Rhapsody in Blue -- Jodie DeSalvo

A high point for us this year was on Friday, July 11, 2014 when we heard Jodie DeSalvo play Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue at the Birch Creek Performance Center in Egg Harbor, WI. In addition to wearing a rhapsodic "Blue" evening dress for the occasion, Ms. DeSalvo attack the piece with an athletic and emotional performance not to be forgotten (we were sitting stage-left, behind Ms. DeSalvo in the wings--an unusual and interesting vantage point for the performance).

What made me recall the performance was the Diane Rehm show this morning on Public Radio  which featured an interview with jazz musician Herbie Hancock. He has a new biography out titled Possibilities. In the biography, Hancock recounts having been asked to play Rhapsody in Blue with the L. A. Philharmonic. Since the Rhapsody is a classical piece with a jazz foundation, Hancock was a natural choice (paired with the young classical pianist Lang Lang, you can see their performance on YouTube here). Hancock's response to being asked was "Are you joking...I haven't played classical music since I was 20!"

There are lots of other great details about Herbie Hancock's life in the biography and I've included Chapter One below. The excerpt echoed a quote from Miles Davis (1926-1991) which sums up what it means to play and listen to Jazz: "If you hit a wrong note, it's the next note you play that determines if it's good or bad."

To all my readers, have a great New Year's celebration tonight and may your 2015 have as many highlights as my 2014 did!

Possibilities by Herbie Hancock

Scott Walker Holiday Gift Gaffe

MADISON, WI. This holiday season, Governor Scott Walker is spreading holiday cheer by sending out Usinger's Famous Sausage boxes, a Germanic Wisconsin tradition. A little surprising was the gift boxes sent to Wisconsin Public Sector Unions (two boxes to the Police and Fire Unions), given that the governor has done everything he can to destroy the unions. The boxes sent to unions had the following personal message:

Ich sende meinen weiner, sie wieder zu geben. Homosexuell Saisongrüße.

Now, Governor Walker has made a number of public gaffes before (here) and this isn't a real big one. Walker nor anyone on his staff understand any German and he may have been pranked again by the Buffalo Beast. 

In a news conference, Walker commented "Well, obviously someone was asleep on my staff. Maybe they should have caught the 'Gay Season Greetings' but no one is going to jail for this. Have a Happy Holiday, everyone."

Hey, Apple! Another Moronic Upgrade! Really?

I have this old iPad. It has stopped playing very well with newer apps and does crazy things when the apps start interfering with each other. When this happens, the Apple Store Genius suggested I just restore the factory settings, try to move on slowly by reinstalling apps and try to figure out which app it doesn't like. Oh, great. I have nothing better to do than figure that out (isn't that Apple's Job since they control all the apps?), so the iPod sits on my desk largely unused.

Then, I read an article in Slate (here) suggesting that a new app (Duet Display), about to be released, could be used to turn your iPad into a second monitor. Since I need more monitor real estate, that sounded like a good use for the old iPad. So, I decided to clean it up and get it ready for Duet Display by restoring the factory settings, upgrading the operating system and wiping out all the old apps and data.

After the iPad was restored (I did this from my Mac) and after I swiped the "Get Started" screen, I was greeting with the window above which is either in Danish or Swedish (Google translate couldn't make up its mind). So, OK, I was able to figure out how to configure my Wi Fi but after that nothing made sense and Google translate wasn't helping. 

My next step was to go searching on the Internet for "How to change the iPad Language setting" and this took a bit of time and a few dead ends, but eventually I found instructions (here). The instructions say it's for iOS 6 or earlier (I'm at iOS 8) but the fix worked. Go to Settings > General >  and locate the fifth group of settings, which contains three options (that you can't read) and tap the last option. This takes you to a screen that allows you to select a language you can read. Then you have to go through the entire "Get Started" process again but at least this time you understand what you are doing. All this jerking around probably took me two hours.

This is really crazy! Apple desperately needs someone like Steve Jobs to throw the offending tablet on the floor, fire the software engineers that wrote the Restore program (they were probably Danish or Swedish) and scream at people till everyone wakes up. 

The programming solution is very simple. Ask what language you prefer before going through the "Getting Started" process. Any of my students could program this for you, like that last moronic iPhone upgrade (here).

Hey, Apple! Read this: Dumm Updates sind verboten!

The Future's Not Ours To See

On this horrible mid-term election night in the US, for those who are disheartened, some advice from Doris Day:

Que Sera Sera
Whatever will be will be
The future's not ours to see
Que Sera Sera
What will be will be...

Sing it with me...

Do Animals Understand Teasing?

Wikipedia (here) says that "Some animals, such as dogs and cats, may recognize ... [teasing] ... both as play or harassment." Watch the video above and form your own conclusions.

A Simple Model of Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria Transmission

PBS Frontline recently ran  a documentary titled Can E. Coli in supermarket Meat Cause UTIs? One of the most interesting interviews was with Dr. Lance B. Price. In the video above he explains the issue surrounding antibiotic resistant bacteria transmission from animal to human populations (the Frontline video is also available here).

