Blog Roll: Afghanistan

 

2 Apr 2026 Afghanistan Update

• The Revenge of Geography
• New Strategy in Afghanistan

Notes

• War in Afghanistan (2001-2021)
• Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989)
• AF_L20 Model The model is an unstable Moving Average model that can be stabilized (instructions in the code).

The Revenge of Geography

On Fareed Zakaria GPS, Fareed interviewed Robert D. Kaplan (video above). Mr Kaplan's thesis is that geography constrains the distribution of power within the World system and largely encourages particular outcomes in the balance of power between nations.

His analysis of geography leads him to the conclusion that Russian, Iran, Afghanistan, and Mexico will be the dominant powers in the future of the World System. World System theory, on the other hand,

The New Strategy in Afghanistan

A new report by Jeffrey A. Dressler "Securing Helmand: Understanding the Enemy".

Blog Roll: Israel

Up to the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War and since WWII, Israel has been involved in Seven Wars in the Middle East. Google AI Warns:

At the same time, the causes of the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War are entangled with the legal problems of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

In my lifetime, there has never been peace in the Middle East and there has never been a US President serving with a lengthy record of Impeachments and criminal prosecutions. The day-to-day Political Events are surely a Random Walk, but there must be some causal structure in the long-term models.

Here is a Blog Roll of my posting on Israel:

• Alternative Geopolitical Alignments for Israel Nothing very realistic.
• What If Israel was the Hegemonic Leader of the Middle East It depends on whether you value a Steady State Economy or not.
• A Steady State Economy for Israel is possible but unlikely given the ongoing Regional War.
• Cycles and Steady State for Israel Geopolitical Alignment with the US will create continuing cycles of development in the future.
• Technological Change in Israel Learning-by-Doing is the most important source of Technical Change and is driven by the Military, Economic, and Geopolitical challenges Israel faces.

None of my models predict Peace in the Middle East! 

Notes

More readings:

• Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters
• The Crisis in the Middle East is a Crisis of Growth
• The Myth of Israel Innovation

You can run the IL_L20 model, written in R-code, here. Instructions in the code show how to stabilize the system. Other models for the Middle East and North Africa are available here.

The Peace Process

• Abraham Accords a set of agreements that established diplomatic normalization between Israel and several Arab states, beginning with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
• Oslo Accords a pair of interim agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): the Oslo I Accord, signed in Washington, D.C., in 1993;^[1] and the Oslo II Accord, signed in Taba, Egypt, in 1995.
• Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty following the 1978 Camp David Accords, the Egypt–Israel treaty was signed by Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt, and Menachem Begin, Prime Minister of Israel, and witnessed by Jimmy Carter, President of the United States.
• Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty an agreement that ended the state of war that had existed between the two countries since the 1948 Arab–Israeli War and established mutual diplomatic relations.
• Gaza Peace Plan a multilateral agreement between Israel and Hamas that aims to address the ongoing Gaza war and broader Middle Eastern crisis.
• Two-State Solution a proposed approach to resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, by creating two states on the territory of the former Mandatory Palestine.
• Arab-Israel Normalization since the 1970s, a parallel effort to find terms upon which peace can be agreed to in the Arab–Israeli conflict and also specifically the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

The Combatants

• Axis of Resistance
• Hamas
• Houthis
• Hezbollah 
• Islamic Jihad
• Qasem Soleimani 
• Quds Force
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
• Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq
• Palestinian militant organizations
• Shia insurgency in Iraq
• Russian involvement in the Syrian civil war
• Muslim Brotherhood
• Ali Khamenei
• Shiite Islam
• Naim Qassem
• Bashar al-Assad

The Map

Blog Roll: Middle East North Africa (MEA)

 

The Middle East and North Africa (MEA) are in turmoil right now as a result of the US-Israel-Iran 2026 War. The video above provides geographical overview of the MEA Countries.

This post presents a Blog Roll of the WL20 MEA Model and other country models I have estimated. 

For more information on Data Sources and how the models were estimates, see the Boiler Plate.

• The WL20R MEA BAU Model
• Blog Roll: The BRICS
• Blog Roll: Energy Transition
• Blog Roll: Climate Change
• Blog Roll: The United States
• Blog Roll: Russia
• Blog Roll: Latin America
• Blog Roll: The United Kingdom
• Blog Roll: The World System
• Blog Roll: The EU
• Blog Roll: Venezuela
• Blog Roll: Ukraine
• Trump's Trade War
• Blog Roll: Syria
• Blog Roll: Iran

Notes

You can run the WL20R MEA BAU model, which is written in R-code, here. Instructions in the code allow you to run alternative futures.

Stooges Third Reich Putdown