Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Blog Roll: Russia

 






Dec 29, 2025. Russia Threatens to Toughen Its Stance on Ending the War in Ukraine In a somewhat bizarre sequence of events, the US President (Donald Trump) had a phone call with the Russian President (Vladimir Putin), had a meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zalenskyy, and then had another call with Vladimir Putin. Without getting into the weird timing and details of these events (Was Trump getting Instructions from Putin? Was Putin looking for a pretext to continue fighting, etc. etc.), it seems that the peace process is in a "stalling mode" and the battlefield has settled into a stalemate. Why is this?

My state space statistical model of the Russian economy is also very unusual compared to other countries in the World-System. The RUL20 model is unstable and highly cyclical, forecast to peak again around 2050 and then collapse (again) after that. In other words, if Ukraine can hold out until 2050, the Russian Empire would collapse again as a results of it's own internal dynamics. But, 25 years is a long time.

Another interesting aspect of the RUL20 model is that the best Geopolitical Alignment for Russia would be for the country to join the European Union (!). Again, maybe the passing of a quarter century would be necessary for that to happen.

Here is a Blog Roll of my postings on Russia:

Continuing Imperialist alignments with Russia do not produce attractive outcomes, but unending and uncontrolled exponential growth will be an attractive future for some political-economic elites.


Notes

Wikipedia















Monday, December 29, 2025

Blog Roll: The Great Depression

 




The Great Depression of the Early 20th Century is (and was) a systemic event between World War I and World War II that has been intensely analyzed, if over-analyzed (see References below). The one viewpoint that seems to have been under-analyzed is the perspective of Systems Theory. The following is a Blog Roll of my postings on the topic:

Systems Theory opens up an entirely new perspective on the Great Depression. I will keep adding posts to this Blog Roll until I think I've attacked all the issues and competing explanations.

Notes

Readings


Friday, December 12, 2025

Blog Roll: Latin America

 




January 3, 2026. TRUMP INVADES VENEZUELA The New York Times is providing live updates here.

Dec 2025. The Trump Administration has resurrected the Monroe Doctrine and added a Trump "Corollary". What effects might be expected from carving the World-System up into Spheres of Influence? Here's a Blog Roll of my postings on Latin America:

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Thursday, November 27, 2025

Blog Roll: The United Kingdom (1950-2000+)


 




23 June 2026 Britain Is Still Deep in the Shadow of BrexitTen years after a slim majority voted to leave the European Union, the economic and political effects of that decision continue to disrupt the United Kingdom.


24 April 2026 
Could Trump withdraw US support for UK sovereignty of Falklands? Trump wants to punish European countries for not supporting his 2026 War on Iran.


A shock to the UK system will increase Overall Growth (UK1), increase Environmental damage (UK2)  and decrease Globalization-Human Development (UK3) (see the UKL20 Model).


After Leaving the European Union on on 31 January 2020 (Brexit), Britain's future remains murky. ChatGPT reports that:

If you are interested in forming your own opinions about the Economy of the United Kingdom, here is a Blog Roll of results from various historical Systems models:

  • The UKL19D Model Collapsing Economy, unstable Export-Urban Population controller.
  • The UKE20 Model During the Great Depression, the UK had doubly unstable Growth-Export and Export-Employment Controllers.
  • The UKL19 Model During the Late 19th Century, the British economy was unstable and collapsing due to an unstable Urban-Export controller.
  • The UK18 Model During the 18th Century, the British Economy was also unstable and collapsing due to an unstable Growth-Export Controller and an Unstable Export-Population Controller. Historically, the UK Economy was saved by the Industrial Revolution.
  • The UK17 Model During the 17th Century, the British Economy had an unstable Growth-Exports controller and an unstable Malthusian-Export controller (Exports allowing the economy to growth exponentially.
  • The UK16 Model During the 16th Century, the British Economy had an unstable Growth-Export controller and an unstable Urban-Population-Export controller, allowing the economy to growth exponentially.

You can run the UKL20 Model using R-code on my Google Site. The model is an unstable, Moving Equilibrium model that can be easily stabilized (see instructions in the code).

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Technology Long Waves

  


The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I can present some examples.

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Back-of-the-envelope Calculations: Global Warming



It was from [G. P.] Kuiper that I first got a feeling for what is called a back-of--the-envelope calculation: A possible explanation to a problem occurs to you, you pull out an old envelope, appeal to your knowledge of fundamental physics, scribble a few approximate equations on the envelope, substitute in likely numerical values, and see if your answer comes anywhere near explaining your problem. If not, you look for a different explanation, It cut through nonsense like a knife through butter.

Given the controversies that are currently swirling around Climate change (the President of the United States has called it a "hoax"), it would be useful for the non-scientists to have a back-of-the-envelope calculation to "cut through nonsense". There is a simple equation, called the Kaya Identity that would be very useful to understand.


I first became aware of the Kaya Identity on one of the first IPCC reports. The Kaya Identity proves a back-of-the-envelope way to calculate global temperature increase, T, from population growth. The current IPPC report, AR15, doesn't mention it in the introduction but it should. AR15 claims that it is already too late to limit anthropogenic (human caused) climate change. It is  dire warning but how can the non-scientists check the assertion. Let's work through he Kaya identity slowly and see what the calculations tell us.

The first step in the causal chain is the effect of population growth, N,  on economic production, Q. The Kaya equation is Q = qN where q is output per capita. In the Kaya framework, q is called an intensive variable while N and Q are extensive variables.


