Blog Roll: Israel

Up to the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War and since WWII, Israel has been involved in Seven Wars in the Middle East. Google AI Warns:

At the same time, the causes of the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War are entangled with the legal problems of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

In my lifetime, there has never been peace in the Middle East and there has never been a US President serving with a lengthy record of Impeachments and criminal prosecutions. The day-to-day Political Events are surely a Random Walk, but there must be some causal structure in the long-term models.

Here is a Blog Roll of my posting on Israel:

• Alternative Geopolitical Alignments for Israel Nothing very realistic.
• What If Israel was the Hegemonic Leader of the Middle East It depends on whether you value a Steady State Economy or not.
• A Steady State Economy for Israel is possible but unlikely given the ongoing Regional War.
• Cycles and Steady State for Israel Geopolitical Alignment with the US will create continuing cycles of development in the future.
• Technological Change in Israel Learning-by-Doing is the most important source of Technical Change and is driven by the Military, Economic, and Geopolitical challenges Israel faces.

None of my models predict Peace in the Middle East! 

Notes

More readings:

• Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters
• The Crisis in the Middle East is a Crisis of Growth
• The Myth of Israel Innovation

You can run the IL_L20 model, written in R-code, here. Instructions in the code show how to stabilize the system. Other models for the Middle East and North Africa are available here.

Blog Roll: Middle East North Africa (MEA)

 

The Middle East and North Africa (MEA) are in turmoil right now as a result of the US-Israel-Iran 2026 War. The video above provides geographical overview of the MEA Countries.

This post presents a Blog Roll of the WL20 MEA Model and other country models I have estimated. 

For more information on Data Sources and how the models were estimates, see the Boiler Plate.

• The WL20R MEA BAU Model
• Blog Roll: The BRICS
• Blog Roll: Energy Transition
• Blog Roll: Climate Change
• Blog Roll: The United States
• Blog Roll: Russia
• Blog Roll: Latin America
• Blog Roll: The United Kingdom
• Blog Roll: The World System
• Blog Roll: The EU
• Blog Roll: Venezuela
• Blog Roll: Ukraine
• Trump's Trade War
• Blog Roll: Syria
• Blog Roll: Iran

Notes

You can run the WL20R MEA BAU model, which is written in R-code, here. Instructions in the code allow you to run alternative futures.

Stooges Third Reich Putdown

Serious Nuclear Weapons Accidents on US Territory! Really?

The PBS American Experience Documentary Command and Control documents the deadly 1980 accident at a Titan II missile complex in Damascus, Arkansas. The footage was actually shot at the Titan Missile Museum outside Tucson, Arizona (a scene breakdown is available here). I visited the Museum last year and here's a brief review of the Museum and the documentary.

Blog Roll: Spain

 

Mar 3, 2026 Spain is in the news today because it denied US permission to use jointly operated bases to attack Iran. Spain is one of the few EU countries that has stood up to the US against the war with Iran. chatGPT notes that:

and that 

Here are some of my posts on Spain:

• Why is it Important to Study Spain? To understand the US South West and Latin America, you must understand Spain.
• Blog Roll: Mexico A major player in Latin America.
• Power Outage in Spain and Portugal provided shocks to each economy that can be analyzed.
• The Economy of Spain can be stabilized by Reducing Growth Rates Unlikely!
• The Mystery of Why Portugal's Economy is Performing so Poorly. The economy is moving toward a Steady State.

Notes

You can run the ESL20 model yourself using R-code here.

Blog Roll: How Germany Became Europe's Richest Country

The video above lists 10 reasons why Germany has become so wealthy. According to chatGPT:

Also, according to chatGPT, Germany is facing a number of problems:

Here are some of my posts on Germany:

• Six Futures for Germany  These future forecasts point toward a Steady-State Economy or worse!
• Has Germany Become a Steady State Economy? Very likely!
• Compare Germany to other EU Countries German is in the "Steady-State Economy" category.
• Blog Roll: EU For other comparisons.

