Technology Long Waves

  

The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I can present some examples.

• The Iranian Economy prior to 1979 and associated Tech Bubble.

Back-of-the-envelope Calculations: Global Warming

In the introductory chapter of  The Demon Haunted World: Science as a candle in the Dark Carl Sagan writes:

It was from [G. P.] Kuiper that I first got a feeling for what is called a back-of--the-envelope calculation: A possible explanation to a problem occurs to you, you pull out an old envelope, appeal to your knowledge of fundamental physics, scribble a few approximate equations on the envelope, substitute in likely numerical values, and see if your answer comes anywhere near explaining your problem. If not, you look for a different explanation, It cut through nonsense like a knife through butter.

Given the controversies that are currently swirling around Climate change (the President of the United States has called it a "hoax"), it would be useful for the non-scientists to have a back-of-the-envelope calculation to "cut through nonsense". There is a simple equation, called the Kaya Identity that would be very useful to understand.

I first became aware of the Kaya Identity on one of the first IPCC reports. The Kaya Identity proves a back-of-the-envelope way to calculate global temperature increase, T, from population growth. The current IPPC report, AR15, doesn't mention it in the introduction but it should. AR15 claims that it is already too late to limit anthropogenic (human caused) climate change. It is  dire warning but how can the non-scientists check the assertion. Let's work through he Kaya identity slowly and see what the calculations tell us.

The first step in the causal chain is the effect of population growth, N,  on economic production, Q. The Kaya equation is Q = qN where q is output per capita. In the Kaya framework, q is called an intensive variable while N and Q are extensive variables.

Blog Roll: The World System (1950-2000+)

 

The World System is in Growth-and-Collapse Mode. Realistic policy measures (aside from reducing growth rates) do not seem available (see the graphic below). 

Sep 17, 2026 Global Economy Is Running Out of Wiggle Room Many countries blunted the most painful effects of the energy shock from the war in Iran. But prices remain elevated and risks are multiplying.

The World System, typically used by the IPCC to model Global Climate Change, means one macro-system explaining environmental and economic trends of the World. The World-System (notice the hyphen), a term used by World-Systems Theory, refers to a "World of Systems" in which nation states and regions form hierarchical Geopolitical relationships.**

Here are some postings I have done from the perspective of both the World System and the World-System:

• Is the Green Transition Over?  Yes, unless you cherry-pick examples.
• Global Temperature Projections Using the World System model, Global Temperature will peak below +1.5 degrees Centigrade. Using the Kaya Model, it will not (goodbye Polar Ice Caps).
• A More Conservative Peak Oil Forecast World Oil production, and the resulting CO2 emissions, might not collapse in 2040.
• Peak Oil and Global Warming Peak Oil Production, at some time in the Future, seems reasonable but "when" is hard to predict.
• World Population Collapse Both the UN and my WL20 model predict that World Population will start to collapse after 2050. If that really happens, there will be ripple effects throughout the Kaya Identity!
• A New Axis of Evil Looks scary but they might be no better at running the World-System than the US.
• Geopolitical Linkages: Canada, Mexico and the US The Trump II Administration is tinkering with a World-System that they do not understand.
• US Attempts to Dominate India In the long-run, it would lead to the collapse of India.
• World System Collapse Theory Doomsday has not been cancelled.
• World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.
• Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts Dominance of the World System by Russia would lead to (1) unending exponential growth and (2) a Dystopian Nightmare.
• Six Futures for the World System The best Future for the World System involves no Hegemonic Leader.
• US CO2 Forecasts Emissions are declining in the US but the best way to reinforce the trend is to let gasoline prices increase, a political non-starter.
• Coal will make Reducing Energy Intensity Difficult Reducing the mining and burning of coal will be difficult and the Trump II Administration is trying to "Greenwash" the problem by rebranding it "Clean Coal," which it isn't.
• EU Gives Up on Climate Regulation! Really? Backtracking might simply be an admission that EU countries are reaching a steady state.
• US CO2 Emission Reduction Unlikely as a result of COP17 Steady-state emissions are more likely rather than reductions.
• World Impact Forecasts More on Impact Models, if you are interested. Impact models do not have feedback effects but they are easy to calculate by hand and maybe feedback effects are weak in the World-System.
• How to Balance the World System Wait for Growth-and-Collapse.

