Blog Roll: The European Union (EU)

Aug 15, 2026 Europe's Great Rivers are Dying. The Continent is in for a shock.

Aug 6, 2026 Drought Threatens a Vital Economic Artery in the Heart of Europe The Rhine conveys vessels and cargo that power European industry. 

July 17, 2026 Europe Proposes Weaker Policy for Reducing Emissions The European Union is facing a green backlash as emissions cuts become harder and require bigger overhauls to industry and livelihoods.

Posts

• Temperature shocks: Growth and Unemployment in the EU. Heat Waves are systemic problems.
• EU Gives Up on Climate Change Regulation. Really? Emissions are declining, but reduction seeem to be reaching their lower limit.
• Was the EU Economy Wrecked by Austerity? It depends on the attractor path.
• Is the EU Heading for a Steady-State Economy? Maybe!
• Was it a mistake for Britain to Enter the EU? Growth is slowing, regardless of EU membership.
• Should Britain have Exited the EU? The answer involves a counterfactual!
• Is Another EU Recession Likely?  Again, it depends on the attractor path!
• How Does the Steady-State Economy of the European Union Work? Commentators are confusing the approach of the Steady-State Economy with Economic Stagnation.
• Western Europe Growth and Collapse (1800-Present) There is a long-run collapse mode for Western Europe.
  
  

You can also run the EUL20 model here. The EUL20 model is stable and will reach Steady-State Economy sometime around 2046.

The Steady-State Economy will intially be misinterpreted as failure and Economic Stagnation resulting in Political Instability.

Wikipedia Links

• The European Union a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe.
• Politics of the European Union  The political structure of the European Union (EU) is similar to a confederation, where many policy areas are federalised into common institutions capable of making law; the competences to control foreign policy, defence policy, or the majority of direct taxation policies are mostly reserved for the twenty-seven state governments (the Union does limit the level of variation allowed for VAT).
• History of the European Union a geo-political entity, created in 1993, covering a large portion of the European continent.
• Geography of the European Union a multinational polity that occupies a large portion of Europe and covers 4,225,104 km² (1,631,322 sq mi). Its European territory extends northeast to Finland, northwest to Ireland, southeast to Cyprus in Asia and southwest to the Spanish exclaves on the Mediterranean shores of North Africa. Additionally, the EU includes numerous islands around the world, and French Guiana in South America.
• Economy of the European Union It makes up the majority of the European economy as the second largest economy in the world in nominal terms, after the United States.

 

Blog Roll: Israel

Up to the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War and since WWII, Israel has been involved in Seven Wars in the Middle East. Google AI Warns:

At the same time, the causes of the 2026 US-Israel-Iran War are entangled with the legal problems of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

In my lifetime, there has never been peace in the Middle East and there has never been a US President serving with a lengthy record of Impeachments and criminal prosecutions. The day-to-day Political Events are surely a Random Walk, but there must be some causal structure in the long-term models.

Here is a Blog Roll of my posting on Israel:

• Alternative Geopolitical Alignments for Israel Nothing very realistic.
• What If Israel was the Hegemonic Leader of the Middle East It depends on whether you value a Steady State Economy or not.
• A Steady State Economy for Israel is possible but unlikely given the ongoing Regional War.
• Cycles and Steady State for Israel Geopolitical Alignment with the US will create continuing cycles of development in the future.
• Technological Change in Israel Learning-by-Doing is the most important source of Technical Change and is driven by the Military, Economic, and Geopolitical challenges Israel faces.

None of my models predict Peace in the Middle East! 

Notes

More readings:

• Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters
• The Crisis in the Middle East is a Crisis of Growth
• The Myth of Israel Innovation

You can run the IL_L20 model, written in R-code, here. Instructions in the code show how to stabilize the system. Other models for the Middle East and North Africa are available here.