Notes

You can run the DEL20 model in R-code here.

Blog Roll: Italy

 

Under Giogia Meloni's leadership, Italy (IT) has stared to play a more visible role in the European Union (EU). According the chaGPT, IT has always been an important member:

Here are some of my posts on Italy:

• Austerity is Easy, Growth Isn't Steady-State Economies are on the horizon.
• Italy and the Financial Crisis Make the debt go away, Please!
• Inequality Forecasts for Italy Not Great!
• Geopolitical Alignment Forecasts for Italy Stick with the EU.
• The ITL20 Model Stable, Steady-State Model. You can run it yourself!

The major problems facing Italy, according to Chat GPT, are:

All these issue can be explored with the ITL20 model.

 

Notes

Run the ITL20 Model in R-code (here)

Blog Roll: India

From Google AI:

The WL20 India Model in R-Code.
 

Blog Roll: The BRICS

 

The BRICS is an intergovernmental organization comprising ten countries: Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. The initial four BRIC states were Brazil, Russia, India, and China). As an  intergovernmental organization, the  BRICS are designed to be a counter-weight to US Hegemonic Dominance.

Here are some of my postings on the BRICS countries:

• Six Futures of China One Scary.
• Five Futures for Russia One Surprising.
• US Attempts to Dominate India Trade Wars and Tariffs.
• Seven Futures for Brazil US Geopolitical Linkage is still best.

Blog Rolls

• China
• Russia
• India
• Brazil

Blog Roll: Energy Transition

 

11 February 2026  

The magazine Nature concluded (here and here) that even though there is a lot of progress to report on the transition away from Fossil fuels "The transition to cleaner forms of energy are not happening fast enough to avoid dangerous climate change". Here are some of my posts on the Energy Transition:

• World CO2 Emissions We are not really "bending the curve"!
• Global Temperature Projections Using the World System model, Global Temperature will peak below +1.5 degrees Centigrade. Using the Kaya Model, it will not (goodbye Polar Ice Caps).
• A More Conservative Peak Oil Forecast World Oil production, and the resulting CO2 emissions, might not collapse in 2040.
• Peak Oil and Global Warming Peak Oil Production, at some time in the Future, seems reasonable but "when" is hard to predict.
• World Population Collapse Both the UN and my WL20 model predict that World Population will start to collapse after 2050. If that really happens, there will be ripple effects throughout the Kaya Identity!
• World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.
• Six Futures for the World System The best Future for the World System involves no Hegemonic Leader.
• US CO2 Forecasts Emissions are declining in the US but the best way to reinforce the trend is to let gasoline prices increase, a political non-starter.
• Coal will make Reducing Energy Intensity Difficult Reducing the mining and burning of coal will be difficult and the Trump II Administration is trying to "Greenwash" the problem by rebranding it "Clean Coal," which it isn't.
• Is There a Role of Nuclear Power? It shpuld be one of the Stabilizing Wedges!
• EU Gives Up on Climate Regulation! Really? Backtracking might simply be an admission that EU countries are reaching a steady state.
• US CO2 Emission Reduction Unlikely as a result of COP17 Steady-state emissions are more likely rather than reductions.
• World Impact Forecasts More on Impact Models, if you are interested. Impact models do not have feedback effects but they are easy to calculate by hand and maybe feedback effects are weak in the World-System.
• How to Balance the World System Wait for Growth-And-Collapse.

Blog Roll: Mexico

 

Feb 24, 2026 Mexico on edge following drug lord’s killing

Mexico is semi-peripheral country in the World-System. Why isn't it a Core Country?

  

This blog explores the question of Mexico' role in the World-System.

