Perplexed By The Deficit Scolds?

zFacts has produced an interesting graph for the perplexed (here). It shows (click graphic above to enlarge) US National Debt as a percentage of National Income by Presidential term. It shows the Supply-Side debt disaster that started in the Reagan years and continues to the present. It also shows a great counterfactual: what would have happened if Reagan and the Bushes had balanced their budgets. In the counterfactual world, debt would currently be below 30% of National Income.

There's another interesting part of the graphic. Debt during World War II reached 120% of National Income and the US economy did not seem to have been damaged by this much debt in the Post-War years. What's more, a lot of that debt went to pay for equipment and armaments that were entirely expended during WWII and never had a productive lifetime. So, is 30%, 60%, 90%, 100% (the current number) or 120% the magic "bad number" for national debt?

Nations (especially a nation that plays the role of hegemonic leader in the world system) are not households. But, many business people (for example, here) seem to argue that the household analogy is appropriate so let's see where it takes us. 

Let's say you make $100,000/year (your Personal Income) and you have a $500,000 mortgage (your only debt). You are a solid citizen with a good job, savings and a bright future. These numbers don't seem unreasonable. But, your debt to income ration would be 500%. Whoa, the deficit scolds would say. You can only have a mortgage of $120,000 to bring your debt in line with your income (that's not much of a house for a person with a six-figure income).

So, if a deficit scold was your banker, how could you have possibly obtained that kind of loan? Of course, it's not only income but also net worth that should be considered (does anyone want to guess at the net worth of the US Federal government?). Another way to look at the graph above is that Presidents from Eisenhower to Carter did not invest as much in the US as they might have and today we have an infrastructure that is crumbling due to lack of investment. And, money is basically free right now. A great time to invest.

Of course, there are good reasons why the household analogy fails. The US government can print its own money and households cannot. The US National Debt could be wiped out tomorrow by printing more money. Since we have no inflation right now, it's not really clear what the effect of such a one-time jump in the money supply might be but deficit scolds would yell "inflation"  -- I'll look at the US money supply and what the Fed is doing in a future post.

So when people circulate videos such as the one below, the purpose is to scare the perplexed with large numbers. The debt is what it is. The debt from WWII was what it was and was probably necessary to end the Great Depression and win the War. The current debt level may be what is necessary to end the Great Recession (the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008), the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and win the War on Terror (lest we forget, the right wing is still at war with the Islamic world). Money is cheap right now and US infrastructure needs upgrading after decades of inadequate investment. The US is a safe haven for investment. WWII did not sacrifice the "future of our children" on the altar of debt. It ushered in decades of prosperity until the Neoliberal Right-Wing Supply Siders came to power. The upcoming Fiscal Cliff experiment will show how important government expenditure is during times of crisis.

Fourplay Between The Sheets

My first encounter with the Smooth Jazz group, Fourplay, was in a boutique store across the street from Rowe Pottery Works in Cambridge, WI. The store was playing the song you can hear in the video above from their debut album. It caught my ear and I asked the very attractive young lady behind the counter what was playing. She picked up the CD jewel case, turned bright red and told me it was foreplay between the sheets.

"Fourplay," of course, is a "play" on the "4/4" time signature and "sheets" of music. At this point in the conversation, my mind had become clouded with other musical images and I wasn't able to explain the play on words to the young lady. Hopefully, she has become a Smooth Jazz fan. Lee Ritenour, the original guitarist in Fourplay, has become one of my favorites (their current guitarist is Chuck Loeb, no slouch by any means).

Greg Norman: How To Start The Golf Swing

Yesterday on the Golf Channel Academy, I heard Greg Norman give an interesting explanation of how he starts the golf swing. As I've noted in prior posts (here), the Somax Institute recommends starting the golf swing with the left knee. In the Golf Channel interview, Norman commented that he did not like to start with his left knee but rather by turning his right pocket toward the target. He also mentioned that he had to develop a stand-up move to avoid hitting the ball fat (see the Stack & Tilt standup move here and, of course, that comment caught my attention).

In the video above and the frame I've isolated here, Wayne DeFrancesco discusses these two moves (and other unusual aspects of Norman's swing). He describes the moves as "butt under" (another Stack and Tit idea or problem for the critics) and "head back" (standup?).

I have not been able to hit balls trying Norman's approach to starting the golf swing, but it's worth exploring. Now I have three ways to start the golf swing: left knee (Somax style), left shoulder (Width Swing style) and now the right pocket rotation. I have had success with each of the first two approaches. Potentially, each could be done in a sequence similar to that recommended by the Somax Institute. What seems important here is to find a way to start the golf swing without using your hands!