The Peace Process

• Abraham Accords a set of agreements that established diplomatic normalization between Israel and several Arab states, beginning with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
• Oslo Accords a pair of interim agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): the Oslo I Accord, signed in Washington, D.C., in 1993;^[1] and the Oslo II Accord, signed in Taba, Egypt, in 1995.
• Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty following the 1978 Camp David Accords, the Egypt–Israel treaty was signed by Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt, and Menachem Begin, Prime Minister of Israel, and witnessed by Jimmy Carter, President of the United States.
• Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty an agreement that ended the state of war that had existed between the two countries since the 1948 Arab–Israeli War and established mutual diplomatic relations.
• Gaza Peace Plan a multilateral agreement between Israel and Hamas that aims to address the ongoing Gaza war and broader Middle Eastern crisis.
• Two-State Solution a proposed approach to resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, by creating two states on the territory of the former Mandatory Palestine.
• Arab-Israel Normalization since the 1970s, a parallel effort to find terms upon which peace can be agreed to in the Arab–Israeli conflict and also specifically the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

The Combatants

• Axis of Resistance
• Hamas
• Houthis
• Hezbollah 
• Islamic Jihad
• Qasem Soleimani 
• Quds Force
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
• Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq
• Palestinian militant organizations
• Shia insurgency in Iraq
• Russian involvement in the Syrian civil war
• Muslim Brotherhood
• Ali Khamenei
• Shiite Islam
• Naim Qassem
• Bashar al-Assad

The Map

Blog Role: Climate Change

Overshoot and Collapse

Sep 2, 2026 UN Says World will Miss 1.5 Target Carbon removal at scale combined with emissions reduction is the only way to avert catastrophic warming.

UNEP (Sep 2026) Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return Here's the UN Report

July 17, 2026 How to Abandon Your Climate Commitments and Get Away With It. Big business made big promises about saving the planet. Following through hasn’t been easy.

July 16, 2026 Top Science Panel Backs Research Linking Extreme Weather to Climate Change Attribution science is advancing quickly, researchers said. That could support lawsuits seeking damages for severe events worsened by global warming.

April 11, 2026 Northeast US Climate Goals are in Big Trouble

March 22, 2026 The Balance That Keeps Climate Stable Is Out of Whack, U.N. Report Finds

Feb 10, 2026. The NY Times is reporting that Trump Allies Near ‘Total Victory’ in Wiping Out U.S. Climate Regulation. Right-wing Conservative Zealots have been working on destroying the Clean Air Act since it was enacted in 1963. With the help of a Conservative Supreme Court and a poorly administered Environmental Protection Agency, they appear to be on the verge of success.

Here is a blog roll of my posts on Climate Change:

• A Primer on Climate Change Denial Scientific Consensus: the World is Warming and it is due to Human (Anthropogenic) forces.
• Climate Feedbacks and Climate Change Denial Feedback effects are too weak to overcome uncontrolled exponential growth in emissions.
• Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) Computer models that implement the current state of scientific knowledge on Climate Change. Climate Change Deniers offer no comparable models.
• Back of the Envelope calculations on Global Warming. So you don't believe the IAMS? You can do the calculations yourself on a piece of scrap paper (HINT: they won't support Climate Change Denial).
• Is the "Settled Science" Argument a Straw Man?  Scientific consensus is never "settled" but a few wack-a-doodle books, articles and arguments don't destroy it.
• Is there a role for Nuclear Power in reducing CO2 Emissions? Maybe.
• What do "Intelligent Design" and "Climate Change Denial" have in common? Wack-a-doodle arguments.
• The most important IPCC Graphic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the UN has been working since 1988 to document the scientific consensus on Climate Change. It has produced a lot of documentation which has been difficult for Climate Change Deniers to digest. Here is a simple graphic comparing anthropogenic and natural climate forcings.
• Earth System Complexities  Needless to say, the World Environmental System has a level of complexity that eludes computer models and qualitative commentaries. Here's a simple flow chart.
• Why are Winters getting Colder? A favorite argument of Climate Change Deniers (here), but there is a scientific explanation.
• What is Conservative Philosophy really about? Self-dealing.
• Russia is Burning. Climate Change is real in Russia (so Let's Invade Ukraine).
• Are there Feedback Loops that could control Energy Use and CO2 Emissions? Maybe, but they are not strong enough to prevent Climate Change.
• Hottest Years on Record are difficult to explain away.
• A Global Warming Denial based on Vapor Hiss and Poof!
• Carbon Accounting and Policy What is the Carbon Cycle and why isn't it in balance?
• Scientific Consensus and the Precautionary Principle. If you still think Climate Change isn't real, what is a rational response?
• CO2 Emissions and Ocean Acidification The CO2 has to go somewhere and the fish and aquatic plants (e.g. coral) don't like it.
• Why Climate Change will lead to more Hurricanes. The energy pumped into the atmosphere has to go somewhere!
• An Inconvenient Half-Truth Will sea-level rise flood New York and Trump's Mar-a-Lago?
• The Dangers of Environmentalism Is the Environmental Movement inspired by the Devil?
• Why Science is never settled. It's an iterative system.
• Feedbacks from Ecosystem Pressure. Can we adapt our way out of any Environmental Crisis?
• Are Carbon Markets back from the Dead? Economists once argued that Carbon Markets (trading emission rights for mitigations) could solve the Climate problem. They were wrong, but Free-Market Environmentalism will never die.
• Controlling CO2 Emissions. One way is to have a permanent Global Financial Crisis.

