The Important Story for France is that the country is headed toward a Steady-State Economy. It will be mistakenly interpreted as Failure (by Wall Street). It isn't.
From the FRL20 Model: FR1 = (Overall Growth)
Oct 25, 2026 Social unrest further darkens France's economic outlook Against a backdrop of rising energy prices, declining purchasing power and increasing bond yields, the proposed 2027 budget relies on a growth forecast of 1%, now more fragile than ever.
Oct 24, 2026 Unrest Erupts Again in France, but This Time, With Less Property Damage After largely peaceful marches on Saturday, clashes broke out in the evening. But a large-scale police presence, 1,000 arrests and the rerouting of protest routes kept a lid on wholesale vandalism.
Oct 23, 2026 'A perfect storm appears to be brewing over the French economy' The impact of social movements on economic growth is well-documented. These movements come at a time when high interest rates and soaring energy prices are eroding purchasing power, writes Le Monde economic journalist Olivier Pinaud in his column.
Oct 22, 2026 Art Basel Paris to End Early Because of France Riots Organizers cut the fair short after days of brisk sales at V.I.P. previews, citing safety concerns amid weeks of demonstrations in France.
Oct 22, 2026 In the Wake of Riots, the French Authorities Ban Some Protests President Emmanuel Macron said the move was necessary “so that calm prevails.”
Oct 22, 2026 Looted Goods From French Stores Flood Resale Sites After Riots Officials in France are pressing online platforms like eBay and Vinted to remove items that were stolen during public disturbances over the weekend.
Oct 22, 2026 The Only Thing We Can All Agree On Is That the World Is on Fire
How is it that Marine Le Pen is probably the odds-on favorite to be the next president of France?
Oct 21, 2026 Student Protests Mushroom Across Europe, Exposing Bleak Views of the Future Since high school students began protesting in France in September, they’ve been joined by young demonstrators in at least seven other European countries.
Oct 21, 2026 A Debt-Fueled “Doom Loop” Some democracies seem caught in a trap: Spend more and risk market panic, or cut benefits and empower the far right. When government debt gets out of hand, it’s a problem. In the run-up to the French Revolution, the French monarchy was heavily indebted and losing the ability to borrow from international bankers. Then the price of bread spiked, and the rest, as they say, is history.
Oct 20, 2026 France Comes Unglued, Again The French Model: universal health care; low-cost day care; affordable universities; strong worker protections; sacrosanct social benefits; high taxes; large investments in green energy; a secular republic in a multicultural society; constrained defense budgets; modest economic growth but lots of joie de vivre. For a long time that model seemed almost plausible. Not anymore.
Oct 13, 2026 Macron Dreamed of Reviving France, but His Term Is Ending in Crisis Nearly a decade after his first election as president, Emmanuel Macron is presiding over a tense country sliding toward the fiscal brink.
Oct 10, 2026 France's debt crisis and high school protests draw global attention French high school student protests have drawn major media coverage and political reactions in the US, Italy, Belgium and the UK. Only a few countries, such as Germany, wracked by its own domestic political debates, have treated the situation with restraint.
Oct 9, 2026 France’s Long, Fervent History of Protest Student demonstrations in recent weeks re-lit a centuries-old torch of civil resistance. How do they compare to previous movements in France?
Oct 9, 2026 Why is France in Crisis Debt, PolyCrisis and a resurgent Left Wing.
Oct 6, 2026 Understanding France's Polycrisis An autumn of discontent has gripped the country ahead of its presidential election
Oct 1, 2026 France's debt and economy are clearly taking on Italian characteristics What threatens France is not so much the risk of bankruptcy as the prospect of a slow decline similar to Italy's trajectory since the 1980s, writes Le Monde journalist Eric Albert in his column.
Sept. 9, 2025 The French government has collapsed again "less than 24 hours after its formation" (here). It seems like a good time to look back at what I have found about the French Economy:
- Debt Crisis in France There are Geopolitical Options. Only Business-as-Usual is a problem.