In the Golf Channel video I also noticed that in Greg Norman's current swing, he stays much more centered over the ball, maybe even with a little left-side anchor than he did in the video above (DeFrancesco comments on Norman's right-anchor at the beginning of the video). Possibly, as we age, there needs to be some swing changes to compensate for changes in athleticism, which Greg Norman had plenty of all through his life!

In any event, I had a very nice Greg Norman wine for dinner tonight that can wash away any pain you might have lingering from bad golf swings.

Overmedicated Santelli gibberish on CNBC

Can anyone tell me what Rick Santelli is trying to say here? For those of my readers who are not familiar with Mr. Santelli, his comments as a CNBC correspondent from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2009 were thought to have started the Tea Party movement.

Now I realize that the Tea Party had its wings clipped by the electorate in the last election and that some had to be medicated so that they were able to continue functioning, but Mr. Santelli talks like someone who has been overmedicated (he reminds me of a person I met who had just taken an overdose of Prosac). If I'm right, someone needs to rush Mr. Santelli to the ER.

Or maybe it's just the constraints of the medium. If Mr. Santelli had a bigger white board, possibly he would be able to more fully develop his ideas.

Or maybe it's Mr. Santelli's genetics. His Wikipedia page (here) says he has four Italian parents. I have one Italian parent and I can understand two, but I don't understand four (Hey, compatriota, check yourself in, OK)!

In any event, what's all this about "trust and honesty," "fibbing going on with statistics" (Is he talking about himself? Or, as Curly of the Three Stooges once said "I resemble that!"), "250 grand isn't a million" (yes, that's an accurate statement), "how long will it be before they get in your pocket" (the British would say "knickers"), etc. "Breaking it down like no one else can" indeed Mr. Santelli.

Here's the transcript, if that will help in any way figure out what's being said here:

...let's get to the group this monday morning, check in with rick santelli and get saelli exchange. good morning, carl. to me, if you're trying to work with individuals to solve the problem, trust and honesty are very big components of that relationship working. and i'll tell you what, my theme of late has b that there's a lot of fibbing going on with statistics. but to the point where we take so many things for granted, we miss so many nontru and i'll you a nontruth. we always talk about the 1993 income tax of president clinton, and the top tax rate was 39.6%. threshold, $250 thud. so flash forward from 1993 to present, okay. well let me tell you something, there is this little thing called inflation. i know this might be nitpicking. but $250,000 today well, started out if you want to be apples to apples would be about $165,000 then. in other words, we are not adjusting even for inflation. so, if we're talking about $250,000 today being the same as then, we're wrong. it would be $165,000. so the point is, is that the difference between these two is $85,000. okay? is a 35% miss when it comes to being honest about it. oh, even worse let's take this. how many times, of course you've heard a million times, taxes on million favors and billionaires, even though, and i know this is adjusted, okay, but let's just keep it $250,000. well, 250 grand isn't a million. so it's off by 750-k over 1 million. okay? so, in essence, what we're doing is we're off on this one by 75%. we're off by 35% and 75%. so why am i doing this? because i'll tell you what, middle-class america, pay attention. because if the misses on income tax are this large when they're talking to you over simple numbers, how long, exactly, do you think it's going to be before they get in your pocket? people making $50,000 to $100,000. if we really want to come up with honesty in negotiating, first of all, if you're going to tax millionaires and and billionaires on it the 250 grand threshold, okay, fine. but make sure their net wealth really is a million or higher. and any tax increases should go direct to deficit reduction. take away the hey, everything goes into the general fund because it certainly seems like when you're fibbing about 35% and 75% truths that really all they're after isn't fixing the economy, it's your bucks. back to you. all right. rick, breaking it down like no one else can. rick santelli with the santelli exchange.

Marco Rubio es un pañuelo rosa

Mr. Burns makes a public service announcement explaining the Fiscal Cliff. Be sure to catch the details: a portrait of Teddy Roosevelt on the mantle, binders of women, Nate Silver Can't Add, Rape Now Bad, Marco Rubio, Immigration, the Romney campaign's misuse of graphics and, of course, class conflict -- a very funny smack down from the Simpsons.

I Shall Win! I Shall Win!

Andrea Bocelli sang Nessun Dorma from Turandot of Giacomo Puccini tonight during pledge night on my local Public TV station. From the crowd response to Bocelli Live in Central Park, this is everyone's favorite aria (the version above is from A Night in Tuscany). Here are the words and translation:

[Tenor]

Nessun dorma! (no one sleep)
Nessun dorma!

Tu pure, o' Principessa (even You, o' Princess)
nella tua fredda stanza (in your cold room),

guardi le stelle (watch the stairs),
che tremano d'Amore (that twinkle for Love)

e di Speranza (and for Hope)

[B]

Ma il mio mistero (But my secret)
e chiuso in Me (is closed within Me),

Il nome mio (My name)
nessun sapra (no one shall know)

No! No!

