Why should we be interested in the Middle Ages? Right after the Fall of Rome (500 AD) the Middle Ages (500-1500) started with a period that used to be called the Dark Ages, a period after Societal Collapse. Since the publication of the Limits to Growth in 1974 that predicted collapse of the World System by 2100 due to resource exhaustion (see graphic below) and environmental degradation (IPCC), the possibility of Societal Collapsecan no longer be ignored with wishful thinking.
The Dark Ages and the Middle Ages are our best example, from Western Society, of what a period of collapse might look like.
This blog provides a listing of my postings on the Middle Ages. I have estimated State Space statistical models of the World System, the major World Regions and countries (see the Boiler Plate for data sources and how the models were constructed).
Late Middle AgesAround 1350, centuries of prosperity and growth in Europe came to a halt. A series of famines and plagues, including the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the Black Death, reduced the population to around half of what it had been before the calamities. Along with depopulation came social unrest and endemic warfare.
Feudalisma combination of various customs and systems that flourished in medieval Europe from the 9th to 15th centuries. Broadly defined, it was a way of structuring society around relationships derived from the holding of land in exchange for service or labour.
Common Misconceptions About the Middle Ages State fragmentation and competition characterized much of the history of medieval Western Europe, and that trend would remain true for a long period of history afterwards.
Medieval TechnologyAfter the Renaissance of the 12th century, medieval Europe saw a radical change in the rate of new inventions, innovations in the ways of managing traditional means of production, and economic growth.
We are still suffering from problems poorly resolved at the end of the Long Nineteenth (L19) Century. Systems models look at the L19 as extending from 1800 until well into the 20th Century. My approach is to estimate L19 models on the data from 1800-1899 and then run the models into the 20th Century as if events such as World War I (WWI), the Great Depression, World War II (WWII), the Cold War and other minor Wars of the 20th Century had not happened. In other words, if you had some kinds of models (mental models, mathematical models, whatever) and made 20th Century predictions from these models, what would you have seen. Another way to say this is that if World War I (WWI), the Great Depression andWorld War II (WWII) had not happened, what would have been the course of 20th Century? These Counterfactuals suggest that the Catastrophes of the Early 20th Century were not inevitable and would have allowed is to live in a very different World today.
The purpose of my blogs is to estimate Systems Models, specifically Dynamic Component Models, on historical data. My reason for the project are: (1) The historical data is widely available, (2) current analysis is largely based on mental models and (3) no one seems to be applying Systems models. The reason for point three is that historical data are highly correlated and co-linear. My contribution is to use Principal Components Analysis to implement the Satet Space and solve the co-linearity problem using correlations.
The unique aspect of my blogs, Google sites and work over the last 50 years is that I have estimated State Space Dynamic Component Models (DCM) for all the major countries and regions in the World-System from the year (0) until the present (for more information about periodization, data sources and how the models are constructed, see the Boiler Plate).
The video above explains State Space Systems models which are commonly used in Engineering (not Economics, History or the Social Sciences). What is unique about the DCM models is the definition of System state and how the State Space is constructed:
The state of any system is the collection of independent variables that predict the time path of the system from t1 to tn.
DCMs can be run using R-code on my Google Site, which is organized basically by regions of the World-System, by topicsand by time periods (for example, the Long Twentieth Century).
The Classic EconomistsInterestingly enough, the Classical Economists had more affinity with Systems Theory than do the Neoclassical Economists. Classical Economic models can be easily translated in Systems Theory.
I use my blogs to make informal comments on policy topics related to my research interests in the World-System, computer simulation of the US Health Care System, the US Economy, the US Stock Market, and the US Financial System. I am retired from the University of Wisconsin -- Madison. I have taught Statistics and Computer Science and also served on the UW's HIPAA Task Force and the Bioterrorism Task Force. I have also been a member of my local planning commission, a jazz guitarist and a golfer, so some of that may find its way into the blogs.