly egalitarian solution. Lower income drivers might be unable to afford robo-car technology and be forced onto the city streets or on to public transportation. Honestly, this is not much different than the current system where the poorest low income commuters are forced onto public transportation and many of the high-mileage older vehicles need to be taken off the road to reduce CO2 emissions. Restricted freeways would force consideration of public transportation options and potential subsidies for robo-cars (similar to or in addition to subsidies for hybrid, high-mileage vehicles).
In any event, large cities in the US Southwest would be great testing grounds for robo-freeway restrictions. Snow and heavy rain (except in the monsoon season when freeways become flooded and should be closed) are not limitations for the technology. As for the idea of robo-taxis, I would be a lot more skeptical since they would have to mix with human-controlled city-street traffic. In case you missed the Johnny Cab (robo-cab) scene from Total Recall, the video clip (below) will help provide an image for the future of robo-cabs.
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