Malthusian Crisis in Ethiopia?

 

Wasn't Malthus Wrong?

The PBS NewsHour is reporting (here) that "millions ... [in Ethiopia] ... still face the risk of starvation as a result of drought conditions", even though the Civil War ended in November, 2022. The last time Ethiopia faced famine was in 1984. Last March, the World Food Program and the USAID suspended food deliveries because grain was being stolen, sold on the black market and not getting to those in need.

Why should I even bother trying to apply a Malthusian model to Ethiopia (ETH) when Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus and most of the Economics profession argue that a Neoclassical General Equilibrium model (the DICE model) apples to every region of the World-System and, supposedly, to every country in the World-System. Critics will argue that I am just trying to push the conventional Malthusian policy conclusion: Ignore the poor and hungry because feeding them will just increase their birth rate and further increase population pressure.

World-Systems Theory (WST) has an answer to the question of what is the appropriate model to apply to a particular country: It depends on the country's place in the hierarchical structure of the World-System. Is it a Core, Semi-peripheral or Peripheral country? Core countries are mostly Capitalist, Semi-peripheral countries are Mixed with some elements of Capitalism and Peripheral countries are, I would argue, Malthusian-agricultural economies living on the edge of repeated food crisis and domination by core and semi-peripheral countries.* Most readers will understand what a Capitalist or Mixed economy is because they live in one. But what is a Malthusian economy?

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was an English economist, cleric and scholar (political economy and demography). He predicted, controversially, that if population growth exceeded the productive capacity (carrying capacity) of the economy, a Malthusian Crisis would result, where "positive checks" such as famine, war, drought, immigration, etc. would reduce population pressure. Only "preventive checks" (birth control, delayed marriage, etc.) would prevent these catastrophes because population growth would, if uncontrolled, always exceed the productive capacity of the economy.

Famines have occurred periodically in the history of Ethiopia according to records dating to the 9th Century. To say why these famines happened and that they are definitely not the result of population pressure would be amazingly arrogant. And, to say that Neoclassical Economic Theory applies to all countries and to all recorded history would be equally arrogant. In fact, none of the modern models can be tested on Ethiopia because, aside from sparse World Bank data after WWII (the WDI or World Development Indicators), data is very weak for Ethiopia (although there is more data for regions in Africa but still not enough to test the regional DICE model).

Still, Karl Marx (1818-1883) called Malthus' population principle a "libel on the human race" and Malthus himself the "reverend scribbler." Indeed, "every schoolboy knows that Malthus was wrong" (Benjamin Higgins, 1968). Julian Simon (1932-1998) has argued that the World's carrying capacity is essentially unlimited. On the other hand, Jared Diamond has documented that the Rwanda Genocide was the result of population pressure. Why is Malthusian Theory so controversial and requires current analysts to keep writing Why Malthus Is Still Wrong. The continuing confusion involves failing to differentiate between the "Malthusian Model," the evidence supporting it, the "Malthusian Policy Recommendations" and the World-System. This particular Model-Evidence-Policy-System confusion, however, is true of every mental or formal model and is worth understanding for the well-documented and simple Malthusian Model.

The Malthusian Model (MM) is the model on which all other models are implicitly based (see Table I). Usually population growth is taken as exogenous because Capitalist economies can accommodate the demands of an expanding population. The original MM was simply two equations: a linear one for production growth, Q, and a geometric one for population growth, N. The equations didn't interact as a system** and when growth in N exceed Q, a Malthusian crisis was triggered. Kenneth Boulding put (Q,N) together in a system, with no assumptions about functional forms, and we have the modern version. The MM System model uses the state of the system S=(Q-N) as an Error-Correcting Controller (ECC); when (Q>N) population can expand (a feedback effect) and when (Q<N) population will contract through "positive checks".

Measuring Crisis

The MM Systems Model can be estimated for Ethiopia after WWII using the WDI to determine the state of the Malthusian Crisis. The first step is to estimate a measurement model using data we have from the WDI. N and Q are the most complete series and, luckily, form the basic Malthusian model.

 Measurement Matrix 

      N     Q

[1,]  0.707 0.707

[2,] -0.707 0.707

 Fraction of Variance 

[1] 0.958 1.000

The Measurement matrix can be estimated using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The components will be used to form the approximate state variables of the Malthusian System. When estimated, the first component is overall growth (ETH1 = 0.707 N + 0.707 Q) and the second component, the Error Correcting Growth Controller (ETH2 = 0.707 Q - 0.707 N). Growth explains 96% of the variance and the ECC explains 4%.