Dr. Price has been tracking Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) in the Flagstaff area looking at a direct pathway from eating meat. Joan Casey and Brian Schwartz (also interviewed in the documentary)  have mapped both the occurrence of MRSA (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus) infections and the location of large animal breeding operations in central Pennsylvania. Increases in antibiotic resistant UTIs at Flagstaff hospitals and increase in MRSA infections in Pennsylvania prompted both investigations.

Antibiotic resistance is an evolutionary process. Exposure to antibiotics selects for organisms that are resistant to the antibiotic since those are the ones that survive. In large populations of pathogens, the antibiotic resistance bacteria can reproduce quickly.

Antibiotic resistance from antibiotic use in livestock spreads in a similar fashion. However, antibiotics are used not only to control diseases in animal populations on industrial farms but also to increase profits. Animals routinely fed antibiotics put on more weight before slaughter. More meat per animal results in higher profits.

The idea that antibiotic resistance in animal populations could affect human populations has been resisted by the livestock industry. The arguments are similar to the arguments made by the tobacco industry: there is no proof that any disease contracted by any human can be linked to something specifically done by the industry. The argument has forced scientists to make genetic links from a particular bacteria from a particular farm to a particular person and their UTI. Price is doing the genetic work but the results are preliminary. He has tested 1,200 samples from the Flagstaff area and was able to link more than 100 of them to supermarket meats, which he also sampled.

Price will certainly succeed and establish the direct causal link from eating meat to antibiotic resistant UTIs. My question is whether the Casey and Schwartz study proves the causal link? Science does not always progress by irrefutable data collection. Science is a competition among models. Data is generated in support of a particular model. Over time the weight of the evidence and the ability of the model to explain reality supports one model more than others. For example:

“You don’t have a normally healthy 30-year-old woman come in, who’s never been in a hospital, with a resistant urinary tract infection that’s moved to her blood,” Elizabeth DuPreez, an infectious disease pharmacist who helped treat cases in Flagstaff, Ariz., explained FRONTLINE. “Where did she get that organism from?”

or

"People are getting MRSA who are not like the ones that used to get it," Brian Schwartz explained. "They are not old, sick people. These are young, healthy people."

A scientist would first search for a model that explained these unusual events. One model is that the infection came from eating meat. The livestock industry's model is another competitor.

The industry argument seems to be that UTIs, even rare antibiotic resistance UTIs, and MRSA infections are random occurrences. Certainly, randomness plays a role in who gets an infection, but the random model is not very satisfactory.

When Joan Casey, working in Pennsylvania, went searching for a model to explain MRSA infections, she had something more explanatory in mind. In this model (presented above) manure with antibiotic resistance organisms is spread on fields around factory farms. Dry conditions spread the organisms through the air to be breathed by humans. Wet conditions leach the organisms into the ground water which are also consumed by humans. To test this model, Casey mapped the factory farm operations in central Pennsylvania with the occurrences of antibiotic resistant MRSA infections. The correlations were very strong. But, is correlation causation?

Typically, correlation is not assumed to be causation. Obesity and CO2 emissions have both increased after 1950 but this does not mean that there is a causal link. What is missing is a causal model. Observed historical correlations may be just coincidental. The correlation between factory farm locations and antibiotic resistant MRSA infections may be just a coincidence. But, in the presence of a causal model with no serious competitors, the alternative "random" model is less reasonable.

Industry groups have used "correlation is not causation" to create doubts about scientific links, especially links that threaten their profits. The doubts are not "reasonable" without strong competitor models. That does not prevent industrial groups from making these types of arguments to sympathetic courts and policy makers. My guess is that even if there were a definitive causal link established between meat production and antibiotic resistant infections, people would rather eat meat than become vegetarians (it's really quite uncomfortable to be a vegetarian in advanced Western societies).

Really? It's Not The Biggest Wind Farm in the US?

If you are ever driving through the middle of Colorado, South East of Denver, it's worth a slight side trip on Highway 71 to a ridge line outside Limon, Colorado (the red dot in the lower right hand corner of the graphic above). There you will get a chance to drive through the Cedar Point Wind Farm. The first time I saw Cedar Point was last year driving from Taos, NM to North Platte, NE on Highway 71. When we crossed over Interstate 70 and drove out of Limon, there it was: the biggest wind farm I have ever seen.

The video above (taken on our drive down Hwy 71 to Taos today) doesn't really do justice to the scale of the Cedar Point Wind Farm but it does give you an idea of why the turbines are located here: it is a really windy spot!

The amazing thing about driving miles and miles through this wind farm is that Cedar Point is, by far, not the largest wind farm in the US (see the list here). Cedar point has 139 Turbines (the Vestas V90s) each with a 1.8 MW rating for a total installed capacity of 250.2 MW (information obtained from the developer, RES America here). The largest wind farm in the US is the Alta Wind Energy Center in California with 1548 MW of installed capacity!



The video above, from the History Channel, gives a better inside look at the Alta Wind Energy Center than I could ever provide. Just one quote: "Think about them as Wind Mills on steroids!"

The video doesn't cover how sites are chosen for wind farms. The geography of Cedar Point makes it pretty clear why the site was chosen (lengthy ridge line, rural agricultural area, always seems windy, etc.). However, the process of wind mapping in the US is quite interesting and often involves computer simulation of candidate sites (read more here).