• Eight Futures for Mexico The best future for Mexico would be Business-as-Usual (BAU), that is no Geopolitical alignments. Geopolitical with the US would produce a steady state while linkage with China (CN) would be the worst, creating collapse.
• Geopolitical Linkages: Canada, Mexico and the US.The Trump II Administration does not understand the World Trade System.
• Latin America and the Donroe Doctrine US attempts to destroy the Rule-Based World Order and become a regional Hegemon involve dominating both North and South America.
• Latin America Futures  The best future for Latin America is Business-as-Usual (BAU), that is, no Geopolitical Linkages.
• Unstable System Cycles in Latin America Another reason not to pursue Geopolitical Linkage with Latin America!
• Why is it important to study Spain?  Spanish Culture is a strong force in the Southwestern United States and, of course, in Latin America.  The US Government understands none of this and would be an awful Regional Hegemon.

You can run the MXL20 model and other statistical models for Latin America here.

Blog Role: Climate Change

March 22, 2026 The Balance That Keeps Climate Stable Is Out of Whack, U.N. Report Finds

Feb 10, 2026. The NY Times is reporting that Trump Allies Near ‘Total Victory’ in Wiping Out U.S. Climate Regulation. Right-wing Conservative Zealots have been working on destroying the Clean Air Act since it was enacted in 1963. With the help of a Conservative Supreme Court and a poorly administered Environmental Protection Agency, they appear to be on the verge of success.

Here is a blog roll of my posts on Climate Change:

• A Primer on Climate Change Denial Scientific Consensus: the World is Warming and it is due to Human (Anthropogenic) forces.
• Climate Feedbacks and Climate Change Denial Feedback effects are too weak to overcome uncontrolled exponential growth in emissions.
• Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) Computer models that implement the current state of scientific knowledge on Climate Change. Climate Change Deniers offer no comparable models.
• Back of the Envelope calculations on Global Warming. So you don't believe the IAMS? You can do the calculations yourself on a piece of scrap paper (HINT: they won't support Climate Change Denial).
• Is the "Settled Science" Argument a Straw Man?  Scientific consensus is never "settled" but a few wack-a-doodle books, articles and arguments don't destroy it.
• Is there a role for Nuclear Power in reducing CO2 Emissions? Maybe.
• What do "Intelligent Design" and "Climate Change Denial" have in common? Wack-a-doodle arguments.
• The most important IPCC Graphic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the UN has been working since 1988 to document the scientific consensus on Climate Change. It has produced a lot of documentation which has been difficult for Climate Change Deniers to digest. Here is a simple graphic comparing anthropogenic and natural climate forcings.
• Earth System Complexities  Needless to say, the World Environmental System has a level of complexity that eludes computer models and qualitative commentaries. Here's a simple flow chart.
• Why are Winters getting Colder? A favorite argument of Climate Change Deniers (here), but there is a scientific explanation.
• What is Conservative Philosophy really about? Self-dealing.
• Russia is Burning. Climate Change is real in Russia (so Let's Invade Ukraine).
• Are there Feedback Loops that could control Energy Use and CO2 Emissions? Maybe, but they are not strong enough to prevent Climate Change.
• Hottest Years on Record are difficult to explain away.
• A Global Warming Denial based on Vapor Hiss and Poof!
• Carbon Accounting and Policy What is the Carbon Cycle and why isn't it in balance?
• Scientific Consensus and the Precautionary Principle. If you still think Climate Change isn't real, what is a rational response?
• CO2 Emissions and Ocean Acidification The CO2 has to go somewhere and the fish and aquatic plants (e.g. coral) don't like it.
• Why Climate Change will lead to more Hurricanes. The energy pumped into the atmosphere has to go somewhere!
• An Inconvenient Half-Truth Will sea-level rise flood New York and Trump's Mar-a-Lago?
• The Dangers of Environmentalism Is the Environmental Movement inspired by the Devil?
• Why Science is never settled. It's an iterative system.
• Feedbacks from Ecosystem Pressure. Can we adapt our way out of any Environmental Crisis?
• Are Carbon Markets back from the Dead? Economists once argued that Carbon Markets (trading emission rights for mitigations) could solve the Climate problem. They were wrong, but Free-Market Environmentalism will never die.
• Controlling CO2 Emissions. One way is to have a permanent Global Financial Crisis.