The Figure above shows ETH1 (Growth) and ETH2 (The Malthusian ECC) plotted over time. ETH2 enters negative Malthusian-Criss territory around 1990 and starts recovering after 2010 (the 1983-1985 Famine was the worst in a Century and started the downward slide in the Malthusian Crisis). Overall growth (ETH1) although wiggling a little over time was not permanently affected.

Typically, commenting on historical time plots is as far as historical analysis gets, Malthusian or not. But I want to estimate a system model and try to understand how trends are causally related. 

Modeling Results

Modeling forces the question of "What is the System?" World Systems Theory (WST) provides a framework for answering the question. Ethiopia (ETH) is a country embedded with in a system of other countries. 

Discussion

NOTES

* My identification of Ethiopia as a Peripheral Country is a little casual and can be debated (see Babones, 2005). In studying the WDI, one indicator of Peripheral status is simply the lack of information in the data set. Semi-Peripheral and Core countries are fully populated with data.

** We might criticize Malthus for not inventing Systems Theory (a Twentieth Century discovery) and Marx came close recognizing that social systems are "over-determined" (Wolff and Resnick, 2006). You can read more Marx and Engels on the Population Bomb here. Unified Growth Theory puts all these various approaches together in one model starting with the MM at low levels of growth or stagnation (the Malthusian Trap) and ending with the Steady State Economy.

Appendix: ECC Models

Appendix: Systems Model

Models have a compact R-code in dse and can be run easily in Snippets. Note that the RUL20 model is only unstable in the feedback components $F[3,3] = 1.03$. If you stabilize the third feedback component (e.g.,$F[3,3] = 0.98$)  the entire system is stable. 

===========

merge.forecast <-

function (fx,n=1) {

#

# Merges a forecast with the output data

x <- splice(fx$pred,fx$forecast[[n]])

colnames(x) <- seriesNames(fx$data$output)

return(x)

}

#

#

# RUL20  Russia (1950-2000)

#

# Measurement Matrix 

#    EN.ATM.CO2E.KT EG.USE.COMM.KT.OE NY.GDP.MKTP.KD SL.TLF.TOTL.IN SP.POP.TOTL

#[1,]        0.28209            0.4060         0.3336         0.4343      0.3721

#[2,]       -0.43993           -0.2199        -0.1359         0.1328      0.2266

#[3,]        0.06433           -0.1446         0.5944         0.0494     -0.3944

#     SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS     HDI      EF    KOF

#[1,]         0.1893 0.43400  0.2348 0.1948

#[2,]         0.4971 0.03409 -0.3950 0.5161

#[3,]        -0.3374 0.22538 -0.4878 0.2470

#

 #Fraction of Variance 

#[1] 0.5489 0.8484 0.9677 0.9814 0.9921 0.9975 0.9988 0.9995 1.0000

require(dse)

require(matlab)

AIC <- function(model) {informationTestsCalculations(model)[3]}

f <- matrix( c( 0.976658001, 0.02127754,  0.2249071, 0.161990376,

                     -0.008392259, 0.97543675, -0.2319674, 0.001666581,

                     -0.005587383, 0.09718186,  1.0312754, 0.035854885,

                      0.000000000, 0.00000000,  0.0000000, 1.000000000

),byrow=TRUE,nrow=4,ncol=4)

h <- eye(3,4)

k <- f[1:4,1:3,drop=FALSE]

RUL20 <- SS(F=f,H=h,K=k,

z0=c(0.161990376, 0.001666581, 0.035854885, 1.00000000),

              output.names=c("RU1","RU2","RU3"))

stability(RUL20)

#tfplot(simulate(RUL20,sampleT=20))

shockDecomposition(toSSChol(RUL20))

RUL20.data <- simulate(RUL20,sampleT=50,start=1950,noise=matrix(0,50,3))

m <- l(RUL20,RUL20.data)

#tfplot(m)

AIC(m)

tfplot(RUL20.f <- forecast(m,horizon=50))

RUL20.fx <- merge.forecast(RUL20.f)

#    Models have a compact R-code in dse and can be run easily in Snippets. 

#    The RU20 must be run first to provide input for #ETH20.

#

# W20 ETH (Ethiopia) Russia Input

#

# Measurement Matrix 

#       N  Q

#[1,]  0.707 0.707

#[2,] -0.707 0.707

#

#Fraction of Variance 

#[1] 0.958 1.000

#

require(dse)

require(matlab)