Estimates of wind generation potential for the US (here) suggest that about 10,500 GW of onshore wind capacity could be produced which is nine times larger than the current total US energy consumption--that's an interesting fact to think about!

Gay Marriage Bans and Interracial Marriage Bans: are both arguments bogus?

In the debate above between Ted Olson and Tony Perkins, Mr. Olson (an Ellison Bay, WI neighbor of mine, Solicitor General during the Bush II administration, a voice of sanity in the GOP and a great potential candidate for US Attorney General), finally gets to make the point that the Right Wing ban on Gay Marriage is completely equivalent to the earlier Right Wing Ban on interracial marriage. Anti-miscengenation laws in the US were found illegal in 1967 by the US Supreme Court in Loving v. Virginia as an obvious matter of civil rights. Mr. Perkins makes all the same arguments about Gay Marriage that were made about interracial marriage. The arguments were bogus in the 1960s and are still bogus today.

Lady with Weasel

Ludovico Sforza, the Duke of Milan, was a serial philanderer and patron of Leonardo da Vinci. Ludovico's favorite mistress, Cecilia Gallerani, is painted above with Ludovico's heraldic animal, the weasel. From spectral analysis, it has been determined that Leonardo had to redo the painting many times to get the weasel to look as much like Ludovico as possible. It certainly must have been a great life to be a court painter.

The Final Years of White Dominance

Simplest way to explain all the cray stuff going in US polities right now.

White Sands: A Great Little Know Movie

Set in New Mexico, White Sands is a murder mystery not particularly well-liked by the critics and as a result not very well known. But the setting and the filming are gorgeous (if you like the US Southwest), and the film is full of great characters: M. Emmet Walsh as coroner Bert Gibson, Samuel L. Jackson as corrupt FBI Agent Greg Meeker, Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio as socialite Lane Bodine, Mickey Rourke as CIA Agent Gorman Lennox and Willem Dafoe as Torrance County, New Mexico Deputy Sheriff Ray Dolezal. Here's the full movie; enjoy the scenery and don't get hung up on the details!

The Successful Career: Start Out as a Fly, End Up As a Star

Jeff Goldblum has had a great career as an actor, comedian and Jazz musician (in 2014, Goldbum's group, the Mildred Snitzer Orchestra, did a run at the Carlyle Hotel in New York). His latest appearance was this great "Enhance Your Lighting" commercial from GE above. In the video, Goldblum plays a nauseating super star with a full mane of perfect hair, a perfect house with combined music room/hot tub, and the perfect reactions to his collection of toadys. It's a great send up of our star-struck culture and obsession with success.



In 1986, Golblum received the Saturn Award for Best Actor in The Fly. In the movie, he plays a brilliant scientists who conducts an experiment on human teleportation which goes wrong when a fly gets into his teleportation chamber.


In 1993, Goldbum received another Saturn Award for Best Supporting Actor when he played another scientist studying Chaos Theory (a Chaotician) in Jurrasic Park.

Power Outage? This is helpful!

The power is out. What should you do? Tucson Electric Power (TEP) suggests that you log on to https://www.tep.com/outage/. After you realize that your internet connection is also down because your modem is plugged into the electrical outlet that isn't working and you forget to get an expensive battery backup system for the modem, your next stop should be your smart phone, if you have one.

What It's Like to be a Vegetarian

In advanced Western societies, it has become increasingly difficult for people to understand what it feels like to be a vegetarian. Eating meat is the height of civilized accomplishment for societies at the top of the economic pyramid. Vegetarians just can't seem to appreciate one of the major accomplishments of sustained economic growth. Last night, I saw the film August: Osage County and I found the perfect scene (the "Fear Clip" above) to help people understand what it's like to be a vegetarian in an advanced society of meat eaters.

Let me first set the scene: The Weston family has just settled down for a family diner in rural Pawhuska, Oklahoma. The family patriarch, poet Beverly Weston (Same Shepard), has committed suicide and the diner is being held after the funeral. Daughter Barbara Weston (Julia Roberts) is seen sitting to the left of her daughter Jean (Abigail Breslin). Abigail is asked why she is a vegetarian by relative Charles Aiken (Chris Cooper). The scene shows 14-year-old Jean trying to defend herself against the derision and mockery of the entire family.

This is what it is like to be a vegetarian in the US. You are perpetually at a table surrounded by the meanest, nastiest family imaginable ("meanness" is a constant theme throughout this dark movie). No one at the table has ever read the China Study and would ever think to question the necessity of having meat at every meal of the day, every day of their lives (Barbara screams at her mother, played by Meril Streep, in another lunch scene to "Eat the fish, Bitch"). As she grows up, teenager Jean will certainly loose this battle; at least her family will make sure she doesn't succeed. For this evening's meal, she handled herself amazingly well.

Bimbo Bakery Animal Rights Award goes to Amanda Hall

HORSHAM, PA. For advancing the Cause of Caged Animals, Amanda Hall has received the 2014  Bimbo Bakery Animal Rights Award. Ms. Hall demonstrated extreme bravery by climbing a three foot fence and entering Wally the Giraffe's pen at the Vilas Zoo in Madison, Wisconsin. After Amanda frantically tried to find a way to set Wally free, the giraffe bent over, gave Amanda a lick and then kicked her in the face. Amanda received a $686 fine for "harassment of a zoo animal".