Projections from My State Space Models

So IAMS, paper-and-pencil calculations and opinionated blather are not good enough for the Skeptical Environmentalist? Here are results from my own, statistically estimated models:

• Blog Roll: The World System (1950-2000+) No support for Climate Change Deniers here.

Blog Roll: China

 

Since 2009 under the Obama administration, US Foreign policy has shifted toward Asia, sometimes called the Asia-Pivot. Google AI:

Over time, according to ChatGPT:

All the R-code for my East-Asia Pacific (EAP) models are published here. Here are some of the Blog postings I have done using these models:

• China's Long Malthusian Crisis After Mao's Death A Malthusian Controller and an Unemployment-Globalization controller have dominated the development of China during the Long 20th Century.
• Six Futures for China: One Scary Geopolitical linkage with Russia is scary!
• What If the World System was Dominated By China? The result would be stable growth (Huh)?
• China and the Global South It's not uniformly good or bad!
• A New Axis of Evil China, Russia and India Geopolitical alignment: the result for the World System is collapse!
• Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts If you want unstable unending, unstable exponential growth, China is not the best Hegemon!

For more on the Rule-Based World Order (RBO) see my post here.

Notes

Wikipedia

• China
• History of China
• The Economy of China
• East Asia
• Nuclear Weapons of China
• Nuclear Power in China
• China-US Trade War
• Politics of China
• Mass Surveillance in China
• Socialism with Chinese Characteristics
  
  

State Space Models

For more information about how the models are created, see the Boiler Plate.

• CN2000
• CN21
• EAP BAU
• CN_LM Model (Late Modern)
• CN1 Model
• WL20 China 2000

Blog Roll: The US Federal Reserve

 

Jan 30, 2026 Trump Nominates Kevin M. Warsh to become the next Fed Chair and Paul Krugman thinks Warsh isn't qualified.

There are currently bills before the US Congress and Chapter 24 in Project 2025 (the Conservative Manifesto) calling for the US Federal Reserve to be abolished. Google AI Reports:

The following reasons are given:

These arguments can be debated. However, what interests me is the argument for more Federal Reserve Transparency and Automation and I have been posting on that topic:

• Trump vs. The Federal Reserve President Trump (and a lot of other politicians) want lower interest rates to stimulate investment. The Fed has been keeping interest rates above the Attractor path given Trump's erratic economic policies. And, there are lots of problems the Fed is facing in setting interest rates too low.
• What Impact is the Fed Having on the Dual Mandate? Some politicians argue the Fed has too much power but the data shows that Fed policy manipulations don't have major effects.
• Could the Fed be replaced by a Computer Program? No, but more automation, communication, public input and transparency would help (and could be a model for other Federal Agency reform).
• Four Regimes for Fed OS 1.0 The main problem with totally automating the Federal Reserve is what to do during Economic Crises. In addition to Business as Usual (BAU), three crises regimes can be identified statistically where human judgment is needed.
• Why does the Fed no longer try to control the Money Supply? It was found to be a weak policy variable and this post provides the data and a model.
• Project 2025 and the Federal Reserve An unbalanced collection of Wack-a-Doodle proposals from the far Right Wing.

Over time, I will have a lot more to say about Federal Reserve and automation of other Federal Government agencies. Given the dismal performance of the Trump II administration and the mistake of Big Tech for support of Right-Wing Agendas, it is time to start thinking out of the box!

