Blog Roll: The United Kingdom (1950-2000+)

 

After Leaving the European Union on on 31 January 2020 (Brexit), Britain's future remains murky. ChatGPT reports that:

ChatGPT also provides a number of background references for this conclusion:

• UK Economy returns to growth, but only just, as Reeves plans budget
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Report -- November 2025
• UK Inflation, OBR 2026 Forecasts
• IFS Economic Outlook for the UK: navigating narrow paths
• IMF: Bank of England Should be 'Very Cautious'

If you are interested in forming your own opinions about the Economy of the United Kingdom, here is a Blog Roll of results from various historical Systems models:

• Six Forecasts for the United Kingdom Some are stable, some are not.
• Technological Change in the United Kingdom Technical Productivity seems to be reaching a Steady State in the UK.
• Should Great Britain Have Exited the European Union? A Great Counterfactual!
• Is the UK Economy Heading for a Steady State? Maybe and maybe not!
• Hegemonic Dominance Not surprisingly, the UK is one of "also rans" in the battle for Hegemonic Dominance of the World System, but that is not necessarily a good thing.

The Economy of the United Kingdom in History:

• The UKL19D Model Collapsing Economy, unstable Export-Urban Population controller.
• The UKE20 Model During the Great Depression, the UK had doubly unstable Growth-Export and Export-Employment Controllers.
• The UKL19 Model During the Late 19th Century, the British economy was unstable and collapsing due to an unstable Urban-Export controller.
• The UK18 Model During the 18th Century, the British Economy was also unstable and collapsing due to an unstable Growth-Export Controller and an Unstable Export-Population Controller. Historically, the UK Economy was saved by the Industrial Revolution.
• The UK17 Model During the 17th Century, the British Economy had an unstable Growth-Exports controller and an unstable Malthusian-Export controller (Exports allowing the economy to growth exponentially.
• The UK16 Model During the 16th Century, the British Economy had an unstable Growth-Export controller and an unstable Urban-Population-Export controller, allowing the economy to growth exponentially.

Technology Long Waves

  

The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I can present some examples.

• The Iranian Economy prior to 1979 and associated Tech Bubble.

Back-of-the-envelope Calculations: Global Warming

In the introductory chapter of  The Demon Haunted World: Science as a candle in the Dark Carl Sagan writes:

It was from [G. P.] Kuiper that I first got a feeling for what is called a back-of--the-envelope calculation: A possible explanation to a problem occurs to you, you pull out an old envelope, appeal to your knowledge of fundamental physics, scribble a few approximate equations on the envelope, substitute in likely numerical values, and see if your answer comes anywhere near explaining your problem. If not, you look for a different explanation, It cut through nonsense like a knife through butter.

Given the controversies that are currently swirling around Climate change (the President of the United States has called it a "hoax"), it would be useful for the non-scientists to have a back-of-the-envelope calculation to "cut through nonsense". There is a simple equation, called the Kaya Identity that would be very useful to understand.

I first became aware of the Kaya Identity on one of the first IPCC reports. The Kaya Identity proves a back-of-the-envelope way to calculate global temperature increase, T, from population growth. The current IPPC report, AR15, doesn't mention it in the introduction but it should. AR15 claims that it is already too late to limit anthropogenic (human caused) climate change. It is  dire warning but how can the non-scientists check the assertion. Let's work through he Kaya identity slowly and see what the calculations tell us.

The first step in the causal chain is the effect of population growth, N,  on economic production, Q. The Kaya equation is Q = qN where q is output per capita. In the Kaya framework, q is called an intensive variable while N and Q are extensive variables.

Blog Roll: The World System (1950-2000+)

 

The World System, typically used by the IPCC to model Global Climate Change, means one system explaining environmental and economic trends of the World. The World-System (notice the hyphen), a term used by World-Systems Theory, refers to a "World of Systems" in which nation states and regions form hierarchical Geopolitical relationships.

Here are some postings I have done from the perspective of both the World System and the World-System:

• Global Temperature Projections Using the World System model, Global Temperature will peak below +1.5 degrees Centigrade. Using the Kaya Model, it will not (goodbye Polar Ice Caps).
• A More Conservative Peak Oil Forecast World Oil production, and the resulting CO2 emissions, might not collapse in 2040.
• Peak Oil and Global Warming Peak Oil Production, at some time in the Future, seems reasonable but "when" is hard to predict.
• World Population Collapse Both the UN and my WL20 model predict that World Population will start to collapse after 2050. If that really happens, there will be ripple effects throughout the Kaya Identity!
• A New Axis of Evil Looks scary but they might be no better at running the World-System than the US.
• Geopolitical Linkages: Canada, Mexico and the US The Trump II Administration is tinkering with a World-System that they do not understand.
• US Attempts to Dominate India In the long-run, it would lead to the collapse of India.
• World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.
• Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts Dominance of the World System by Russia would lead to (1) unending exponential growth and (2) a Dystopian Nightmare.
• Six Futures for the World System The best Future for the World System involves no Hegemonic Leader.
• US CO2 Forecasts Emissions are declining in the US but the best way to reinforce the trend is to let gasoline prices increase, a political non-starter.
• Coal will make Reducing Energy Intensity Difficult Reducing the mining and burning of coal will be difficult and the Trump II Administration is trying to "Greenwash" the problem by rebranding it "Clean Coal," which it isn't.
• EU Gives Up on Climate Regulation! Really? Backtracking might simply be an admission that EU countries are reaching a steady state.
• US CO2 Emission Reduction Unlikely as a result of COP17 Steady-state emissions are more likely rather than reductions.
• World Impact Forecasts More on Impact Models, if you are interested. Impact models do not have feedback effects but they are easy to calculate by hand and maybe feedback effects are weak in the World-System.
• How to Balance the World System Wait for Growth-and-Collapse.

Some of the State Space Dynamic Components models (see the Boiler Plate) for the period 1950-2000+ are available as R-code and can be run here.

Blog Roll: Argentina

 Wikipedia notes (here) that:

Argentina's economy has swung from one of the world's richest in the early 20th century to repeated cycles of boom, bust, and hyperinflation, driven by commodity dependence, political instability, and policy shifts.

The newest shock to the economy has come from president Javier Milei's  Economic Austerity policies which have, evidently, failed and required a $20 Bailout from the Trump II Administration. 

I have a systems model (ARL20) of the Argentine Economy which can be used to investigate (1) the Late 20th and early 21st century Economic History of Argentina and (2) alternative Geopolitical Futures for Argentina and the resulting economic impacts.

• Seven Futures for Argentina Alignment with the US produces Growth-and-Collapse.
• The Bubbly Economy of Argentina Not a pretty picture.
• Latin American Futures Emphasis on Business-as-usual and Technological change provide the most likely futures.

You can experiment yourself with the ARL20 BAU model here.