Sulla tua bocca (On your mouth)
lo diro (I will reveal it)

Quando la luce ... (When the light...)
splendera (shines)!

[C]

Ed il mio bacio (And my kiss)
sciogliera il silenzio (will dissolve the silence)

che Ti fa mia (that makes You mine).

[Chorus]

Il nome suo (His name),
nessun sapra (no one shall know i)

E Noi dovrem, ahime (And We shall have, alas),
morir...morir (to die...to die)!

[Tenor]

Dilegua o' notte (Vanish o' night)!
Tramontate stelle (Set Stars)!

Tramontate stelle (Set Stars)!

all'alba (At dawn)

Vincero (I shall win)!

Vincero (I shall win)!

Vincero (I shall win)!

Here's the version from which the lyrics were taken (can't get enough!):

It Wasn't Made in Uzbekistan

The orignal iPod commercial with Steve Jobs doing the voice over, Propeller Heads "Take California"!

When you took an iPod out of the box it was so beautiful that it seemed to glow, and it made all other music players look as if they had been designed and manufactured in Uzbekistan, Walter Isaacson, Steve Jobs, p. 393.

I like the original commercial a lot, but there were also the set of iconic commercials, for example:



All this ($75 million first year budget) to revolutionize the music industry! Rip. Mix. Burn.

TECH NOTE: The original iPod used a tiny 1.8" Toshiba hard drive that held five gigabytes of storage (about a thousand songs). Toshiba was not sure what to do with their innovation but Jon Rubinstein at Apple did. The hard drive was soon to be replaced by flash memory (the current MacBook Pros with the high-resolution retinal display come only with flash memory, no hard drive--good bye hard drive crashes and over-heating)!

Rule 14-1b

The USGA has recently promulgated the controversial Rule 14-1b regulating the use of long-putters.  There have been persistent rumors that something was in the works and the results are finally here (here). The graphic below describes the rule (a full size version of the info-graphic is available here). The USGA is seeking comment at Feedback@usga.org.  Here is the text of my comment to the USGA on the rule and a video of me using the long putter (if I want to continue using it, the stroke will have to change since I'm anchoring my left hand to my sternum):

I putt horribly using either anchored or unanchored. You'll have to make the hole 4' in diameter before anything will help my putting.

All seriousness aside, I understand the rule and it's very clear to me how to comply with the rule. I do worry a bit about using the long putter in competition and having a competitor assert that I touched my body with my left hand or touched my body with my left forearm. The rule seems clear that anchoring has to be intentional and that the hand, forearm or club has to be anchored through the swing. I can imagine some competitors using the long putter itself as an excuse for harassing tactics. And, whether you are or are not touching/anchoring my be obscured by baggy clothing, rain gear, winter gear or a big stomach.

Maybe it's like a provisional ball. On the first green, I have to declare that I am using a long putter and have no intention of anchoring it to my body regardless of what a competitor might think or think he sees. Or, maybe it's all too much of a hassle and you've effectively banned the long putters.

She Done Me Wrong

I heard blues guitarist Eamonn McCormack (read his bio here) the other night on Pandora's Blues Guitar Channel playing "She Done Me Wrong," liked his guitar playing, downloaded the album "Kindred Spirits" and have a live version of him playing the song in the video above. Here are the lyrics from the album:

[guitar intro]

Yeah, love ain't no easy game to play,
Lord knows I tried, all too long.

Yeah, love ain't no easy game to play,
Lord knows I tried, all too long.

Woke up that rainy Irish morning,
I read your letter baby, said you were gone.

Yeah, you're feelin' down and done me wrong pretty, pretty woman,
And now I know a grown man, just ain't supposed to cry.

Yeah, you're feelin' down and done me wrong pretty woman,
Now I know a man ain't supposed to cry.

You know I still pray to the Lord above,
Yes I pray, you gonna fly home some day.

[guitar solo]

Yeah, you know you done me wrong pretty, pretty woman,
Let me tell you now, I'm not your stepping stone.

Yeah, you done me wrong pretty, pretty woman,
No, I'm not your steppin' stone.

Yeah, I know it didn't work out as as I planned,
Cause you got yourself, another man.

Yeah, let my guitar cry...

[guitar solo]





Recorded on 10 April 2010 Live at SAAL BIRGIT Viersen, Germany

Eamonn McCormack: Vocals, All guitars, harmonica
Marc Inti: Bass Guitar
Tobi Baum: Drums

Song: She done me wrong written by Eamonn McCormack featured on the album "Kindred Spirits"

Ruthie Foster at the Door Community Auditorium

Tonight we saw Ruthie Foster at the Door Community Auditorium. The clip above ("Harder Than The Fall") feels most like the live performance tonight which was a knock out. She appeared with Tanya Richardson on Bass and Samantha Banks on Drums (no Hammond B3 tonight).

