April 21, 2026 · China has been quietly and quickly building an island in disputed waters off of the coast of Vietnam over the last few months.
Since 2009 under the Obama administration, US Foreign policy has shifted toward Asia, sometimes called the Asia-Pivot. Google AI:
Over time, according to ChatGPT:
All the R-code for my East-Asia Pacific (EAP) models are published here. Here are some of the Blog postings I have done using these models:
- China's Long Malthusian Crisis After Mao's Death A Malthusian Controller and an Unemployment-Globalization controller have dominated the development of China during the Long 20th Century.
- Six Futures for China: One Scary Geopolitical linkage with Russia is scary!
- What If the World System was Dominated By China? The result would be stable growth (Huh)?
- China and the Global South It's not uniformly good or bad!
- A New Axis of Evil China, Russia and India Geopolitical alignment: the result for the World System is collapse!
- Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts If you want unstable unending, unstable exponential growth, China is not the best Hegemon!
For more on the Rule-Based World Order (RBO) see my post here.
Notes
Wikipedia
- China officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia.
- History of China history of China spans several millennia across a wide geographical area. Each region now considered part of the Chinese world has experienced periods of unity, fracture, prosperity, and strife.
- The Economy of China a developing socialist market economy, incorporating industrial policies and strategic five-year plans.
- East Asia a geocultural region of Asia. It includes China, Japan, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan,[2][3] plus two special administrative regions of China, Hong Kong and Macau.
- Nuclear Weapons of China China's stockpile of nuclear weapons is the world's third-largest, estimated at 620 nuclear warheads as of 2026.
- Nuclear Power in China As of April 2026, 62 nuclear power plants are operational in mainland China, second globally to the United States, which has 94.
- China-US Trade War An economic conflict between China and the United States has been ongoing since January 2018, when U.S. president Donald Trump began imposing tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the aim of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. has said are longstanding unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.
- Politics of China In the People's Republic of China, politics functions within a communist state framework based on a system of people's congress under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
- Mass Surveillance in China the network of monitoring systems used by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Chinese government to monitor Chinese citizens.
- Socialism with Chinese Characteristics The term was first established by Deng Xiaoping in 1982 and was largely associated with Deng's overall program of adopting elements of market economics as a means to foster growth using foreign direct investment and to increase productivity (especially in the countryside where 80% of China's population lived) while the CCP retained both its formal commitment to achieve communism and its monopoly on political power.
State Space Models
For more information about how the models are created, see the Boiler Plate.
- CN2000 Growth rates have to be stabilized or unstable growth continues forever.
- CN21 Growth collapses (negative feedback from historical controllers) unless growth rates are stabilized
- EAP BAU The East Asia Pacific region is unstable unless growth rates are reduced.
- CN_LM Model (Late Modern) In this model, that includes Exports, growth rates must also be stabilized particularly in the Export-Employment historical controllers.
- CN1 Model In this model, input from the World System puts the Economy of China into Stable Growth-and-Collapse mode.
- WL20 China 2000 In this model, growth rates and historical unemployment feedback must be stabilized.
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