The Russo-Ukrainian War began in 2014 and is still ongoing without any clear sign of resolution. What the Russian Invasion will mean for the Ukrainian Economy is not clear but it has been a sever shock to the system. On this page, I will list what I have learned so far about the Ukrainian Economy and Russian Economy in the hopes of understanding what might happen in the future. I will continue to update this page as I learn more.
- Seven Futures for Ukraine The UAL20 BAU model with different inputs suggests that there are not many desirable attractor paths for Ukraine. Most attract paths are worse than a Random Walk, with only the Business-as-Usual (BAU) model and linking to the Russian Economy being better.
- Five Futures for Russia Interestingly enough, the best future for Russia is linkage with the European Union! Google AI reports:
- Is the EU Heading for a Steady State? From the standpoint of conventional Neoclassical Economic Growth analysis, future prospects for the EU don't look that good either. The EU may become a Steady State Economy. From the standpoint of continued Environmental damage, this might be a good thing. From the standpoint of growth-obsessed Russia, it would be unattractive.
My objective at this point (since the future us unknowable) is to try to figure out how the Ukrainian Economy, the Russian Economy and the economies of the European Union work and understand how they will respond to the shocks of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
For more information about how my State Space models are estimated and constructed, see the Boiler Plate.