- Forecasting the Great Depression in France France was changed by WWI and reacted very conservatively to the Great Depression, making forecasting difficult.
- How is the French Labor Market Controlled? The role of World Markets for Agriculture and Oil.
- Has Austerity Helped or Hurt the French Economy? It's complicated but leads to a lot of Protest.
- Breaking Cycles of Austerity in France Find some way other than Austerity to control the Economy.
- La French TECH Cycles unlike Schumpeter's Creative Destruction cycles are stable.
- French Debt, Collapse of the Government and COVID-19 The lingering effects of the COVID shock are still with us and the French government is still preoccupied with Random Walk components rather than controlling the overall Economy.
- Six Futures for France A Steady State Economy or Growth-and-Collapse will not be accepted without Protest.
- World System: Steady State or Collapse The World System itself may be moving toward a Steady State Economy.
- How Does the Economy of France Work? The main controllers of the French Economy are not Austerity and Neoliberalism but rather the Environment and Unemployment.
- France in the Long Sixteenth Century Geopolitical Linkages between France and England have always been important historically.
- France (1450-1540) The Balance of Power System (Spain, France and England) began failing during this period.
- The French Revolution A Bourgeoise Revolution driven by the Urbanization Controller.
There is certainly a lot more to learn about the French economy. The important conclusion, at this point in my research, is that France might be heading toward a Steady State Economy which will lead to a period of World-System Chaos before government's learn to deal with the end of growth or Environmental Collapse or are able to discover new growth technologies through Schumpeter's Creative Destruction.
You can run the FRL20 Model written in R-Code on my Google Site (here). The French Economy is stable and headed toward a Steady-State Economy around 2030.
Notes
Wikipedia Links
- Economy of France a highly developed social market economy with strong state participation in strategic sectors. It is the world's seventh-largest economy by nominal GDP and the ninth-largest economy by PPP, constituting around 3% of world GDP.
- Politics of France a semi-presidential system determined by the Constitution of the Fifth Republic. The nation declares itself to be an "indivisible, secular, democratic, and social Republic". The constitution provides for a separation of powers and proclaims France's "attachment to the Rights of Man and the principles of National Sovereignty as defined by the Declaration of 1789".
- History of France he first written records for the history of France appeared in the Iron Age. What is now France made up the bulk of the region known to the Romans as Gaul.
- 2000 in France The year 2000 is in particular remembered in France by a media campaign on the conditions of detention of prisoners. A parliamentary board of inquiry was created. The conclusions of the report were that French prisons were both unhealthy and over-populated. The sanitary arrangements were considered to be scandalous. The government of Lionel Jospin launched a program to renovate and build new prisons.
- Geography of France a terrain that is mostly flat plains or gently rolling hills in the north and the west and mountainous in the south (including the Massif Central and the Pyrenees) and the east (the country's highest points being in the Alps). Metropolitan France has a total size of 551,695 km2 (213,011 mi2) (Europe only). It is the third-largest country in Europe by area (after Russia and Ukraine) and the largest in Western Europe.
- Race in France subject of deep controversy among French people, as the potential existence of racial categorization in France is presently considered a taboo topic. Often considered against the French universalist tradition, discussions of race are considered by some to be part of a trend of Americanization in France. While discrimination on the basis of race is prohibited by the French constitution, and current law prohibits the collection of racial or ethnic data, there is still discussion as to how race operates in France as well as a wealth of scholarly work concerning race throughout France’s history.
- Demographics of France As of 1 January 2026, in Metropolitan France 66,792,845 people lived, while 2,289,151 lived in overseas France, for a total of 69,081,996 inhabitants in the French Republic. In the 2010s and until 2017, the population of France grew by 1 million people every three years – an average annual increase of 340,000 people, or +0.6%.
- Civil Unrest in France This is a list of incidents of civil disorder that have occurred France since the 13th century, including riots, strikes, violent labor disputes, minor insurrections, and other forms of civil unrest. According to one dataset, there were 8,516 rebellions in France over the period 1661–1789.
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