In an off-the-record portion of a interview granted to Capital Times (here), Ms. Hall said: "I don't get it. I've jumped over fences before at plenty of places like Wet T-Shirt Contests, Mud Wrestling and Mechanical Bull Riding and I've had guys kick me in the face before. Usually the guys get arrested but the cops just let Wally walk. Cops are like being so unfair. And now I've got stitches I can't cover with makeup. Bummer."

Afterward, Amanda went to Zoo Director Ronda Schwetz's office to ask if she could be entered in the  2015 Merbership T-shirt Contest but was denied. At that point, the Bimbo Bakery felt it was necessary to step in.

Monopoly Economics: When One Person Has All The Money, Game Over

Billionaire venture capitalist Nick Hanauer has made the news recently with his views about how inequality is bad for the economy. Here's a quote that got my attention.

"The thing about a real economy is that it actually is like the game of Monopoly in the sense that when one person has all the money, the game is over. And in a game of Monopoly, of course, that’s quite charming, but in a real economy it’s much more problematic".

You can read the entire interview here.

Is Time Travel Possible?

Evidently, time travel is possible if you eat enough Doritos. This commercial was shot by amateur film maker Raj Suri for $200 and took eight hours to complete (read more here). It won Dorito's "Crash the SuperBowl" contest and is very funny (I love the yellow lab with his face in the Doritos bag).

Time travel is a complex concept (see the issues here) and requires violations of causality to accept. My favorite "impossibility theorem" is called Presentism which argues that neither the future nor the past exists and therefore there are no "non-present" objects you might return to or go to in the future.

Hey, Apple! Fix the iPhone Upgrade Process!

There's a new upgrade for the iPhone operating system (iOS 7.1.2). I've been through a lot of these upgrades. Everyone is the same: brain dead. 

Here's the problem. My iPhone is full of music. Each upgrade requires more free space. Changing my "...media sync options to make more storage available" doesn't really do that so I have to delete songs manually. This is like asking me to perform my own root canal. Every song I pull off manually is painful, like pulling another tooth.

Here are some options. I'm going to write the options out in pseudo code. Any one of my students could program this for you, Apple. If you're interested in hiring them, I'll send you a list.

The first option: automatically delete songs that aren't played very much until you have enough free space (I know you keep information on how often a song has been played).

Sort songs by the number of times each song has been played;

Do Until (There is enough free space);

     Delete songs starting with least played.

Here's another option: automatically put deleted songs out into the cloud.

Sort songs by the number of times each song has been played;

Do Until (There is enough free space);

     Put the least played song out in the cloud;

     Keep the song in the playlist but mark it as out in the cloud;

     Delete the song on the iPhone.

Here's another option: store all the music in the cloud unless I ask to play it. I have many, many more songs that I have purchased from you on iTunes than I can possible put on my iPhone.

Download to the iPhone the list of all songs purchased from iTunes;

When I select a song to be played, download it to my iPhone;

If ((my iPhone is out of space) or (you need more space for an upgrade)) Do Until (There is enough free space);

     Delete songs starting with least played.

Well, I could go on. 

"Why are you putting this on your blog," you ask, "rather than sending it to Apple as a suggestion?"

Obviously, you have never tried to make suggestions to a large computer manufacturer or a software developer. Try notifying Google Maps (or worse yet, Apple Maps) that something is wrong: "We'll let you know when we've upgraded the map to reflect your correction." Right! That was three years ago.

Is it just me or does it seem that Apple System Programming is a bit uninspired these days?

Hey Joe! Where You Goin' with that Gun in your Hand?

A great song with an unusual history (here) and a special meaning for the US Right Wing (here). You can read the complete lyrics here.

Speed Up Your Putting: Great Tip From Rickie Fowler

I followed Rickie Fowler at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. He actually does putt this rapidly. His best putting statistic is from 3'-5' where he makes 86% and ranks 94th.  Needless to say, on the PGA tour it's all about putting (for me the most boring and uninteresting part of the game). Speeding it up would at least reduce the pain and boredom (for the amateur, for the professional player and for the audience)!

Why the US Government Can't See Economic Bubbles

In yesterday's NY Times, Jared Bernstein (former chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden) wrote a perspective-from-experts piece (here) titled "Undoing the Structural Damage to Potential Growth". Dr. Bernstein presumably gets the attention of policy makers in Washington and in this piece he aligns himself with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)  for support. What is striking about the piece is that, without saying as much, he completely rejects the ideas that there was a Subprime-Mortgage Bubble which became visible in 2008 and argues that government policy could get us back to the peak level of GDP that was generated by the bubble. Let me try to summarize his argument.

The CBO (in the graphic above) has made two forecasts for "potential output," that is output the economy could maintain under full employment. The first forecast (bold dashed line) was from January 2007, right before the Subprime Mortgage bubble burst. It showed accelerating GDP growth into the foreseeable future. In February 2014, the CBO modified their forecast to show a lower rate of potential GDP  growth, 7.3% below the old forecast line which Bernstein translates into 10 million jobs lost. The Federal Reserve has argued that this labor market damage cannot be undone. Bernstein argues that it could if we ran a "high-pressure" economy fueled by government spending.