Some of the State Space Dynamic Components models (see the Boiler Plate) for the period 1950-2000+ are available as R-code and can be run here.

The World System is in Growth-and-Collapse mode (WL20 in the graphic above from the WL203 Model). A Steady State Economy can be created by reducing (to zero) some of the Historical Feedback Controllers (instructions are available in the WL20 Code)--not a realistic policy recommendation. 

Notes

Harrington, G. (2022) Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse

** Of course, the World System could be one of the World-Systems. However, World-Systems Theory does not analyze the "World System" because there is no Political System controlling the World System. In the future, a Galactic Empire could form but, in Science Fiction, it is mostly conceptualized as a Fascist Dictatorship.

This video explains the rise and fall of the Galactic Empire:

Blog Roll: Argentina

Sep 29, 2026 In Paris, Argentinian President Javier Milei seeks investors to support his country's struggling economy Javier Milei, in the French capital for the Argentina Week forum, hopes to attract new foreign investment to stave off recession in his country, with just over a year to go before the next presidential election.

 Wikipedia notes (here) that:

Argentina's economy has swung from one of the world's richest in the early 20th century to repeated cycles of boom, bust, and hyperinflation, driven by commodity dependence, political instability, and policy shifts.

The newest shock to the economy has come from president Javier Milei's  Economic Austerity policies which have, evidently, failed and required a $20 Bailout from the Trump II Administration. 

I have a systems model (ARL20) of the Argentine Economy which can be used to investigate (1) the Late 20th and early 21st century Economic History of Argentina and (2) alternative Geopolitical Futures for Argentina and the resulting economic impacts.

• Seven Futures for Argentina Alignment with the US produces Growth-and-Collapse.
• The Bubbly Economy of Argentina Not a pretty picture.
• Latin American Futures Emphasis on Business-as-usual and Technological change provide the most likely futures.

You can experiment yourself with the ARL20 BAU model here.

Blog Roll: Europe

 

The European Union is forecast to reach a Steady State around 2050 (see below). The News and Blog Roll below should be read in light of the impending Steady State Economy which might not be perceived by all protestors, commentators and politicians as desirable.

 

Oct 21, 2026 Student Protests Mushroom Across Europe, Exposing Bleak Views of the Future Since high school students began protesting in France in September, they’ve been joined by young demonstrators in at least seven other European countries.

Aug 12, 2026 Europe Faces Another Heat Wave Soaring temperatures, widespread wildfires and dried-up rivers are transforming tourism across the continent. Here’s how travelers are responding.

Apr 15, 2026 Orbán is out. Who’s the EU’s next disruptor-in-chief?

Apr 9, 2026 NATO: Another Casualty of the Iran War?

LeMonde reported, at the end of 2025, that Europe had become the largest supplier of arms to Ukraine, although the armaments were largely purchased from the US. And, in 2026 the EU and South America agreed to form a Free-Trade Zone with 700 million people. EU policy now seems to be a reaction to Geopolitical actions (and inactions) by the Trump II Administrations. From the graphic above (from ChatGPT), Security is not the only problem facing the EU.

