Blog Roll: Russia

 

Dec 29, 2025. Russia Threatens to Toughen Its Stance on Ending the War in Ukraine In a somewhat bizarre sequence of events, the US President (Donald Trump) had a phone call with the Russian President (Vladimir Putin), had a meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zalenskyy, and then had another call with Vladimir Putin. Without getting into the weird timing and details of these events (Was Trump getting Instructions from Putin? Was Putin looking for a pretext to continue fighting, etc. etc.), it seems that the peace process is in a "stalling mode" and the battlefield has settled into a stalemate. Why is this?

My state space statistical model of the Russian economy is also very unusual compared to other countries in the World-System. The RUL20 model is unstable and highly cyclical, forecast to peak again around 2050 and then collapse (again) after that. In other words, if Ukraine can hold out until 2050, the Russian Empire would collapse again as a results of it's own internal dynamics. But, 25 years is a long time.

Another interesting aspect of the RUL20 model is that the best Geopolitical Alignment for Russia would be for the country to join the European Union (!). Again, maybe the passing of a quarter century would be necessary for that to happen.

Here is a Blog Roll of my postings on Russia:

• Five Futures for Russia Joining the EU provides the best future for Russia!
• Geopolitical Futures for Ukraine Alignment with Russia is positive if cyclical but the best model is Business-As-Usual (no Geopolitical Alignment).
• A New Axis of Evil? Geopolitical alignment of Russia, India and China do not produce attractive model forecasts for any of the countries.
• Futures of Syria Geopolitical Alignment with Russia is OK, but Business-as-usual (no Geopolitical Alignment) is best.
• Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts for the World System  In terms of unending, uncontrolled exponential growth, alignment with Russia would be best but the environmental consequences would be quite negative.
• Futures for China Alignment with Russia would produced uncontrolled, unending exponential growth that would have negative environmental consequences.
• US Attempts to Dominate India Geopolitical Alignment with Russia  would produce a strongly cyclical future for India with large growth and collapse cycles.
• Seven Futures For Iran Geopolitical alignment with Russia would produce collapse.
• Futures for the World System Dominance by Russia would produce strong cycles of growth and collapse.
• Futures for Argentina Alignment with Russia produces unending, uncontrolled exponential growth and an environmental nightmare.
• Latin American Forecasts Alignment with Russia would produce immediate collapse.
• Forecasts for Columbia Alignment with Russia would produce wild cycles of growth and collapse.
• Futures for Germany Alignment with Russia would produces unstable cycles of growth and collapse.

Continuing Imperialist alignments with Russia do not produce attractive outcomes, but unending and uncontrolled exponential growth will be an attractive future for some political-economic elites.

Notes

Wikipedia

Economy of Russia

Shadow Economy of Russia

Economic History of the Russian Federation

Economic History of the Russian Empire

Corruption in Russia

Economy of Ukraine

History of Russia

Russian Empire

Russo-Ukrainian War

Blog Roll: The Great Depression

 

The Great Depression of the Early 20th Century is (and was) a systemic event between World War I and World War II that has been intensely analyzed, if over-analyzed (see References below). The one viewpoint that seems to have been under-analyzed is the perspective of Systems Theory. The following is a Blog Roll of my postings on the topic:

• How do we define Great Depressions? From the standpoint of Systems Theory, not correctly.
• Shock Theories of Great Depressions An obvious but inadequate perspective.
• Did the Great Depression hit at a conjuncture of Technological Change? Maybe, but there have been a lot of Technological Long Waves and Conjunctures.
• Measuring the Great Depression Obsessive focus on the collapse of Gross Domestic product is myopic. 
• The Minsky-Kindleberger Framework So far, the best qualitative systemic framework. It needs to be tested.
• War and Normalcy: (1914-1929)  The Roaring Twenties Bubble was "popped" by the 1929 Stock Market Crash after which the US Economy returned to the long-run attractor path.
• Forecasting the Great Depression in France Not easy (or maybe even possible) since France reinvented itself after WWI and responded very conservatively to the shocks of the Great Depression.

Systems Theory opens up an entirely new perspective on the Great Depression. I will keep adding posts to this Blog Roll until I think I've attacked all the issues and competing explanations.

Notes

Readings

• Peter Fearon (1987) War, Prosperity and Depression, The US Economy 1917-1945. A good summary of the Economic Thinking on the Great Depression
• Charles Kindleberger (2013) World in Depression, 1929-1939 The best understanding of the Great Depression as a World-wide, Systemic Event
• Charles Kindleberger (2015) Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises What causes departures from the Attractor Path 
• US Government (2008) Outline of US History, Chapter 10, War, Prosperity and Depression. The "official" history for the US! 
• Immanuel Wallerstein (2004) World-Systems Analysis: An Introduction
• Ludwig von Bertalanffy (2015) General System Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications Kindle Edition

Blog Roll: Latin America

 

The Trump Administration has resurrected the Monroe Doctrine and added a Trump "Corollary". What effects might be expected from carving the World-System up into Spheres of Influence? Here's a Blog Roll of my postings on Latin America:

• Latin America and the Donroe Doctrine Will the Trump "Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine help Latin America? Unlikely.
  
• Six Futures for Growth of Colombia The most stable Future for Colombia focuses on Globalization. The Colombian BAU model exhibits unstable cycles.
• Growth Forecasts for Venezuela  The best future for Venezuela focuses on Technical Efficiency (not Technical Productivity). For the entire economy, Venezuela is approaching a Steady State. The best controller for Inflation in Venezuela is Globalization.
• Latin American Futures The best future for Latin America is Business-as-Usual (no Geopolitical Alignments). However, the Latin America BAU model is unstable and cyclical.
• Geopolitical Linkages: Canada, Mexico and the US Trade Wars between CA, MX and the US will benefit none of the countries.
• Future Forecasts for the EU The best forecast is to pursue Business-as-Usual with no Geopolitical Alignments.
• Latin American Geopolitical Alignment with China would benefit Latin America but would be resisted by the US.
• Future Forecasts for Argentina Business-as-Usual and Geopolitical Alignment with Russia produce uncontrolled, unstable exponential growth. Growth in Government Expenditure is out of control. Should Argentina take a Random Walk with Shock Therapy? Better System Control is needed in Argentina rather than Shock Therapy. Linking with the Latin American Regional Economy would provide a stable future growth path for Argentina; linking with the US would produce Growth-and-Collapse. Historically, the Economy of Argentina has been through many Economic Bubbles as a result of Political Mismanagement.
• Futures for Growth of Mexico Business-as-Usual and focus on Technical Productivity produce stable growth. Geopolitical Linkage with the World System, the US and China produce Collapse.