Here are the lyrics:

This is gonna be harder than I thought
The cost is gonna be higher than I bargained for.
The sun sets on another day, but the hurt won't fade away.
Gettin' back up is harder than the fall.

Drivin' 'round in my old familiar town,
Trying to find a place to hide my heart.
I was passin' time, between midnight trains and neon signs, Tellin' my story of how I tore our love apart.

Just the other day, I said I just can't cope, 
So I walked away. You said, hold on a little longer.
It'll be okay. Now I'm fightin' back strong, 
Trying to right my wrong. You're movin' on. 
You're movin' on.

My Woman Ran Off With The Garbage Man

Johnny Adams (1932-1998) was an American blues singer with a great multi-octave singing voice. He is probably best known for his version of Release Me in 1968. One of his lesser-known songs was Garbage Man, played in the video above. I just love the lyrics and, since they are hard to find on the Internet, I've written them out below (at some point I'd also like to write out the blues guitar solo):

You know my baby, she ran off with the garbage man,
I ain't goin' worry 'bout it.

Lord, my baby, she ran off with the garbage man,
Yes she did.

Won't you come on home to me woman,
I need you to empty my trash can.

You know my woman, she ran off with my hard-earned cash,
Yes she did.

Oh my woman, she ran off with my hard earned cash.

I'm not worried about my money woman,
I just need you to empty my trash.

I don't know where you've been,
And I don't know where you're goin'.

I don't know where you've been,
And I don't know where you're goin'.

Come on home to me baby,
Cause my garbage can is overflowin'.

[Guitar Solo]

You know my baby, she ran off with my hard-earned cash,

My, my, my baby, she ran off with my hard earned cash.

I'm not worried about my money woman,

Oh I need you to empty my trash.

You know my baby, she ran off with the garbage man.

My, my baby, she ran off with the garbage man.

Won't you come on home to me woman,

Oh I need you to empty my trash can.

Oh, Yeah, Yeah.

Jill Kelley and Natalie Khawam Win Prestigious Bimbo Bakery Award

HORSHAM, PA. Jill Kelley and her twin sister Natalie Khawam won the Bimbo Bakery award in the "Best Kardashian Sister Look Alike Contest." The two sisters are seen above with the Petraeus family and Jill's husband (Jill is second from the right).

Ms. Kelley commented in the Washington Post (here) that "It's great to receive this award in recognition of my accomplishments. I am a Korean diplomat, you know, and have immunity to stuff and I hate it when people sing 'I know a girl from South Korea, she's got the blah-blah, and blah-bah, etc.' I've given my all to our men in uniform and I hate being mixed up with this Broadwell women who is obviously flat-backing her way to the top of US pointy-headed diplomatic circles". 

Paula Broadwell, reached at the Petraeus family home where she was crashing on the couch, had no comment.

Adding Economic Causes to the Hurricane Intensity Model

Today on Fareed Zakaria GPS, economist Jeff Sachs of Columbia University added some economic detail to the earlier hurricane intensity model developed by Kerry Emanuel of MIT (here). Sachs inserted economic growth in the model and argued that glacier melting and coastal development increase hurricane impacts with higher sea level and more homes built on prime development land near the Ocean. The causal model above puts the two arguments together (click to enlarge) and shows the multiple positive impacts of economic growth on hurricane intensity and storm damage.

TECHNICAL NOTE: When reading causes off directed graphs, be aware that there are parameters associated with each arrow (discussed below) and that the parameters have either implicit positive signs or explicit negative signs. When you travel down a path, the parameters are multiplied together to determine the amount and direction of causation. For example, from CO2 Emissions -> Flooding in the graph above there are two negative signs that get multiplied together to create a positive effect.

The role of the parameters can be seen from simpler Impact Models  (e.g., the IPAT equation, the Kaya Identity and the Environmental Kuznets Curve);

In Impact Models, population growth (N) leads to economic growth (Q) leads to Energy use (E) leads to  CO2 emissions (C). By the rules of path analysis, N(qec) -> C where q is productivity (output per capita), e is Energy Efficiency (E/Q) and c is Emission Intensity (C/E). These can be influenced by technological change. The effect of population growth on CO2 emissions then depends on whether technological change increases more rapidly than the population growth rate.

Why Climate Change Will Lead To More Intense Hurricanes.

Here's an unbiased explanation from someone other than a Fox News Pundit (it's from Kerry Emanuel of MIT) about the causal link between global temperature increase and hurricane impacts. The causal modeling behind Prof. Emanuel's discussion is presented below.

