April 18, 2026 Maduro Is Gone, and the Purge Has Begun
April 10, 2026 Can Venezuela Recover Maybe? Treacherous!
Feb 10, 2026. Crisis in Venezuela: An Uncertain Future (full documentary) | FRONTLINE (PBS) YouTube Video
Jan 3, 2026. TRUMP INVADES VENEZUELA The New York Times is providing live updates here. My models (e.g., the VEL20 model, Latin American Regional Models and links below) suggest that the invasion and the aftermath (Trump claims the US will run the country) will not end well and are not in the best interests of Venezuela.
October 2025. Venezuela is currently in the News because the US appears to be planning an invasion of the country. Wikipedia notes (here) that "With the turn of the 21st century, the Venezuelan economy has been in a state of total collapse since 2013."
Here are some background forecasts from my VEL20 model and a model of the Latin American Region:
- Eight Growth forecasts for Venezuela Maybe not surprisingly, the best growth options involve no Geopolitical Alignments for the country. Alignment with the US is worse than a Random Walk.
- Inflation in Venezuela The best option to control inflation, maybe in this case surprisingly, is to increase Globalization.
- Predicting and Controlling Hyperinflation in Venezuela It is not easy but has to be gotten under control by current and future administrations in Venezuela.
- Venezuela Growth Forecast Without external interference (for example, a US invasion), the Venezuelan economy is predicted to reach a steady state after 2100.
- Latin American Futures Latin American has a somewhat different future from Venezuela, but Geopolitical Alignment with the Latin American region is another policy option for Venezuela.
- How will US Military Action affect the Economy of Venezuela? Not well!
Activities within Latin American and within the MAGA movement suggest that events in Venezuela and in the US are changing quickly and cannot be easily predicted. Hopefully, historical models and forecasts will make events that happen in the future somewhat more understandable.
You can experiment yourself with the VE20 model using an R-code simulation (here). To understand how the statistical models are created and estimated, see the Boiler Plate.
Exercise: How will the negative shock of invasion affect the state of the country (see the last line of code in the VE20 model)?
Background
- 2026 US Invasion of Venezuela On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
- Proposed Invasion of Venezuela The possibility of a United States-led invasion of Venezuela has been frequently discussed during the presidencies of Donald Trump.
- Economy of Venezuela a developing socialist economy strongly dependent on its natural resources. Its economic growth is closely linked to petroleum, as the country holds the largest crude oil supply in the world. Venezuela was historically among the wealthiest economies in South America, particularly from the 1950s to 1980s.
- Hyperinflation in Venezuela the currency instability in Venezuela that began in 2016 during the country's ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis. Venezuela began experiencing continuous and uninterrupted inflation in 1983, with double-digit annual inflation rates.
- Economic History of Venezuela a country located on the northern coast of South America. It is known for its large proven oil reserves. Venezuela was historically among the wealthiest economies in South America, particularly from the 1950s to 1980s.
- Politics of Venezuela conducted under what is nominally a federal presidential republic, but is in practice an authoritarian dictatorial government.
- How it All Went Wrong in Venezuela Aljazeera Documentary
- 2026 US Invasion of Venezuela On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The US operation, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, began around 2 a.m. local time, when explosions were observed.
- Steady State Economy an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time.
- Google AI
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