Blog Roll: The United States

 

The United States is facing a large number of problems right now. And, it does not appear that the Trump II Administration policies are addressed to solving any of them. Here are the problems and their interconnections as reported by ChatGPT (see the graphic below) 

Briefly, the Political System (top of the graphic below) has created economic, social, technological and geopolitical pressures that have led to declining state capacity. The arrows show reinforcing causal links that make the problems difficult to address.

Is the US in the Fifth Stage of Collapse as argued by the video above?

 

Results from the USL20 model (above) suggest that the US along with the World System (WL20 model) are to slow down and will reach a peak somewhere between 2040 and 2070.

A Blog Roll of my postings on the  US economy mostly using the USL20 model follows:

• Alternate Futures for the US The current administration (Trump II) envisions a Business-As-Usual future of unlimited, unstable exponential growth. A more realistic Geopolitical model would link the US to the World System.
• US CO2 Emission Reductions Unlikely  The Trump II has done everything they can to disable Climate Policy and my forecasts are for CO2 emissions to stabilize at current levels (rather than be reduced) well past 2040.
• Why is Hardship Increasing in the US? Again, Business-as-usual (BAU) Policies of the Trump II do nothing to reduce hardship in the US.
• Geopolitical Linkages to Canada and Mexico. The Trump II administrations threatening policies toward North and South American countries are not facilitating a stable Geopolitical Environment. It would be better if North and South American countries found ways to link to the World System and benefit each other. US Hegemonic Leadership is not producing stability.
• US Inflation By Administration. The long-range attractor path predicts low levels of inflation for the US.
• US Unemployment. The attractor path for unemployment is expected to stabilize at around 9%, much higher than FED 2% targets.
• Alternate Forecasts for US CG Debt Debt is not out of control but that doesn't mean it won't keep increasing for a long time.
• Is the US in a Debt Crisis? The US has been in a Debt Crisis since 2010 (Debt significantly above the Attractor Path) but the future forecast is for peak-and-decline.

For the ULS203 Model, the primary state variables are:

US1 = (Overall Growth-Exports-Banks-CPU), US2 = Financial Markets (P.US.TBILL + P.CPAPER.  + P.FED.FUNDS. - Globalization), US3 = (L.US.U + GDP.X. +P.S.P.DPR + P.S. P.EPR. + P.FUELS. + Globalization - Q.H.Starts.) where  + P.S.P.DPR + P.S. P.EPR.= corporate performance. 

The ULS203 Model is nonlinear and unstable but only has one eigenvalue > 1.0-- it is essentially a moving average model. The USL20W Model (World Model) is also a moving average model but is linear and can be stabilized.

US Interconnected Problems

Blog Roll: Brazil

Jan 5, 2026. After the Invasion of Venezuela by the Trump Administration, Brazil lined up as one of the Latin American countries that condemned the attack (here). It was also one of the Latin American countries hit hard by Trump Tariffs.

Coffee is a good example (graphic above from Trading Economics). In 2025, Trump imposed tariffs on Brazilian coffee and prices in the super market begin to rise and Trump's approval ratings begin to decline. One November 20, 2025, Reuters reports (here) that Trump lifted the tariffs. Trump had been arguing that even though tariffs were taxes, they would be paid by the importers. That turned out not to be true (something Trump could have learned in ECON 101).

Here is a Blog Roll of my other postings on Brazil:

• Seven Futures for Brazil Alignment with the US or the other Latin American Countries (LAC) is best.

Boiler Plate

Boiler Plate is provided with each of the blogs describing State Space models, data sources and how the models are created. For example: here.

Are Carbon Markets Back from the Dead?

 It was reported in the New York Times here that the Biden administration had been issuing new guidelines for carbon offsets and carbon markets. If you have been following Free Market ideas about  how to control Climate Change you might have concluded that Carbon Markets were exposed as Greenwashing designed in the marketing departments of Big Businesses. But, the proposals are back again from the dead, being pushed by the Biden administration in an election year.  What gives? And, will these ideas be supported by the Trump Administration (HINT: only if they make money again for Big Business)?