The Pot Calling The Kettle Black, Literally!

I know that the clips of CNN anchor Candy Crowley trying to herd these cats has been played a lot, but it is truly remarkable. At the end of the clips, we have Governor Romney trying to call President Obama a liar and Candy Crowley has to step in and call the Governor a liar! Romney is the last person in the World that should be calling anyone a liar and, as my mother would say, "That's the pot calling the kettle black." Oh wait, in this case it's the challenger calling the President Black! Now it makes sense.

Now imagine that you work for a CEO-type like Mitt Romney and he calls you into his office to tell you that you're a liar. It's happened to me and it makes my stomach turn. In my case, there was no moderator there to call the CEO out and it is obvious that Mitt is just being a typical CEO here. I love watching him stammer after standing there with his pants on fire.

NOTE TO BHO: Just let the guy talk. He just keeps digging himself in deeper.

Front, Center and Rear Anchor Golf Swings

E. A. Tischler of New Horizons Golf Approach has a book out with a great title "The Secrets of Owning Your Own Swing". For me, this is the most important issue in golf. When you are out on the course and you're not playing very well, you can't give up on the round and wait until your next lesson to figure out what is going wrong. You have to understand ("own") your swing well enough to get your game back on track. If you can do that, you don't need a golf coach!

The other problem with golf instruction is that it is typically a one-size-fits-all approach. You are given the "correct" golf swing and expected to learn it. Unfortunately, everyone's body is different: bone structures are different, muscle masses differ, fat distributions differ, heights differ, athletic abilities differ, body symmetry is different, etc. It is just hard for me to believe that the different somatotypes can all use the same golf swing.

The Laws of Golf approach assumes that body type dictates swing type.  This is a little better than one-size-fits-all but the somatotype distinctions are not good enough to help you "own" your golf swing. If you are not playing well, either you are not executing the swing "correctly" or your body type has changed. Since body types don't usually change in the course of a round, you are back to learning the "correct" swing on the course.

E A Tischler's approach involves determining how you hit the best shots and tailoring your swing to your natural preferences based on results rather than conformation to ideal types. In the video above, he describes the three ways you can anchor your swing: front, center or left anchor (basically, front anchor is similar to Stack and Tilt, center anchor is similar to the Somax Swing and rear anchor is similar to the Width Swing). If you accept this line of reasoning, then there is no single way to anchor the golf swing (most conventional instruction, such as GolfTec, is right-anchor).

Tischler's full approach has 12 biomechanical features of the golf swing each with three options (Power-of-Three-Golf). Anchoring is just one of the biomechanical features. Basically, I have been able to work my way through the first five (mostly devoted to accuracy): Swing Path, Swing Track, Wrist Action, Delivery Action (still not sure about this) and Swing Anchor (discussed in the video above--at points the wind noise is bad but it's worth waiting for the wind to subside). The remaining features deal with Power and Feel. Coming at all this from having tried the Width Swing, Stack and Tilt, the Somax Swing and the Hogan Missing Piece Swing was helpful. E A Tischler's approach is a lot to digest but well worth the effort!

Who Are the 47%?

SNL provides an answer to Mitt Romney's "off-the-cuff" comment in front of wealthy donors.

Romney Makes Appearance on Big Bank Commercial

Romney's appearance started out to be a pitch for reductions in financial regulation and ended up as a commentary on heartless, robotic right wing social policies.

Club Selection for Chipping

In the video above, we have Brad Smith suggesting that you use three clubs (8-iron, Pitching-wedge and Sand-wedge) for chipping. Brad provides a rough formula for roll-out: Sand-wedge 1:1, Pitching-wedge, 2:1 and 8-iron, 3:1.

As a young player, I had the chance to see Gary Player at the Milwaukee Open in the 1960's. Player seemed to chip with every iron in the bag depending on the distance from the hole. When I recently followed college players in the Big Ten Championship at University Ridge, all the college players seemed to chip exclusively with the 60-degree wedge.

I am basically a mediocre chipper. Over time, I have had success with the Gary Player approach (to include chipping with a 22-degree utility club), with the a single club (usually an 8-iron, Sand-wedge or 60-degree Wedge), but I have not tried Brad Smith's three-club approach. Since this tip was passed on to me by Tom Scott (see Tom chipping here), it's certainly worth a try.

One concern I have about the Brad Smith video is that I have had very little luck chipping out of the rough with anything other than a Sand-wedge. All of Brad's shots in the video above were out of the rough and my guess is that he fluffed them up for the video. Where I have the most problem is from tight lies. At my home course, the Orchards in Egg Harbor, WI, the mowed areas around the greens have bent grass and are closely enough cut that putting (Texas Wedge) seems to be the most effective approach. So, we're back to Gary Player: use whatever club works for the conditions!