The theory underlying all this is an analogy derived from the physical sciences. When a physical system undergoes a permanent change (say the parts start wearing out because the system has been in production for a long time) the effect is referred to as hysteresis. Bernstein describes how the analogy works for economies:

When a cyclical problem morphs into a structural one, economists invoke the concept of hysteresis.  When this phenomenon takes hold...the economy undergoes a downshift that lasts through the downturn and well into the expansion, reducing the economy’s speed limit. 

The bottom line of his argument is that hysteresis can be reversed by "high-pressure" economic policy. He claims that results by "a number of top economists" are about to be published confirming the relationship between fiscal policy, hysteresis and reverse-hysterists.

To me, none of this argument is very clear: (1) If hysteresis is a permanent change how can it be reversed by spending more money rather than replacing the system's parts, the parts that are wearing out? (2) What is it about the Subprime Mortgage crisis that you would call cyclical? This is the worst recession since the Great Crash of 1929. That's a pretty long cycle. (3) What precisely is the mechanism that changes a cyclical problem to a structural problem (but it wasn't a cyclical problem)? What exactly is a structural problem, the parts wearing out? (4) Is the economy "downshifting" because the transmission is wearing out and gears are slipping or because the economy exceeded some speed limit (bubble)? OK, I'm really confused, but maybe this makes sense to Washington policy makers.

What's really going on here underneath all the analogies and mixed metaphors? Let's go back to the original CBO "potential output" forecasts. They use some basically simple equations to make these projections. If employment is a function of output then L = e(GDP), that is, employment is proportional (e) to GDP. If we reverse the equation and we assume some number for full employment, (L*)/e = GDP*, where L* is the assumed full-employment labor force and GDP* is full-employment output. This exercise is really just equivalent to picking some historical date and then drawing lines on graph paper--anyone can do it, not just the CBO.

In the graphic above I've plotted real GDP (GDPC96) over time (the solid black line). The dashed lines are the dynamic attractor paths for US GDP. I've written in more detail about how this plot and the attractor paths above were generated (here and here). The attractor path was basically generated by a state-space model of the US economy. It clearly shows the Subprime Mortgage Bubble and shows that we are currently pretty much on the attractor path in 2014. For understanding what the CBO is doing, you do not really need a model or even a simple equation.

You can pick any historical date and start drawing some lines. If you think 2003 was a reasonable place for the US economy to be, just connect it to another low point such as 2000 and you have a forecast out to 2009. If you think 2008 was a reasonable place for the US economy to be, as does the CBO and Jared Bernstein, then draw line B going off into infinity. If you changed your mind after the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, as the CBO did, draw line C and hope it returns to line B at some point in the future. Or, if you think 2012 was a reasonable GDP level for the US economy, draw line D which corresponds pretty well with the attractor path generated by the USL20 model.

Does anyone else beside the CBO and Jared Bernstein think that 2008 was a reasonable level for GDP? If you do, you do not believe in economic bubbles. You cannot take action to pop bubbles because bubbles do not exist. If you accept the Federal Reserve's argument that the Labor Market damage from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis cannot be undone and your common sense tells you that there was a Subprime Mortgage Bubble, the time to act was sometime between 2004 and 2006. The problem is that among those who accept the common sense idea of economic bubbles, no one can agree on how to identify a bubble (Line A or the USL20 attractor path) so policy makers cannot act. And, those who do not believe in bubbles are left with lines B, C and a comforting theory of potential output--or the harsh reality of line D.

A Great Song for the MidWest Winter

It's Snowing, it's Blowing,
My hatred of Winter is growing,
Enough is enough, Is enough,
....

Remember Donna Summer, remember Summer.

Is the "Settled Science" Argument a Straw Man?

The recent publication of the Fifth Scientific Assessment (AR5) from the IPCC concluding that human being are altering the climate has been met by a uniform response from the Right Wing: the idea that Science is settled, whether it be Climate Change or Evolution is a Myth. The argument surrounding "Settled Science" has actually been going on for a long time, especially between the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal (here). If the Right Wing doesn't like a scientific conclusion or theory it just argues that the science isn't settled. The Left Wing argues that science is never settled.

A recent opinion piece by Charles Krauthammer in the Washington Post (here) uses the settled-science myth to criticize the current Administration in Washington DC for worrying about climate change or requiring that health insurance cover mammograms. Since a recent large-scale, randomized clinical trial showed little benefit from mammograms (here), Mr. Krauthammer suggests that Climate Science will shortly also be overturned and, what is more, most scientific conclusions can be ignored by political commentators.

It is unfortunate that both sides have chosen to use the idea of "settled science" because the idea is wrong. Science is not about results and conclusions. Science is about "models" and the evidence that accumulates for and against the models. Some models have better support than others.

The best supported scientific model of climate change can be summarized with the I=PAT Model above (sometime called the Kaya Identity and a reasonable simplification of complex Integrated Assessment Models). Population growth (N) leads to more economic production (Q) which leads to greater energy use (E) which leads to greater CO2 emissions which leads to increases in global temperature (T). The competitor model (if the Right Wing can be said to have such a thing) would be that global temperature is a random walk,  T(t) = T(t-1) + U. Tomorrow's global temperature is today's global temperature plus random error, U (unknown).