Projections from My State Space Models

So IAMS, paper-and-pencil calculations and opinionated blather are not good enough for the Skeptical Environmentalist? Here are results from my own, statistically estimated models:

• Blog Roll: The World System (1950-2000+) No support for Climate Change Deniers here.

However, Global Temperature will peak sometime after 2050.

The reason is that the World System (at least the WL203 Model) goes into Collapse Mode reducing the causes of rising temperatures. None of this will be pleasant.

Blog Roll: Brazil

Aug 5, 2026 U.S. Revokes Visa of Top Brazilian Diplomat, Dialing Up Tensions The State Department has canceled the visa of the Brazilian ambassador in Washington, deepening a diplomatic crisis between the two countries.

Jan 5, 2026. After the Invasion of Venezuela by the Trump Administration, Brazil lined up as one of the Latin American countries that condemned the attack (here). It was also one of the Latin American countries hit hard by Trump Tariffs.

Coffee is a good example (graphic above from Trading Economics). In 2025, Trump imposed tariffs on Brazilian coffee and prices in the super market begin to rise and Trump's approval ratings begin to decline. One November 20, 2025, Reuters reports (here) that Trump lifted the tariffs. Trump had been arguing that even though tariffs were taxes, they would be paid by the importers. That turned out not to be true (something Trump could have learned in ECON 101).

Here is a Blog Roll of my other postings on Brazil:

• Seven Futures for Brazil Alignment with the US or the other Latin American Countries (LAC) is best.

Blog Roll: Russia

 

Dec 29, 2025. Russia Threatens to Toughen Its Stance on Ending the War in Ukraine In a somewhat bizarre sequence of events, the US President (Donald Trump) had a phone call with the Russian President (Vladimir Putin), had a meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zalenskyy, and then had another call with Vladimir Putin. Without getting into the weird timing and details of these events (Was Trump getting Instructions from Putin? Was Putin looking for a pretext to continue fighting, etc. etc.), it seems that the peace process is in a "stalling mode" and the battlefield has settled into a stalemate. Why is this?

My state space statistical model of the Russian economy is also very unusual compared to other countries in the World-System. The RUL20 model is unstable and highly cyclical, forecast to peak again around 2050 and then collapse (again) after that. In other words, if Ukraine can hold out until 2050, the Russian Empire would collapse again as a results of it's own internal dynamics. But, 25 years is a long time.

Another interesting aspect of the RUL20 model is that the best Geopolitical Alignment for Russia would be for the country to join the European Union (!). Again, maybe the passing of a quarter century would be necessary for that to happen.

