Blog Roll: European Union

 

The European Union is forecast to reach a Steady State around 2050 (see below). The News and Blog Roll below should be read in light of the impending Steady State Economy which might not be perceived by all commentators and politicians as desirable.

 

Apr 9, 2026 NATO: Another Casualty of the Iran War?

LeMonde reported, at the end of 2025, that Europe had become the largest supplier of arms to Ukraine, although the armaments were largely purchased from the US. And, in 2026 the EU and South America agreed to form a Free-Trade Zone with 700 million people. EU policy now seems to be a reaction to Geopolitical actions (and inactions) by the Trump II Administrations. From the graphic above (from ChatGPT), Security is not the only problem facing the EU.

I have a number of posts on the EU, but there is much more to analyze in the future:

• Was the EU economy Wrecked by Austerity? Around the turn of the 21st Century, the EU tried to break away from a stable attractor path for growth. They failed. Poor performance of the EU is simply a return to more moderate, sustainable growth.
• Is the EU Heading for a Steady State Economy? My forecasting models predict that a steady state provides the most likely future attractor path. Google AI doesn't think so.
• Was it a mistake for Britain to enter the EU? The typical question asked right now is whether Britain should have exited the EU (Brexit). However, the period after the Maastricht Treaty (1992) that founded the EU was a period of unsustainable growth that eventually returned Britain to the attractor path around 2010. A decade of "poor" growth before Brexit in 2020 was simply a return to the attractor growth path, not failure.
• Is Another EU Recession Likely? Yes, if growth exceeds the attractor path.
• Has the EU Given up on Climate Change? Evidently, the EU decided in 2020 to give up "fixed climate targets". However, CO2 emissions are forecast to decline well after 2040.
• Future Geopolitical Alignment Forecasts for the EU also suggest approach of the Steady State. Some geopolitical alignments (with the US and the World System) predict collapse of the EU. The best forecast, although it is not for unlimited exponential growth, is for  Business-as-Usual (BAU).
• How does the EUL20 BAU Steady-State Economy Model work? Not in ways that are envisioned by Modern Economic Theory but that are easily explained by Systems Theory.
• World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.

The graphic above shows the State Variables for the EUL_20 Model. Three State Variables (EU1, EU2 and EU3) explain 99.6% of the variation in the underlying indicators (see the EUL20 Measurement Model below). EU1 is (Overall Growth) forecast to reach a steady state around 2050. EU2 is the Historical Emissions Controller which will continue to decline. EU3 is the Unemployment Controller which, after cycles in the late 20th Century, is forecast to be at equilibrium in the future.

Notes

Harrington, G. (2022) Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse

You can run the EU_L20 Model (here) along with a number of other models for EU Countries. Explanations for data sources and how the models were constructed can be found in the Boiler Plate.

 

Wikipedia

• Post-Growth an umbrella term that refers to a broad family of economic, ecological, and political perspectives responding to the limits-to-growth dilemma—the recognition that infinite economic growth is biophysically unsustainable on a finite planet.
• Degrowth an academic and social movement aimed at the planned and democratic reduction of production and consumption as a solution to social-ecological crises.
• European Union (EU) a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe.
• Brexit a portmanteau of "Britain" and "Exit") was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU)
• Maastricht Treaty (1992) the foundation treaty of the European Union (EU).
• Steady State Economy an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time.
• Economy of the European Union
• History of the European Union
• Politics of the European Union
• Council of the European Union 
• Institutions of the European Union
• Tipping Point thresholds that, when exceeded, can lead to large changes in the state of the system

The biggest Security problem facing the EU is Russian Expansionism. For more background, see my Blog Roll: Russia. The Russian Economy is highly cyclical and might well collapse (again) in the next few decades. However, integration of Ukraine in the EU will remain a problem as long as Russian Expansionism continues (see my Blog Roll: Ukraine).

Will the UK decide to return to the EU? See whether my Blog Roll: UK will help you make a forecast.

Do you think the EU-LA Free Trade Zone will help either the EU or Latin America? See my Blog Roll: Latin America.

EU_L20 Measurement Model

Three components in the EU_L20 state space explain 99.6% of the variation in the indicator variables: EU1 = (Overall Growth), EU2 = (CO2 - LU) an Environmental-Unemployment Controller and EU3 = (LU - Q) an (Unemployment - GDP) controller.

EU_L20 BAU System Matrix

The EU_L20 System Matrix is stable, meaning that the system will eventually reach a steady state.