Venezuela is currently in the News because the US appears to be planning an invasion of the country. Wikipedia notes (here) that "With the turn of the 21st century, the Venezuelan economy has been in a state of total collapse since 2013."
Here are some background forecasts from my VEL20 model and a model of the Latin American Region:
- Eight Growth forecasts for Venezuela Maybe not surprisingly, the best growth options involve no Geopolitical Alignments for the country. Alignment with the US is worse than a Random Walk.
- Inflation in Venezuela The best option to control inflation, maybe in this case surprisingly, is to increase Globalization.
- Venezuela Growth Forecast Without external interference (for example, a US invasion), the Venezuelan economy is predicted to reach a steady state after 2100.
- Latin American Futures Latin American has a somewhat different future from Venezuela, but Geopolitical Alignment with the Latin American region is another policy option for Venezuela.
- How will US Military Action affect the Economy of Venezuela? Not well!
Activities within Latin American and within the MAGA movement suggest that events in Venezuela and in the US are changing quickly and cannot be easily predicted. Hopefully, historical models and forecasts will make events that happen in the future somewhat more understandable.
You can experiment yourself with the VE20 model using an R-code simulation (here). To understand how the statistical models are created and estimated, see the Boiler Plate.
Exercise: How will the negative shock of invasion affect the state of the country (see the last line of code in the VE20 model)?
Background
- Proposed Invasion of Venezuela
- US 2025 National Security Strategy particularly the revival of the Monroe Doctrine
- Crisis in Venezuela
- Economy of Venezuela
- Economic History of Venezuela
- Google AI
No comments:
Post a Comment