Russia is Burning

Shown above is a prediction for the year 2065 from the NOAA/GFDL CM2.1 Climate Model. Most of the World's land masses are predicted to be well above average temperatures for 1971-2000. What might be the consequences of global temperature change at this level?

Consider what is happening right now in Russia: This year, Russia recorded the hottest day (100 degrees) since record-keeping began in 1880. Wild fires continue to burn out of control. Smoke from the fires has substantially increased air pollution in Moscow. Russia's state environmental agency concluded in 2008 that Russia was warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. As a result of the heat and drought, Russia has banned the export of wheat while US wheat exports are booming.

Here's the causal model:

Positive signs on arrows are implied while two negative signs in a row (drought reducing the Russian wheat harvest which is negatively related to the US wheat harvest) are read as a positive impact (as discussed last week in Global Change). For good measure, throw in the floods in Pakistan (more energy in the atmosphere generating stronger monsoons).

Right now, the environment (especially climate change) seems to no longer be an issue in Washington yet, Russia is burning. In 2065, the NOAA model predictions for the US are not reassuring, but that's 55 years from now and elections are in less than two months.

The Russian ban on wheat exports is also creating the potential for a world-wide food crisis. The NY Times, in an editorial, asks that Russia learn from the last food crisis caused in part by demand for biofuels (another environmental issue) and not pursue "misguided polices". Imagine the rationality of policy making if world temperature increases by a few more degrees by 2065.