Doomsday 2012

Will the World end in 2012? Evidently, some people are worried by ancient Mayan prophecies. "If you want to worry, most scientists say, you should think about global climate change, rogue asteroids or nuclear war."

Moonstruck Lunacy

Predictably, NASA's $79 million mission to crash the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) into the moon succeeded beyond expectations, kicking up 25 gallons of water. Regardless of this space spectacular, the Moon is still dryer than any dessert on Earth. Not many people live and work in Death Valley. Why is NASA so excited about this finding and why are we fixated on the Moon?

The Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee has just released its final report and NASA is worried. The committee is trying to scale back NASA's budget and reduce the cost of space exploration recommending that (1) astronauts be lifted to low-Earth orbit using private resources and (2) NASA bypass the Moon to concentrate on unmanned flight to more remote planets in the Solar System. But NASA and the rocket jockeys that are all over cable news today want to go to the moon.

Why are we doing this? "The Committee concludes that the ultimate goal of human exploration is to chart a path for human expansion into the solar system." Really? Humanity has not expanded into Death Valley. There is no planet, asteroid or moon in our Solar System that is inhabitable. Travel beyond our Solar System within the currently understood limits of physics would subject humans, unprotected by Earth's atmosphere, to severe radiation. Is human space flight just delusional escapism?

Actually, this is all about a Federal agency and the interest groups that inevitably form around agencies with large budgets, trying to maintain it's budget. Space flight has produced few scientific advances (see my earlier post) and the money being wasted here is desperately needed for Federal Energy R&D. If NASA's R&D budget was immediately transfered to DOE, the budget for energy R&D would be doubled--exactly what's needed right now.

Is there a role for NASA in the real world? Currently NASA is on a crusade to convince the public that the world is not coming to an end on December 21, 2012 as predicted by the Hollywood movie 2012. There are popular beliefs about an apocalypse in 2012 fueled in part by NASA's own predictions about the most intense Solar maximum in fifty years scheduled for 2012. All this seems an appropriate example of mass hysteria as a result of a society and Federal agency under stress. We need right now to deal with the world we're living in which is also under a lot of stress.

The Moon Is Still A Harsh Mistress

NASA just crashed a bus-size projectile into the moon looking for water. The mission is a result of earlier findings that water molecules exist on the surface of the moon. The moon still remains dryer that any desert on Earth and may contain about 32 ounces of water over the entire surface. This amount of water isn't enough to support a lunar base without importing heavy, expensive water from Earth, so what's behind this flurry of activity from NASA?

The figure above displays forecasts from one of my time series models of the US economy. The model forecasts the Federal R&D budgets for Space (FED.RD.SPACE.) and Energy (FED.RD.ENERGY.). Although there was a drop in Federal expenditure for Space R&D, the forecast is for continuing growth after 2010. Federal expenditure for Energy R&D, on the other hand, has been declining since the mid-1990's.

Something is wrong with this picture and other commentators have noticed. Space exploration has produced few scientific advances that could not have been achieved without manned space flight. From an economic perspective, manned space flight makes little sense. Let's redirect Federal R&D toward Energy, resist NASA's space spectaculars, and leave space flight to the super-rich who want to travel with Virgin Galactic.