The World System is in Growth-and-Collapse Mode. Realistic policy measures (aside from reducing growth rates) do not seem available (see the graphic below).
The World System, typically used by the IPCC to model Global Climate Change, means one macro-system explaining environmental and economic trends of the World. The World-System (notice the hyphen), a term used by World-Systems Theory, refers to a "World of Systems" in which nation states and regions form hierarchical Geopolitical relationships.**
Here are some postings I have done from the perspective of both the World System and the World-System:
- Is the Green Transition Over? Yes, unless you cherry-pick examples.
- Global Temperature Projections Using the World System model, Global Temperature will peak below +1.5 degrees Centigrade. Using the Kaya Model, it will not (goodbye Polar Ice Caps).
- A More Conservative Peak Oil Forecast World Oil production, and the resulting CO2 emissions, might not collapse in 2040.
- Peak Oil and Global Warming Peak Oil Production, at some time in the Future, seems reasonable but "when" is hard to predict.
- World Population Collapse Both the UN and my WL20 model predict that World Population will start to collapse after 2050. If that really happens, there will be ripple effects throughout the Kaya Identity!
- A New Axis of Evil Looks scary but they might be no better at running the World-System than the US.
- Geopolitical Linkages: Canada, Mexico and the US The Trump II Administration is tinkering with a World-System that they do not understand.
- US Attempts to Dominate India In the long-run, it would lead to the collapse of India.
- World System Collapse Theory Doomsday has not been cancelled.
- World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.
- Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts Dominance of the World System by Russia would lead to (1) unending exponential growth and (2) a Dystopian Nightmare.
- Six Futures for the World System The best Future for the World System involves no Hegemonic Leader.
- US CO2 Forecasts Emissions are declining in the US but the best way to reinforce the trend is to let gasoline prices increase, a political non-starter.
- Coal will make Reducing Energy Intensity Difficult Reducing the mining and burning of coal will be difficult and the Trump II Administration is trying to "Greenwash" the problem by rebranding it "Clean Coal," which it isn't.
- EU Gives Up on Climate Regulation! Really? Backtracking might simply be an admission that EU countries are reaching a steady state.
- US CO2 Emission Reduction Unlikely as a result of COP17 Steady-state emissions are more likely rather than reductions.
- World Impact Forecasts More on Impact Models, if you are interested. Impact models do not have feedback effects but they are easy to calculate by hand and maybe feedback effects are weak in the World-System.
- How to Balance the World System Wait for Growth-and-Collapse.
Some of the State Space Dynamic Components models (see the Boiler Plate) for the period 1950-2000+ are available as R-code and can be run here.
The World System is in Growth-and-Collapse mode (WL20 in the graphic above from the WL203 Model). A Steady State Economy can be created by reducing (to zero) some of the Historical Feedback Controllers (instructions are available in the WL20 Code)--not a realistic policy recommendation.
Notes
Harrington, G. (2022) Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse
** Of course, the World System could be one of the World-Systems. However, World-Systems Theory does not analyze the "World System" because there is no Political System controlling the World System. In the future, a Galactic Empire could form but, in Science Fiction, it is mostly conceptualized as a Fascist Dictatorship.
This video explains the rise and fall of the Galactic Empire:
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