Another Steve Stricker Chipping Variation: the Tom Scott "Soft-Elbows" Shot

In an earlier post (here) I presented a Stack & Tilt variation on Steve Stricker's "stiff-wrist" approach to chipping. Tom Scott has a variation on the Stricker Swing which he calls the "soft-elbows" chip. Here's Tom's explanation of the shot that's demonstrated in the video below (given the typically high level of wind noise  at the Orchards Golf Club in Door County, WI, on this day, you can't hear what Tom is saying in the video, but I've asked him to write the copy below).



When I'm looking at a pitch/chip from rough or even longer cut fairways I like to use my flop wedge (60 degree).  I take a pretty open stance and, depending on the distance, I'll move my hands either more or less forward from neutral, in effect changing the loft of the club I suppose as much as +/- 10 degrees from nominal.  The swing itself is characterized by soft knees and particularly soft elbows with little to no wrist break.  In the practice swings what I'm looking for is a soft brushing of the grass in a smooth no-pinch stroke.  Distance is controlled by both loft and backswing, the latter rarely past half-way.  I use this swing on all my short to medium chip/pitches and with all my wedges.  From really short cut fringe/apron, where putting isn't possible I'll use my pitching-wedge or my gap-wedge, same swing.

Tom tried to teach me this chip many years ago and I never got it. What I seemed to be missing is that he works his right hand under on the follow through keeping the club face pointing up toward the sky. What I do a little differently, at least for right now, is to use a little more forward body movement (see the Stricker Chip here). My hands are not as good as Tom's, so I need to make sure that the club head is lagging behind my hands on the follow through (see my post on Padraig Harrington's approach to chipping here).

Jennifer Granholm's Sponge

In an earlier post (here), we saw Jennifer Granholm steal the show at the Democratic National Convention. In the video above, a 19-year old Granholm also steals the show on the Dating Game. The right wing will never forgive her for this indiscretion!

Stack & Tilt: Getting More Power

According to Mike Bennet and Andy Plummer the first golf fundamental is to "hit the ball first and the ground afterwards." Any golfer who has hit "fat shots" (ground first, then ball) understands the importance of this fundamental. The Bennet-Plummer solution to this imperative is the Stack and Tilt (S&T) swing, pictured in the right two frames above. Compared to the conventional width swing, pictured in the left two frames above, S&T maintains the weight on the left side (toward the target) throughout the swing rather than shifting the weight backward on the backswing.

A second imperative of a good golf swing is that "you generate enough power to play the course." In S&T, the power is generated by the standup move. The swing thought for S&T is "stack-tilt-standup". Over time, this swing thought has worked pretty well for me but it is not without problems: (1) my bad shot tends to be a push, (2) I have not been generating enough power and (3) I can still occasionally hit fat shots!

After a lot of experimenting this summer, I returned to an old video tip from long drive champion Steve Griffith (video above, you have to get through some promotional material to get to the tip, but not much and there's lots of interesting footage of Steve crushing his driver). To generate enough power to hit it long, Steve focuses on the shoulder turn. His tip is pretty straight forward: turn your left shoulder back under your chin and, snap, replace it with your right shoulder. The rapid unwinding of the upper body generates the power; the more rapid the unwinding, the more power.

I have been a little reluctant to share this tip because, as I well know, if done improperly it will result in an over-the-top shot (you can watch a video explanation of this fault here). What is interesting about over-the-top shots is that they usually go further  (and further to the left) then your normal shot. What we would like is the power of the over-the-top shot without the misdirection.

So, let's go back to S&T at the top of the backswing (third frame from the left above).  At the top, you are in a very stable position with S&T compared to the width swing. Quickly replacing your right shoulder with your left shoulder, as suggested by Steve Griffith, should work fine from this position.  But I can still sometimes hit a pull shot suggesting a little over-the-top.

The answer, I found, was to return to the description of how to start the width swing (see the description of the "Switch" on page four of this document):

"Your downswing starts with your left shoulder moving away from your chin as your club moves out toward the target line. Let your upper trunk rotate around you left leg while your right elbow clamps back to your side. Copy John Daly and Jack Niklaus to learn this move" (Adams, et. al. 1998: 137).

Possibly because I have the endomorphic body type suited to the width swing, the shoulder-separation move as the first step in rapidly replacing my left shoulder with my right shoulder prevents the pulled, over-the-top swing. 