AIC <- function(model) {informationTestsCalculations(model)[3]}

f <- matrix( c(  1.04647269, -0.1059723, 0.10155553,

                        0.01918655,  0.9306230, 0.01335861,

                  0.000000000,  0.00000000,  1.00000000

),byrow=TRUE,nrow=3,ncol=3)

g <- matrix(c(-0.003819938, -0.01406381, 0.009235749,

                     -0.010773904, -0.01627134, 0.017135870,

                      0.000000000 , 0.00000000, 0.000000000

),byrow=TRUE,nrow=3,ncol=3)                      

h <- eye(2,3)

k <- f[1:3,1:2,drop=FALSE]

ETH20 <- SS(F=f,H=h,K=k,z0=c(0.11991149, 0.04457381, 1.00000000),

              output.names=c("Growth","(Q-N)"))

stability(ETH20)

shockDecomposition(toSSChol(ETH20))

ETH20.data <- simulate(ETH20,sampleT=50,start=1950,noise=matrix(0,50,2))

m <- l(ETH20,ETH20.data)

#tfplot(m)

AIC(m)

tfplot(forecast(m,horizon=50))

ETH20x <- SS(F=f,H=h,K=k,G=g,z0=c(0.11991149, 0.04457381, 1.00000000),

              output.names=c("Growth","(Q-N)"))

ETH20x

data <- TSdata(output=outputData(ETH20.data),input=RUL20.fx)

m <- l(ETH20x,data)

#tfplot(m)

AIC(m)

shockDecomposition(m)

tfplot(forecast(m,horizon=50,conditioning.inputs=RUL20.fx))

Blog Roll: Colombia

 

December 15, 2025. A recent article in Foreign Affairs caught my attention: The Needless Rift between America and Colombia: How to Rescue Washington's Most Important Partnership in Latin America. The article concludes that four areas might be emphasized to repair the relationship: drugs, migration, Venezuela, and Chinese influence. However, the subtext is that not much can happen during the current Trump II Administration. The article is well worth reading.

I have a model of the current Colombian Economy  (COL20, here) and other models of Latin American countries here and summarized here. 

Posts

Current models of the Colombian Economy and Others:

• Unstable cycles in Columbia The CO_L20 BAU Model is unstable and cyclical. It can be stabilized with Globalization input.
• Colombia's Globalization Bubble From 1990 to 2012, the Columbian Economy was in a Globalization Bubble.
• Six Futures for Colombia Continued Globalization without "Bubble Mania" provides a stable future for the Economy of Columbia.
• How Does the Economy of Colombia Work?
• Blog Roll: Venezuela  Without interference (e.g., from the US) the Economy of Venezuela is predicted to reach a steady state by 2100/
• Blog Roll: China Involvement in the Global South is not uniformly good or bad for China.
• Blog Roll: The United States The US has gone back to Gun Boat Diplomacy in Latin America.
• Blog Roll: Latin America The best Future for Latin America is no Geopolitical alignments outside the Global South.
• Blog Roll: The World System The WL20 World System model is on the edge of stability.

Wikipedia

• Columbia officially the Republic of Colombia,^[c] is a country located in South America, with insular regions in North America. 
• Columbia IMF The Colombian economy continues to expand with some moderation in key imbalances. After slowing sharply in 2023, the economy expanded by 1.7 percent in 2024 supported by private consumption, reflecting a robust labor market and a gradual recovery in investment.
• History of Columbia includes its settlement by indigenous peoples and the establishment of agrarian societies, notably the Muisca Confederation, Quimbaya Civilization, and Tairona Chiefdoms.
• Politics of Colombia a presidential representative democratic republic with a multi-party system, where the President of Colombia is both head of state and head of government. The national government has separate executive, legislative, and judicial branches.
• Economy of Colombia the fourth largest economy in Latin America as measured by gross domestic product and the third-largest economy in South America.
• Geography of Colombia situated largely in the north-west of South America, with some territories falling within the boundaries of Central America. It is bordered to the north-west by Panama; to the east by Brazil and Venezuela; to the south by Ecuador and Peru; and it shares maritime limits with Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.  
• 2026 Colombia Presidential Election Incumbent president Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022, was constitutionally barred from seeking a second term. Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly defeated Iván Cepeda in the run-off election held on 21 June 2026.
• Demographics of Colombia   Colombia is the second-most populous country in South America after Brazil, and the third-most populous in Latin America, after Brazil and Mexico.

Blog Roll: France

 

The Important Story for France is that the country is headed toward a Steady-State Economy. It will be mistakenly interpreted as Failure (by Wall Street). It isn't.

From the FRL20 Model: FR1 = (Overall Growth)

MSC 2026 WATCH: France’s Macron says 'Europe has to learn’ to be a geopolitical power in Munich.