Here is a Blog Roll of my postings on Russia:

• Five Futures for Russia Joining the EU provides the best future for Russia!
• Geopolitical Futures for Ukraine Alignment with Russia is positive if cyclical but the best model is Business-As-Usual (no Geopolitical Alignment).
• A New Axis of Evil? Geopolitical alignment of Russia, India and China do not produce attractive model forecasts for any of the countries.
• Futures of Syria Geopolitical Alignment with Russia is OK, but Business-as-usual (no Geopolitical Alignment) is best.
• Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts for the World System  In terms of unending, uncontrolled exponential growth, alignment with Russia would be best but the environmental consequences would be quite negative.
• Futures for China Alignment with Russia would produced uncontrolled, unending exponential growth that would have negative environmental consequences.
• US Attempts to Dominate India Geopolitical Alignment with Russia  would produce a strongly cyclical future for India with large growth and collapse cycles.
• Seven Futures For Iran Geopolitical alignment with Russia would produce collapse.
• Futures for the World System Dominance by Russia would produce strong cycles of growth and collapse.
• Futures for Argentina Alignment with Russia produces unending, uncontrolled exponential growth and an environmental nightmare.
• Latin American Forecasts Alignment with Russia would produce immediate collapse.
• Forecasts for Columbia Alignment with Russia would produce wild cycles of growth and collapse.
• Futures for Germany Alignment with Russia would produces unstable cycles of growth and collapse.

Continuing Imperialist alignments with Russia do not produce attractive outcomes, but unending and uncontrolled exponential growth will be an attractive future for some political-economic elites.

Notes

Wikipedia

Economy of Russia

Shadow Economy of Russia

Economic History of the Russian Federation

Economic History of the Russian Empire

Corruption in Russia

Economy of Ukraine

History of Russia

Russian Empire

Russo-Ukrainian War

Blog Roll: France

 

MSC 2026 WATCH: France’s Macron says 'Europe has to learn’ to be a geopolitical power in Munich (video above)

Oct 1, 2026 France's debt and economy are clearly taking on Italian characteristics What threatens France is not so much the risk of bankruptcy as the prospect of a slow decline similar to Italy's trajectory since the 1980s, writes Le Monde journalist Eric Albert in his column.

Sept. 9, 2025  The French government has collapsed again "less than 24 hours after its formation" (here). It seems like a good time to look back at what I have found about the French Economy:

• Forecasting the Great Depression in France France was changed by WWI and reacted very conservatively to the Great Depression, making forecasting difficult.
• How is the French Labor Market Controlled? The role of World Markets for Agriculture and Oil.
• Has Austerity Helped or Hurt the French Economy? It's complicated but leads to a lot of Protest.
• Breaking Cycles of Austerity in France Find some way other than Austerity to control the Economy.
• La French TECH Cycles unlike Schumpeter's Creative Destruction cycles are stable.
• French Debt, Collapse of the Government and COVID-19 The lingering effects of the COVID shock are still with us and the French government is still preoccupied with Random Walk components rather than controlling the overall Economy.
• Six Futures for France A Steady State Economy or Growth-and-Collapse will not be accepted without Protest.
• World System: Steady State or Collapse The World System itself may be moving toward a Steady State Economy.
• How Does the Economy of France Work? The main controllers of the French Economy are not Austerity and Neoliberalism but rather the Environment and Unemployment.
• France in the Long Sixteenth Century Geopolitical Linkages between France and England have always been important historically.
• France (1450-1540) The Balance of Power System (Spain, France and England) began failing during this period.
• The French Revolution A Bourgeoise Revolution driven by the Urbanization Controller.

There is certainly a lot more to learn about the French economy. The important conclusion, at this point in my research, is that France might be heading toward a Steady State Economy which will lead to a period of World-System Chaos before government's learn to deal with the end of growth or Environmental Collapse or are able to discover new growth technologies through Schumpeter's Creative Destruction.

Blog Roll: Iran

May 15, 2026 Stop Looking for an 'Off Ramp' in Iran, NY TIMES

April 18, 2026 For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent Trump gave Iran a new weapon! Reopening the Straight of Hormuz will not reduce oil prices anytime soon.

April 17, 2026 Iran declares Strait of Hormuz 'completely open' during ceasefire (maybe)

April 16, 2026 What the Iran War Means for the "Axis of Resistance"

April 15, 2026 Trumps "Swiss Cheese" Blockade

April 12, 2026 US-Iran Peace Talks Fail

April 10, 2026 Will Trump Nuke Iran?

April 9, 2026 Iran ceasefire deal gives Trump a way out of war - but at a high cost

April 8, 2026 Iran 10 point Ceasefire deal (maybe).