The random walk competitor model is easily defeated (here). Until someone comes up with a better model and until there is some evidence either for or against that unknown model, the I=PAT model is the best one we have. Arguments about "settled science" do not lead to better models.

The same arguments can be applied to Mammograms, PSA screening for prostate cancer, or any area of scientific interest. First, we have to ask if good models are available. In the case of many medical findings, good models are not available. There are currently few good models for the causes of cancer. Screening is an attempt to find something early before it progresses. Screening would be better if it was less intrusive and if we knew what we were looking for (BRCA1 genetic screening is one example). None of this has anything to do with settled science.

Why the "Free" Market Needs Regulation

The Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire (March 25, 1911) was one of the deadliest industrial disasters in US history. Lest we forget why industrial capitalism needs government regulation and why there are labor unions, you can view the entire PBS American Experience documentary here.

Incredible Short Game Shots from the WGC

MARANA, AZ: The Accenture World Golf Championship (WGC) match play tournament ran all last week and concluded with Jason Day winning the overall title last Sunday. In addition to seeing players hitting drivers and 3-metals over 300 yards (for example, driving 343 yard par 4s) spectators (I was one of them) saw unbelievable short-game shots in all the matches. A collection of the shots are shown in the video above.

There were a couples things I learned from watching the short-game clinic that was being put on: (1) The best players calibrated their shots by taking enough practice swings to get a feel for distance while looking at the hole and then moved into position and hit the shot quickly without freezing over the ball. (2) Most of the shots were played with a square- or even closed-face 60-degree wedge. Very few flop shots were played except to get out of thick rough. (3) The same approach was used for putting: take enough practice swings while looking at the hole to calibrate distance then get up to the ball and hit the putt.

Some of the players who were not only long off the tee but also had great short games: Victor Dubuisson, Jason Day, Ernie Els, and Rickie Fowler--the four finalists. There has to be a lesson here somewhere!

Rory McIlroy Looks Good for the WGC-Accenture Match Play

MARANA, AZ: The World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship starts tomorrow (see the tee times, US Mountain time, here).  On Monday, I followed Rory McIlroy on the back nine at the Dove Mountain Golf Course. He eagled the par 5 in the video above after a great 300+ yard drive (in the video). Rory had a small staff of photographers following him, video-taping each shot from different angles. I asked one of the photographers how he thought Rory was playing right now and the answer was "Great!" as you can see from his swing and the drive in the video above. Rory tees off at 11:25 am Mountain Time against Boo Weekley and we should expect him to play well for the week.

Being from Wisconsin, I have a horse in this race and plan to follow Steve Stricker who has an 8:05 AM match against George Coetzee from South Africa. Steve has not played a professional tour event for 5 months and I will be interested to see how he plays in this match.

If you hit the PLAY ALL button in the video you will also get to see video of Kiradech Aphibarnrat of Thailand who I also followed on Monday. Tomorrow he has a 12:05 PM Mountain Time match against Henrik Stenson, the highest ranked player in the field. Kiradech is the lowest ranked player in the filed and got in to the tournament when Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott chose not to play in the event.

In case you want to handicap these matches:

Rory McIlroy PGA Tour Statistics
Boo Weekley PGA Tour Statistics
Steve Stricker PGA Tour Statistics
George Coetzee PGA Tour Statistics
Henirk Stenson PGA Tour Statistics
Kiradech Aphibarnrat PGA Tour Statistics

Shawn Foley Solves Problems with Stack & Tilt and Width Swings

In a recent article titled Smash Your Irons, professional golf instructor Shawn Foley (Tiger Woods current swing coach) simultaneously solved two problems, one with the Stack & Tilt Swing (S&T) and another with the Width Swing. In this post, I'll run through the issues and Shawn's solution.

I have played extensively with both the Width and the S&T swings and recently had to keep switching back and forth because both old and new problems would keep cropping up. When I was using the Width swing, I would hit the ball fat (an old problem). When I was using the S&T swing, I would starting hitting the ball very low (a new problem).

Luckily, I had a third swing alternative given to me by teaching professional Todd Sinclair. When Todd saw my S&T swing, he didn't like my setup and encouraged me to setup with most of my weight on my right foot and then tilt (rather than "stack" and "tilt"). I tried this for a while but didn't understand why I was doing it and returned to S&T. Then, one of my golf partners read the Foley article in Golf Digest and asked if this wasn't what Todd Sinclair had been telling me. This time I got it!

In the two left panels of the graphic above, Foley demonstrates the difference between the conventional setup and his suggested modification. Here is his explanation:

Instead of trying to keep your upper body back, a few simple adjustments will help you accomplish that and still shift toward the target. First, address the ball with a slight tilt in your shoulders so your spine is angled away from the target. Your left shoulder should be higher than your right (above, left). Also, flare out your left foot a little. This will help you make a powerful body rotation through the shot.