To recap, I concentrate on maintaining a stable stacked position at the start of the swing, take the club back on an inside path to a 3/4 position at the top, start the swing by moving my left shoulder toward the target and then trying to rapdily replace my left- with my right-shoulder on the follow through. Right now, when done correctly, this move has given me another 10 yards on the irons and 20 yards on the driver, exactly what I have been looking for. In the future and at my age, there are probably decreasing returns to more rapid upper body rotation. For right now, I'm really happy with the results (increased accuracy and distance) being produced. As a bonus, I have hit no fat shots since taking this approach to the course!

Granholm Steals The Show

Why weren't prominent conservatives such as Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Phyllis Schlafly allowed to speak at the RNC (read an analysis here)?

Two Jazz Guitar Elder Statesmen Smoke the Blues

Fareed Haque and Larry Coryell are two of the elder statesmen of Jazz fusion guitar. I have never heard Fareed Haque play live but I did hear Larry Coryell many years ago on the Union Terrace in Madison, WI. Playing on the Union Terrace is quite a treat for musicians (check out the setup here with the musicians on stage and Lake Mendota behind). The acoustics are great and the audience is always appreciative. Larry Coryell seemed to be having a great time, although I don't really recognize him from the clip above with a head of white hair!

Is anyone else really knocked out by Fareed Haque's playing? Want to know how?



Follow Fareed's Jazz Rock Workshop starting with the first clip above. Great stuff!

Is Conservatism a Valid Philosophy or an Excuse for Self-Dealing?

The problems created by climate change and environmental degradation present an interesting test of conservative philosophical principles. Johnathan Adler, a law professor at Case Western University, argues (here) that the principle of private property provides a particularly strong test.

Severe Conservatives seem to argue that the principle of private property gives them the right to do whatever they want with their property. In the Anglo-American legal tradition, however, severe conservatives do not have the right to use their property in a way that causes harm to a neighbor.  Even moderate climate change resulting from your right-wing neighbor's CO2 emissions will have severe consequences that involve the loss of someone's property rights.

The right wing seems to misunderstand the conservative principle of property rights. It also seems to misunderstand that enforcement of property rights could solve environmental problems such as over fishing (here). Finally, small-government solutions such as revenue-neutral carbon taxes, incentives for innovation and reduction of regulations that inhibit the adoption of clean energy are all available conservative policy options.

Why doesn't the right wing champion property-right and small-government solutions to environmental problems? Why does the right wing oppose all kinds of tax increases? Would someone like to argue that the reason isn't simply the result of naked self-dealing and a misappropriation of collective assets?

Austerity: No Pain, No Gain or No Brain?

After a little bit of discussion, in the clip above, about whether or not Greece will abandon the Euro, CNBC commentator Rick Santelli comes on with Harry Dent (The Great Crash Ahead) to talk about Austerity. The clip is a mixture of interesting observations and Santelli's Old Time Austerity Religion.

First, Harry Dent observes that the EU countries should anticipate a future of slow growth for demographic reasons (a reasonable observation). But then Santelli goes on to "make it easy for his listeners to understand" by claiming that Austerity cannot be pursued without some pain (Dent agrees). This would be a vacuous observation except that it is pretty clear Santelli means "pain for somebody else." Since increases in taxation would reduce the Government Debt -> Austerity link and since Santelli is rabidly opposed to any increases in taxation (especially if that pain falls on the upper classes), he hopes to administer pain on the lower classes who are more dependent on the social programs he would like to see cut. CNBC has provided a great platform for Santelli's no-pain-in-my-backyard platform. This is also the Tea Party platform, for whom Santelli presumes to speak.

To cap things off, Harry Dent argues that what we need is a return of the Iron Lady (Margagret Thatcher) to help us impose Austerity on the lower classes. The last I checked, British Austerity as a response to the Financial Crisis was not going very well. Mr. Dent might reconsider using British economic history as a positive example of what happens under a right-wing Austerity regime.

WI Recall Candidate Lori Compas Wins Bimbo Bakery Award

HORSHAM, PA. Lori Compas, running against WI Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, has won the prestigious Bimbo Bakery award in the category "Best Campaign Ad, Wisconsin Recall Election." The Compas video (above) ran in rebuttal to a Wisconsin State Journal article (here) in which Fitzgerald commented that Ms. Compas' husband, Whitewater Professor Eric Compas, union bosses and protest groups were behind the campaign. In the video, Ms. Compas finds Fitzgerald's comment about women "bizarre and a little bit offensive" but typical of the right-wing mentality.

Traditionally, the Bimbo Bakery does not give out awards for actual achievement, but Ms. Compas' ad was so directly on the mark and used humor so effectively that it received the award. In a field of ads showing blow-dryed gassbags making vacuous promises and "pants-on-fire" claims, Ms. Compas' ad was truly refreshing, especially since sarcasm is lost on children, the Tea Party and certainly Scott Fitzgerald, R-WI.