Mar 31, 2026 Live Updates: Iran war pushes gas price over $4 a gallon as Trump mulls dropping Strait of Hormuz efforts

Mar 25, 2026 Iran rejects Washington's 15-point plan and escalates attacks on Israel and Gulf tells Trump to pound sand.

Mar 23, 2026 Iran Negotiations Resume (maybe) 

Mar 22, 2026 Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Power Plants, a War Crime.

Feb 28, 2026 Live Updates: U.S. and Israel Strike Iran as Trump Calls for Overthrow of Government

Feb 22, 2026  NY Times Trump Considers Targeted Strike Against Iran, Followed by Larger Attack

Feb 19, 2026 As Trump Weighs Iran Strikes, He Declines to Make Clear Case for Why, or Why Now

  

Feb 18, 2026 The New York Times reported today that U.S. Military Moves Into Place for Possible Strikes in Iran. From the article:

Jan 1, 2026 The New York Times reported recently that Most of Iran Shuts Down as Government Grapples With Protests and Economy. The article notes that:

Jul 9, 2025 Iran has been in the news lately after US and Israel bombings. However, the problems for Iran are really historically driven and go back to the immediate aftermath of WWII. I have state-space models of the Iranian economy from 1950 to the present and use the models to help understand Iran's historical development 

HINT: the Iranian economy is an historically driven economy not a Neoclassical Economy. 

Here's a blog roll:

• Seven Futures for Iran No Geopolitical Alignment (Business-as-Usual) is best for Iran but the country does not seem able to management it's own economy.
• Five Futures for the Middle East The best model for the Middle East is to stabilize growth rates with no Geopolitical Alignments. 
• The Iranian Revolution Still being worked out today.
  
• A Deep Dive into the Iranian State Space Cycles vs. Control
  
• Will Israel and US Attacks Hurt the World-System? Yes
  
• How Does the Iranian Economy Work? Not like a Neoclassical, free-market economy.
  
• What was the Impact of the Iranian Revolution? Elimination of Cycles!
  
• Stabilizing the Iranian Economy Easy but not easy!
  
• Iranian Globalization and Unemployment created the discontent that led to the Iranian Revolution.
• Iran as a Neoclassical Economy US Technological domination!

US Military Buildup (Feb 19, 2026)

From the New York Times Feb 19, 2026 (here):

Further reading:

• Axis of Resistance an informal Iran-led military coalition that operates across West Asia.

• Iranian Revolution a series of events that culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979.

• Strait of Hormuz a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.

• Straight of Hormuz Crisis Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran and assassinated its supreme leader Ali Khamenei. 

• Iran-Contra Affair a political scandal in the United States that centered on arms trafficking to Iran between 1981 and 1986, facilitated by senior officials of the Ronald Reagan administration

• Iran Nuclear Program one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world, has sparked intense international concern.

• Pahlavi Iran the Iranian state under the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty. The Pahlavi dynasty was created in 1925 and lasted until 1979 when it was ousted as part of the Iranian Revolution, which ended the Iranian monarchy and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.

• Iran-Iraq War an armed conflict between Iran and Iraq that lasted from September 1980 to August 1988. Active hostilities began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran and lasted for nearly eight years, until the acceptance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 by both sides.

• Iranian Economy a mixed, centrally planned economy with a large public sector. It consists of hydrocarbon, agricultural and service sectors, in addition to manufacturing and financial services, with over 40 industries traded on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

• The White Revolution a far-reaching series of reforms to aggressively modernize the Imperial State of Iran launched on 26 January 1963 by the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and ended with his overthrow in 1979.

• Modernization Theory holds that as societies become more economically modernized, wealthier and more educated, their political institutions become increasingly liberal democratic and rationalist.

• Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration The United States foreign policy during the presidency of John F. Kennedy from 1961 to 1963 included diplomatic and military initiatives in Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, all conducted amid considerable Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe.

• Sharia Law a body of religious law that forms a part of the Islamic tradition based on scriptures of Islam, particularly the Qur'an and hadith.

• What the Iran War Means for the “Axis of Resistance Iranian defiance is not simply a strategic imperative but a value rooted in history and identity.