But before you start rotating your hips on the downswing, shift them toward the target a few inches—this should actually start happening before you finish swinging the club back. This blend of lateral and rotary motion is the only way to shift forward correctly and have the power of your body behind the shot (above, right). Do this, and you've got the secret to great ball-striking.

This is an interesting explanation of how to do the "hip shift" which is mentioned in the LAWs of Golf book but never really described. Weight shift involves simply starting with the weight on you rear foot and shifting it to the left foot as you complete your backswing. In order to compress the ball, you need to have your weight stacked on your left foot on the downswing (the position in the right frame in the graphic above--when I do this, I end up with a little more rearward tilt in my back than the S&T prototype and I'll explain why that's not a problem below).

What has not worked for me is the standard S&T setup (left frame in the graphic above), nor the backswing position of the Width Swing (middle graphic) or the "hip shift" position of the Width Swing (right pane in the graphic above). When the weight starts on my left foot, I hit the ball too low. When the weight stays on my right foot, I hit the ball fat.

By adding Todd Sinclair's suggestion (start with weight on your right side then tilt), you end up in an excellent position to compress the ball on the downswing (it's a blended position somewhere between the Width Swing and S&T that produces excellent ball flight). When I do this, I also turn my shoulders more fully because I realize that I need a fuller shoulder turn to get into the stacked position. My head stays just behind the ball (rather then way behind the ball as in the Width Swing) and I can take a more aggressive downswing from the more fully turned position. With the fuller shoulder turn, it also seems easier to get width into my swing without the danger of swaying.

Here's the revised swing sequence:

1. Setup up with weight on your right foot, shoulders tilted, left shoulder high and a relatively straight line from your left shoulder down your arm to the club head. When you do this, the club head will appear open, but this is the right orientation because you are going to hit the S&T "push draw" shot. If this feels uncomfortable or doesn't work or you don't want to move too far away from S&T, you can start with your weight on the left foot but then lean your upper body back as Foley suggests.
2. I like to begin shifting my left hip slightly toward the target before starting my backswing to make sure I do the hip shift properly.
3. Since I know the S&T swing (see the summary here), I just think "Tilt" at this point and make sure to take a full shoulder turn so my back is fully facing the target. If I started out with weight on my left foot, I just make sure my left knee flexes out so I can do the stand-up move (the downward left knee movement starts my backswing and the aggressive stand-up move starts the downswing with the hands being the last to fire--I have the distinct feeling of pulling the club from behind me into impact as I stand up).
4. At the top of the backswing I just think  "swing out" to produce the push draw. I can swing very aggressively without loosing my balance.

One comment I should make is that Todd Sinclair encouraged me to maintain very light grip pressure to allow a full release ("shaking hands with the target"). This is not standard S&T, which encourages a "no-roll" release (see my last post here). I will have more to say about this in a future post.

NOTE: There is some confusion about spine angle and whether it changes or not during the backswing (see a summary here). What has helped me resolve the confusion is an understanding of the difference between the primary and secondary spine angles.

In the graphic above of professional golfer Steve Elkington (from a video here), the primary spine angle is the yellow line in the left panel (the angle of the spine from down the line) and the secondary spine angle is the yellow vertical line in the right panel (the spine angle face on). At setup, the secondary S&T spine angle is close to 0 degrees. Shawn Foley is suggesting a different secondary spine angle. The primary spine angle will be unique to each golfer and depend on body type but will be around 30 degrees. The secondary spine angle will also be unique to the golfer but can vary from 8 degrees at address to 25 degrees at impact (more discussion here). Shawn Foley is suggesting increasing the secondary spine angle more toward the final impact position at address. For me, this had a big positive impact!

Adding More Turn and Width to Heather's Golf Swing

Today one of my golf partners played a round at the Arizona Biltmore golf course in Phoenix, AZ with "the best women golfer I've ever seen." He liked her swing so much that he taped it and sent it to me asking for my analysis. After watching the video, I thought that a few improvement could easily take her game to the next level.

The first thing you will notice from the video is that she is really able to swing hard and generate a lot of club head speed. I wouldn't necessarily change any of this, although I'll talk about her release after hitting the ball below. The problem I see is in her backswing position. Adding more width to her swing would increase her swing arc and thus increase her club head speed.

Consider professional golfer Gary Woodland's swing and a recent article about it titled Woodland's Wide-to-Wide Driver Swing.

Compare the two positions above with Heather's position at the top (in the image below).

The NO! side of Gary Woodlands swing looks pretty much like Heather's position at the top. In order to get into the YES! Width position, Heather would need to turn her hips and upper body more, extend her left arm back into the width dimension and keep her left foot on the ground or at least tilted to the right rather than raised off the ground on her toe. These changes would create a bigger swing arc (imagine a circle from the extended green arrow at the top all the way around to the ball) which could generate more swing speed and power.

Heather's hand release (above) might look unusual given some conventional golf instruction where instructors will tell you to "shake hands with the target," but this is not the only way to release the club. E. A. Tischler in Secrets of Owning Your Golf Swing describes three release patterns: covering, cornering and extending, the last one being "shake hands with the target." 

