We are still suffering from problems poorly resolved at the end of the Long Nineteenth (L19) Century. Systems models look at the L19 as extending from 1800 until well into the 20th Century. My approach is to estimate L19 models on the data from 1800-1899 and then run the models into the 20th Century as if events such as World War I (WWI), the Great Depression, World War II (WWII), the Cold War and other minor Wars of the 20th Century had not happened. In other words, if you had some kinds of models (mental models, mathematical models, whatever) and made 20th Century predictions from these models, what would you have seen. Another way to say this is that if World War I (WWI), the Great Depression and World War II (WWII) had not happened, what would have been the course of 20th Century? These Counterfactuals suggest that the Catastrophes of the Early 20th Century were not inevitable and would have allowed is to live in a very different World today.
Here are some of my postings on the topic:
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