Blog Roll: The World System (1950-2000+)

 



The World System is in Growth-and-Collapse Mode. Realistic policy measures (aside from reducing growth rates) do not seem available (see the graphic below). 

The World System, typically used by the IPCC to model Global Climate Change, means one macro-system explaining environmental and economic trends of the World. The World-System (notice the hyphen), a term used by World-Systems Theory, refers to a "World of Systems" in which nation states and regions form hierarchical Geopolitical relationships.**

Here are some postings I have done from the perspective of both the World System and the World-System:

Some of the State Space Dynamic Components models (see the Boiler Plate) for the period 1950-2000+ are available as R-code and can be run here.


The World System is in Growth-and-Collapse mode (WL20 in the graphic above from the WL203 Model). A Steady State Economy can be created by reducing (to zero) some of the Historical Feedback Controllers (instructions are available in the WL20 Code)--not a realistic policy recommendation. 



Notes


** Of course, the World System could be one of the World-Systems. However, World-Systems Theory does not analyze the "World System" because there is no Political System controlling the World System. In the future, a Galactic Empire could form but, in Science Fiction, it is mostly conceptualized as a Fascist Dictatorship.



This video explains the rise and fall of the Galactic Empire:







Monday, November 17, 2025

Blog Roll: Argentina




 Wikipedia notes (here) that:

Argentina's economy has swung from one of the world's richest in the early 20th century to repeated cycles of boom, bust, and hyperinflation, driven by commodity dependence, political instability, and policy shifts.

The newest shock to the economy has come from president Javier Milei's  Economic Austerity policies which have, evidently, failed and required a $20 Bailout from the Trump II Administration

I have a systems model (ARL20) of the Argentine Economy which can be used to investigate (1) the Late 20th and early 21st century Economic History of Argentina and (2) alternative Geopolitical Futures for Argentina and the resulting economic impacts.

Monday, October 13, 2025

Blog Roll: European Union



 


The European Union is forecast to reach a Steady State around 2050 (see below). The News and Blog Roll below should be read in light of the impending Steady State Economy which might not be perceived by all commentators and politicians as desirable.

 



LeMonde reported, at the end of 2025, that Europe had become the largest supplier of arms to Ukraine, although the armaments were largely purchased from the US. And, in 2026 the EU and South America agreed to form a Free-Trade Zone with 700 million people. EU policy now seems to be a reaction to Geopolitical actions (and inactions) by the Trump II Administrations. From the graphic above (from ChatGPT), Security is not the only problem facing the EU.

I have a number of posts on the EU, but there is much more to analyze in the future:


The graphic above shows the State Variables for the EUL_20 Model. Three State Variables (EU1, EU2 and EU3) explain 99.6% of the variation in the underlying indicators (see the EUL20 Measurement Model below). EU1 is (Overall Growth) forecast to reach a steady state around 2050. EU2 is the Historical Emissions Controller which will continue to decline. EU3 is the Unemployment Controller which, after cycles in the late 20th Century, is forecast to be at equilibrium in the future.

Notes


You can run the EU_L20 Model (here) along with a number of other models for EU Countries. Explanations for data sources and how the models were constructed can be found in the Boiler Plate.

ChatGPT


More Video 

 

Wikipedia

The biggest Security problem facing the EU is Russian Expansionism. For more background, see my Blog Roll: Russia. The Russian Economy is highly cyclical and might well collapse (again) in the next few decades. However, integration of Ukraine in the EU will remain a problem as long as Russian Expansionism continues (see my Blog Roll: Ukraine).

Will the UK decide to return to the EU? See whether my Blog Roll: UK will help you make a forecast.

Do you think the EU-LA Free Trade Zone will help either the EU or Latin America? See my Blog Roll: Latin America.

EU_L20 Measurement Model


Three components in the EU_L20 state space explain 99.6% of the variation in the indicator variables: EU1 = (Overall Growth), EU2 = (CO2 - LU) an Environmental-Unemployment Controller and EU3 = (LU - Q) an (Unemployment - GDP) controller.

EU_L20 BAU System Matrix

The EU_L20 System Matrix is stable, meaning that the system will eventually reach a steady state.




Google AI


Friday, October 10, 2025

Blog Roll: Venezuela




April 10, 2026 Can Venezuela Recover Maybe? Treacherous!


Jan 3, 2026. TRUMP INVADES VENEZUELA The New York Times is providing live updates here. My models (e.g., the VEL20 model, Latin American Regional Models and links below) suggest that the invasion and the aftermath (Trump claims the US will run the country) will not end well and are not in the best interests of Venezuela.

October 2025. Venezuela is currently in the News because the US appears to be planning an invasion of the country. Wikipedia notes (here) that "With the turn of the 21st century, the Venezuelan economy has been in a state of total collapse since 2013."

Here are some background forecasts from my VEL20 model and a model of the Latin American Region
Activities within Latin American and within the MAGA movement suggest that events in Venezuela and in the US are changing quickly and cannot be easily predicted. Hopefully, historical models and forecasts will make events that happen in the future somewhat more understandable.

You can experiment yourself with the VE20 model using an R-code simulation (here). To understand how the statistical models are created and estimated, see the Boiler Plate

Exercise: How will the negative shock of invasion affect the state of the country (see the last line of code in the VE20 model)?

 Background




US Planned Invasion






US Extraction of Maduro