Oct 23, 2026 'A perfect storm appears to be brewing over the French economy' The impact of social movements on economic growth is well-documented. These movements come at a time when high interest rates and soaring energy prices are eroding purchasing power, writes Le Monde economic journalist Olivier Pinaud in his column.

Oct 22, 2026 Art Basel Paris to End Early Because of France Riots Organizers cut the fair short after days of brisk sales at V.I.P. previews, citing safety concerns amid weeks of demonstrations in France.

Oct 22, 2026 In the Wake of Riots, the French Authorities Ban Some Protests President Emmanuel Macron said the move was necessary “so that calm prevails.”

Oct 22, 2026 Looted Goods From French Stores Flood Resale Sites After Riots Officials in France are pressing online platforms like eBay and Vinted to remove items that were stolen during public disturbances over the weekend.

Oct 22, 2026 The Only Thing We Can All Agree On Is That the World Is on Fire

How is it that Marine Le Pen is probably the odds-on favorite to be the next president of France?

Oct 21, 2026 Student Protests Mushroom Across Europe, Exposing Bleak Views of the Future Since high school students began protesting in France in September, they’ve been joined by young demonstrators in at least seven other European countries.

Oct 21, 2026 A Debt-Fueled “Doom Loop” Some democracies seem caught in a trap: Spend more and risk market panic, or cut benefits and empower the far right. When government debt gets out of hand, it’s a problem. In the run-up to the French Revolution, the French monarchy was heavily indebted and losing the ability to borrow from international bankers. Then the price of bread spiked, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Oct 20, 2026 France Comes Unglued, Again The French Model: universal health care; low-cost day care; affordable universities; strong worker protections; sacrosanct social benefits; high taxes; large investments in green energy; a secular republic in a multicultural society; constrained defense budgets; modest economic growth but lots of joie de vivre. For a long time that model seemed almost plausible. Not anymore.

Oct 13, 2026 Macron Dreamed of Reviving France, but His Term Is Ending in Crisis Nearly a decade after his first election as president, Emmanuel Macron is presiding over a tense country sliding toward the fiscal brink.

Oct 10, 2026 France's debt crisis and high school protests draw global attention French high school student protests have drawn major media coverage and political reactions in the US, Italy, Belgium and the UK. Only a few countries, such as Germany, wracked by its own domestic political debates, have treated the situation with restraint.

Oct 9, 2026 France’s Long, Fervent History of Protest Student demonstrations in recent weeks re-lit a centuries-old torch of civil resistance. How do they compare to previous movements in France?

Oct 9, 2026 Why is France in Crisis Debt, PolyCrisis and a resurgent Left Wing.

Oct 6, 2026 Understanding France's Polycrisis An autumn of discontent has gripped the country ahead of its presidential election

Oct 1, 2026 France's debt and economy are clearly taking on Italian characteristics What threatens France is not so much the risk of bankruptcy as the prospect of a slow decline similar to Italy's trajectory since the 1980s, writes Le Monde journalist Eric Albert in his column.

Sept. 9, 2025  The French government has collapsed again "less than 24 hours after its formation" (here). It seems like a good time to look back at what I have found about the French Economy:

• Debt Crisis in France There are Geopolitical Options. Only Business-as-Usual is a problem.
• Forecasting the Great Depression in France France was changed by WWI and reacted very conservatively to the Great Depression, making forecasting difficult.
• How is the French Labor Market Controlled? The role of World Markets for Agriculture and Oil.
• Has Austerity Helped or Hurt the French Economy? It's complicated but leads to a lot of Protest.
• Breaking Cycles of Austerity in France Find some way other than Austerity to control the Economy.
• La French TECH Cycles unlike Schumpeter's Creative Destruction cycles are stable.
• French Debt, Collapse of the Government and COVID-19 The lingering effects of the COVID shock are still with us and the French government is still preoccupied with Random Walk components rather than controlling the overall Economy.
• Six Futures for France A Steady State Economy or Growth-and-Collapse will not be accepted without Protest.
• World System: Steady State or Collapse The World System itself may be moving toward a Steady State Economy.
• How Does the Economy of France Work? The main controllers of the French Economy are not Austerity and Neoliberalism but rather the Environment and Unemployment.
• France in the Long Sixteenth Century Geopolitical Linkages between France and England have always been important historically.
• France (1450-1540) The Balance of Power System (Spain, France and England) began failing during this period.
• The French Revolution A Bourgeoise Revolution driven by the Urbanization Controller.

There is certainly a lot more to learn about the French economy. The important conclusion, at this point in my research, is that France might be heading toward a Steady State Economy which will lead to a period of World-System Chaos before government's learn to deal with the end of growth or Environmental Collapse or are able to discover new growth technologies through Schumpeter's Creative Destruction.

