TSA, Probability and Profiling

US airport security is enough of a mess to generate a great SNL parody (above and here). My question, as a statistician, is how many underwear and shoe bombs have been detected with enhanced screening procedures? If the answer is "zero" or can be written in scientific notation, a lot of innocent people are being subjected to unresonable search and seizures.

Asra Nomani, a Muslim reporter with the Daily Beast, has proposed (here) that we rethink profiling. From a statistical standpoint, profiling on every relevant observable factor increases the probability of identifying terrorists. On the other side of the debate (hosted by Intelligence Squared US, here) was Michael Chertoff, former director of Homeland Security. Chertoff argues that "...racial and religious profiling would be not only ineffective, but counterproductive from a security standpoint." My comment to Mr. Chertoff would be (1) "Prove It" and (2) who said "racial and religious profiling" was the only way to profile.