I have a number of posts on the EU, but there is much more to analyze in the future:

• Was the EU economy Wrecked by Austerity? Around the turn of the 21st Century, the EU tried to break away from a stable attractor path for growth. They failed. Poor performance of the EU is simply a return to more moderate, sustainable growth.
• Is the EU Heading for a Steady State Economy? My forecasting models predict that a steady state provides the most likely future attractor path. Google AI doesn't think so.
• Was it a mistake for Britain to enter the EU? The typical question asked right now is whether Britain should have exited the EU (Brexit). However, the period after the Maastricht Treaty (1992) that founded the EU was a period of unsustainable growth that eventually returned Britain to the attractor path around 2010. A decade of "poor" growth before Brexit in 2020 was simply a return to the attractor growth path, not failure.
• Is Another EU Recession Likely? Yes, if growth exceeds the attractor path.
• Has the EU Given up on Climate Change? Evidently, the EU decided in 2020 to give up "fixed climate targets". However, CO2 emissions are forecast to decline well after 2040.
• Future Geopolitical Alignment Forecasts for the EU also suggest approach of the Steady State. Some geopolitical alignments (with the US and the World System) predict collapse of the EU. The best forecast, although it is not for unlimited exponential growth, is for  Business-as-Usual (BAU).
• How does the EUL20 BAU Steady-State Economy Model work? Not in ways that are envisioned by Modern Economic Theory but that are easily explained by Systems Theory.
• World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.

The graphic above shows the State Variables for the EUL_20 Model. Three State Variables (EU1, EU2 and EU3) explain 99.6% of the variation in the underlying indicators (see the EUL20 Measurement Model below). EU1 is (Overall Growth) forecast to reach a steady state around 2050. EU2 is the Historical Emissions Controller which will continue to decline. EU3 is the Unemployment Controller which, after cycles in the late 20th Century, is forecast to be at equilibrium in the future.

Notes

Harrington, G. (2022) Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse

You can run the EU_L20 Model (here) along with a number of other models for EU Countries. Explanations for data sources and how the models were constructed can be found in the Boiler Plate.

ChatGPT

More Video 

 

Wikipedia

• Post-Growth an umbrella term that refers to a broad family of economic, ecological, and political perspectives responding to the limits-to-growth dilemma—the recognition that infinite economic growth is biophysically unsustainable on a finite planet.
• Degrowth an academic and social movement aimed at the planned and democratic reduction of production and consumption as a solution to social-ecological crises.
• European Union (EU) a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe.
• Brexit a portmanteau of "Britain" and "Exit") was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU)
• Maastricht Treaty (1992) the foundation treaty of the European Union (EU).
• Steady State Economy an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time.
• Economy of the European Union The European Union's economy combines the national economies of the supranational organization's member states. It makes up the majority of the European economy as the second largest economy in the world in nominal terms, after the United States.
• History of the European Union The European Union is a geo-political entity, created in 1993, covering a large portion of the European continent. It is founded upon numerous treaties and has undergone expansions and secessions that have taken it from six member states to 27, a majority of the states in Europe.
• Politics of the European Union The political structure of the European Union (EU) is similar to a confederation, where many policy areas are federalized into common institutions capable of making law; the competences to control foreign policy, defence policy, or the majority of direct taxation policies are mostly reserved for the twenty-seven state governments (the Union does limit the level of variation allowed for VAT). These areas are primarily under the control of the EU's member states although a certain amount of structured co-operation and coordination takes place in these areas. 
• Council of the European Union the third of the seven institutions of the European Union (EU) as listed in the Treaty on European Union. It is one of two legislative bodies and together with the European Parliament serves to amend and approve, or veto, the proposals of the European Commission, which holds the right of initiative.
• Institutions of the European Union the seven principal decision-making bodies of the European Union and Euratom governed under the Treaties of the European Union and European Union law. They are, as listed in Article 13 of the Treaty on the European Union.
• Tipping Point thresholds that, when exceeded, can lead to large changes in the state of the system

The biggest Security problem facing the EU is Russian Expansionism. For more background, see my Blog Roll: Russia. The Russian Economy is highly cyclical and might well collapse (again) in the next few decades. However, integration of Ukraine in the EU will remain a problem as long as Russian Expansionism continues (see my Blog Roll: Ukraine).

Will the UK decide to return to the EU? See whether my Blog Roll: UK will help you make a forecast.