You can run the FRL20 Model written in R-Code on my Google Site (here). The French Economy is stable and headed toward a Steady-State Economy around 2030.

Notes

Wikipedia Links

• Economy of France  a highly developed social market economy with strong state participation in strategic sectors. It is the world's seventh-largest economy by nominal GDP and the ninth-largest economy by PPP, constituting around 3% of world GDP.
• Politics of France  a semi-presidential system determined by the Constitution of the Fifth Republic. The nation declares itself to be an "indivisible, secular, democratic, and social Republic". The constitution provides for a separation of powers and proclaims France's "attachment to the Rights of Man and the principles of National Sovereignty as defined by the Declaration of 1789".
• History of France he first written records for the history of France appeared in the Iron Age. What is now France made up the bulk of the region known to the Romans as Gaul. 
• 2000 in France The year 2000 is in particular remembered in France by a media campaign on the conditions of detention of prisoners. A parliamentary board of inquiry was created. The conclusions of the report were that French prisons were both unhealthy and over-populated. The sanitary arrangements were considered to be scandalous. The government of Lionel Jospin launched a program to renovate and build new prisons.
• Geography of France a terrain that is mostly flat plains or gently rolling hills in the north and the west and mountainous in the south (including the Massif Central and the Pyrenees) and the east (the country's highest points being in the Alps). Metropolitan France has a total size of 551,695 km² (213,011 mi²) (Europe only). It is the third-largest country in Europe by area (after Russia and Ukraine) and the largest in Western Europe.
• Race in France  subject of deep controversy among French people, as the potential existence of racial categorization in France is presently considered a taboo topic. Often considered against the French universalist tradition, discussions of race are considered by some to be part of a trend of Americanization in France. While discrimination on the basis of race is prohibited by the French constitution, and current law prohibits the collection of racial or ethnic data, there is still discussion as to how race operates in France as well as a wealth of scholarly work concerning race throughout France’s history.
• Demographics of France As of 1 January 2026, in Metropolitan France 66,792,845 people lived, while 2,289,151 lived in overseas France, for a total of 69,081,996 inhabitants in the French Republic. In the 2010s and until 2017, the population of France grew by 1 million people every three years – an average annual increase of 340,000 people, or +0.6%.
• Civil Unrest in France This is a list of incidents of civil disorder that have occurred France since the 13th century, including riots, strikes, violent labor disputes, minor insurrections, and other forms of civil unrest. According to one dataset, there were 8,516 rebellions in France over the period 1661–1789.

 

Blog Roll: Ukraine

 The Russo-Ukrainian War began in 2014 and is still ongoing without any clear sign of resolution. What the Russian Invasion will mean for the Ukrainian Economy is not clear but it has been a sever shock to the system. On this page, I will list what I have learned so far about the  Ukrainian Economy and Russian Economy in the hopes of understanding what might happen in the future. I will continue to update this page as I learn more.

• Seven Futures for Ukraine The UAL20 BAU model with different inputs suggests that there are not many desirable attractor paths for Ukraine. Most attract paths are worse than a Random Walk, with only the Business-as-Usual (BAU) model and linking to the  Russian Economy being better.
• Five Futures for Russia Interestingly enough, the best future for Russia is linkage with the European Union! Google AI reports:
  
  
  
  
  
• Is the EU Heading for a Steady State? From the standpoint of conventional Neoclassical Economic Growth analysis, future prospects for the EU don't look that good either. The EU may become a Steady State Economy. From the standpoint of continued Environmental damage, this might be a good thing. From the standpoint of growth-obsessed Russia, it would be unattractive.

My objective at this point (since the future us unknowable) is to try to figure out how the Ukrainian Economy, the Russian Economy and the economies of the European Union work and understand how they will respond to the shocks of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

• The Ukrainian Economy
• The Russian Economy

For more information about how my State Space models are estimated and constructed, see the Boiler Plate.

Trump's Trade War: the World-System Perspective

 

The New York Times today posted two interesting graphics about Trump' Trade War (here): The country status (above) and the results ranked by 2024 Imports (below).

From the ranks (above) it seems that he is going after the money, targeting our biggest trading partners. The economic sense of this (if there is any) is Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) for the US, a strategy typically employed by Global South countries. Basically, price imports so high that home-grown industries will develop to fill the gaps. Unfortunately, building factories and developing an ecosystem of suppliers takes times. In the mean time, prices in the home country (US) go up as are result of tariff expenses being added to list prices (remember when tariffs would be listed on automobile sticker prices).

By the time ISI would have any impact, Trump will be out of office.

Blog Roll: Syria