Jeffrey Mann describes Heather's release as the "no-roll" release (here) and shows Mike Bennet's release from the Stack & Tilt video as an example. This is a part of Heather's swing I would not change and certainly contributes to her accuracy and obvious power. An interesting question is whether Heather would benefit from moving toward the Stack & Tilt swing (just in case she can't get into Gary Woodland's great backswing position). Forward tilt toward the target would help keep her left foot on the ground and allow her to turn her upper body more easily.


Finally, to return to Gary Woodland, my golf partner and I followed Gary during the Waste Management Phoenix Open Pro-Am this year and the video above is one I took of his iron swing on the par 3 12th hole at the TPC Scottsdale course.

Where Is Hernando's Hideaway?

After playing golf today (see my prior post here) we had lunch at Elvira's Restaurant in Tubac, AZ. Elvira's was originally founded in 1927, not in Tubac but in Nogales, Mexico. Elvira's claims to have the best Mexican cuisine and award winning dishes (the food was great). They also play great Latin American Music. One song reminded us of Hernando's Hideaway from the musical Pajama Game (video above). After singing what we knew of the song, we went searching for the lyrics and uncovered this interesting bit of trivia (quoted from Wikipedia):

The Pajama Game is set in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Hernando's Hideaway was a raunchy dive in East Dubuque, Illinois, perched on a high cliff overlooking the highway between Dubuque and Galena. The movie was based on the stage play of the same name which, in turn, was based on the book; it is only in the original book that there is information about where the story takes place.

My golfing partner and his wife are from the Dubuque-Galena area! And, a guy at the bar, who overheard our conversation was from Sterling, IL. Here are some of the lyrics:

I know a dark secluded place
A place where no one knows your face
A glass of wine a fast embrace
It's called...Hernando's Hideaway...OLE?
All you see are silhouettes
And all you hear are castanets
And no one cares how late it gets
Not at Hernando's Hideaway...OLE?

At the Golden Fingerbowl or any place you go
You can meet your Uncle Max and everyone you know
...

POP TRIVIA QUIZ

Where is Hernando's Hideaway?

1. A sleazy bar in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
2. The smoking room for British parliamentarians in the House of Commons.
3. A number of places around the world based on the popularity of the song.
4. All of the above

Answers can be found here.

Taking the Tin Cup Shot

Today I played a round of golf at Tubac Golf Resort in Southern Arizona. I had a great time playing and there are a number of interesting things about this course:

• Parts of the movie Tin Cup were shot on this course  and you can play one of the "impossible shots" seen in the film.
• Your first tee shot on the Rancho nine (the course has 27 holes, the Otero, Anaz and Rancho nines, we played Rancho/Otero) is made (literally) from a bull pen with a live bull in it (see the lower-left image in the graphic below, this is not BS but there was a lot of it around the first tee). Luckily, he's a pretty sleepy, over-weight guy--but not to be messed with or hit with an errant drive!
• This weekend, they are having a classic car show to be staged on the practice range. One of street machines arrived as we were leaving (see the lower-right image in the graphic below).

The most notorious "impossible shot" scene from Tin Cup is where Roy "Tin Cup" McAvoy (played by Kevin Costner in the video above) has a chance to win the US Open (an impossible dream for Roy McAvoy, heavy drinking, down-and-out driving-range golf pro from West Texas). Instead of playing a sensible lay-up shot, Roy goes for the "impossible" 240-yard 3-wood shot over water, puts that one and a bunch more into the water to end up with a score of 12 on the hole (it was a par 5) to loose the tournament.

Earlier in the movie, Roy actually did make a similar impossible shot. That earlier scene was filmed at the Tubac Golf Resort (from the website):

Rancho # 4 - This long par 5, Tubac’s Tin Cup hole, requires three well struck shots to reach the green. Keep tee and second shots on the fairway’s right side, away from the trees and thick rough on the left. The pond fronting the green prevents all but the longest hitters from getting “home” in two. This hole was the setting for the scene in the movie “Tin Cup” where Kevin Costner was caddying for Don Johnson and Johnson wanted to lay up with a seven iron. Costner said he could do it and that is when Gary McCord, Peter Kostis, Craig Stadler and a young Phil Mickelson began to wager on whether or not he could pull it off.

On the Rancho #4 hole at the Tubac Golf Resort a plaque is set in the right rough, 240-yards over water to the pin. The plaque (upper-left image in the graphic above) says:

"Tin Cup-3 Wood" From this Spot "Roy McAvoy" hit it onto the green. GIVE IT A SHOT. 10-4-75

There were a handful of divots beside the plaque in the rough and it was a challenge I had to take. (Some background: I'm not really a great 3-wood player and seldom hit it from the fairway but in this case I was able to fluff the ball up on a tuft of grass in the rough so it was worth the try). My goal was to hit the ball into the water hazard (this would have been quite a poke for me since I can probably realistically hit the 3-wood between 210- and 220-yards) and say I took the tin cup shot.

I hit a pretty good shot but ended up well short of the water hazard (see the upper-right image in the graphic above). After the round, my playing partner asked the starter if any of the members have ever made the shot. He answered: "Hell no, they're all too old and none of them actually hit their driver 240-yards." Well, there you have it, another Bucket List checkmark: 

[X] Take the Tin Cup shot.

(My actual score on Rancho #4, after laying up with a 7-wood, was 5).