Do you think the EU-LA Free Trade Zone will help either the EU or Latin America? See my Blog Roll: Latin America.

EU_L20 Measurement Model

Three components in the EU_L20 state space explain 99.6% of the variation in the indicator variables: EU1 = (Overall Growth), EU2 = (CO2 - LU) an Environmental-Unemployment Controller and EU3 = (LU - Q) an (Unemployment - GDP) controller.

EU_L20 BAU System Matrix

The EU_L20 System Matrix is stable, meaning that the system will eventually reach a steady state.

Google AI

Blog Roll: Venezuela

April 18, 2026  Maduro Is Gone, and the Purge Has Begun

April 10, 2026 Can Venezuela Recover Maybe? Treacherous!

Feb 10, 2026. Crisis in Venezuela: An Uncertain Future (full documentary) | FRONTLINE (PBS) YouTube Video

Jan 3, 2026. TRUMP INVADES VENEZUELA The New York Times is providing live updates here. My models (e.g., the VEL20 model, Latin American Regional Models and links below) suggest that the invasion and the aftermath (Trump claims the US will run the country) will not end well and are not in the best interests of Venezuela.

October 2025. Venezuela is currently in the News because the US appears to be planning an invasion of the country. Wikipedia notes (here) that "With the turn of the 21st century, the Venezuelan economy has been in a state of total collapse since 2013."

Here are some background forecasts from my VEL20 model and a model of the Latin American Region: 

• Eight Growth forecasts for Venezuela Maybe not surprisingly, the best growth options involve no Geopolitical Alignments for the country. Alignment with the US is worse than a Random Walk.
• Inflation in Venezuela The best option to control inflation, maybe in this case surprisingly, is to increase Globalization.
• Predicting and Controlling Hyperinflation in Venezuela It is not easy but has to be gotten under control by current and future administrations in Venezuela.
• Venezuela Growth Forecast Without external interference (for example, a US invasion), the Venezuelan economy is predicted to reach a steady state after 2100.
• Latin American Futures Latin American has a somewhat different future from Venezuela, but Geopolitical Alignment with the Latin American region is another policy option for Venezuela.
• How will US Military Action affect the Economy of Venezuela? Not well!

Activities within Latin American and within the MAGA movement suggest that events in Venezuela and in the US are changing quickly and cannot be easily predicted. Hopefully, historical models and forecasts will make events that happen in the future somewhat more understandable.

You can experiment yourself with the VE20 model using an R-code simulation (here). To understand how the statistical models are created and estimated, see the Boiler Plate. 

Exercise: How will the negative shock of invasion affect the state of the country (see the last line of code in the VE20 model)?

 Background

• 2026 US Invasion of Venezuela On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
• Proposed Invasion of Venezuela The possibility of a United States-led invasion of Venezuela has been frequently discussed during the presidencies of Donald Trump.
• Economy of Venezuela a developing socialist economy strongly dependent on its natural resources. Its economic growth is closely linked to petroleum, as the country holds the largest crude oil supply in the world. Venezuela was historically among the wealthiest economies in South America, particularly from the 1950s to 1980s.
• Hyperinflation in Venezuela the currency instability in Venezuela that began in 2016 during the country's ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis. Venezuela began experiencing continuous and uninterrupted inflation in 1983, with double-digit annual inflation rates.
• Economic History of Venezuela a country located on the northern coast of South America. It is known for its large proven oil reserves. Venezuela was historically among the wealthiest economies in South America, particularly from the 1950s to 1980s.
• Politics of Venezuela conducted under what is nominally a federal presidential republic, but is in practice an authoritarian dictatorial government.
• How it All Went Wrong in Venezuela Aljazeera Documentary
• 2026 US Invasion of Venezuela On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The US operation, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, began around 2 a.m. local time, when explosions were observed.
• Steady State Economy an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time.
• Google AI

US Planned Invasion

US Extraction of Maduro