The Hogan-Missing-Piece Swing vs. S&T Swing

Over the last few years, working with Stack & Tilt (S&T) I've had periods of inconsistent results and I've never really been sure what was going on. After playing a lot of golf this last week, I think I have some new insight.   When S&T hasn't been working, I have sometimes switched to V.J. Trolio's   "Hogan's Missing Piece" swing (http://www.thefinalmissingpiece.com/) with mixed results.

The background for the "missing-piece" swing was that Trolio found that video images of Hogan's swing after the car accident that damaged his pelvis and his legs, showed that Hogan had altered his golf swing to compensate for the injuries. And, he went on to play some of his best tournament golf despite the career-threatening injuries. The critical key to Hogan's altered swing action was the straightening of his right leg on the backswing (see the video of V.J. above).

The straightening of the right leg is also a component of the S&T swing but it doesn't have the status of a "missing piece". However, for me it turned out to be the missing piece. Conventional golf instruction forbids straightening the right leg. I have had real trouble breaking this ingrained prohibition and it has negatively impacted my S&T swing.

What I essentially did this week, after much practice-round struggle, was to use the standard S&T action (stack-tilt-standup), but concentrated exclusively on straightening my right leg on the backswing. I got here by first realizing that I wasn't getting a very good hip turn. Concentration on the hip turn, however,  produced uneven shot quality, particularly some bad pushes and over-hooks. As V. J. points out in the "missing-piece" book, straightening the right leg gets your hips into a very stable position that allows to you to swing pretty aggressively at the ball with much higher consistency (something, of course, Hogan was able to do quite well).

If you're having trouble with S&T consistency, check your right leg on the backswing--especially if you've had many years trying to master conventional golf instruction prescriptions!

Climate Feedbacks and Climate Change Denial

The NY Times recently ran an article titled Clouds' Effect on Climate Change Is Last Bastion for Dissenters. What was interesting to me about the article was not only the right wing's reasoning behind climate denial but also the rather sophisticated appeal to climate change feedbacks as a reason not to worry about CO2 emissions. We've come a long way from arguing that GHG emissions don't cause global warming to the "last bastion" of climate change denial, the Iris Effect proposed by Richard Lindzen.

As the directed graph above shows, the right wing has now conceded that CO2 emissions increase global temperature. However, Lindzen argues that warming will increase rain at the equator, depriving cirrus clouds of the moisture necessary for their formation. Since cirrus clouds have the effect of warming the Earth by preventing heat from escaping to space, fewer cirrus clouds could mean a cooler Earth as the Iris opens.

Unfortunately, there is no data to support Lindzen's arguments. Although the feedback effect might exist, it is either (1) too weak to deal with the massive amount of CO2 that is being pumped into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuel burning or (2) actually a positive loop.

The good news is that, supposedly, this is the right wing's last best argument. The bad news is that we're probably going back to one of the old irrational arguments.

Compare US to the EU: Stimulus vs. Austerity

Last Sunday, Fareed Zakaria (above) did an instructive comparison between the economies of the US and the EU in the aftermath of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. The histories of the two economies are different: the US followed an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy while the EU embraced austerity. Expansionary economic policy involves decreasing interest rates, increasing government spending and increasing the deficit. Austerity involves fighting (imaginary) inflation, reducing government spending and decreasing deficits. As far as historical experiments go, the results are pretty clear. The US is forecast to grow modestly next year while the EU is forecast to contract.

These lessons of history are hard for the right wing to understand: expansion means growth and austerity means contraction. The presumptive Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, has been preaching austerity for the US as the correct response to the Financial Crisis (here). The Tea Party movement is also preaching austerity (for example, Rick Santelli of CNBC and Senator Ron Johnson, R-WI). Their arguments are based on Rick Santorum's Old Time Religion: when you've been profligate, you need to repent. Their arguments are just not based on history as it is unfolding or did unfold during the Great Depression of the 1930's.

Medicaid, The ACA and the Mandate

Two recent articles in the New England Journal of Medicine brought up a new perspective on the US Health Care debate. The first article (here) suggested that the 26 Republican Governors challenging Medicare may be up to more than simply squirming under new Federal mandates. The second article (here) also suggested that the challenge to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) involving the mandate reveal how little the right-wing justices understand about insurance and how much they really wish to limit the power of the Federal government. I would go even further and say that the 26 Republican Governors and the four right-wing Supreme Court Justices might really be intent on destroying the Federal government.

I'm not sure what makes a mandate to purchase health insurance different when it comes from the State of Massachusetts or the Federal government. From a citizen's perspective, it's still a government mandate. The argument that there is some benefit in keeping government closer to the people in the States is, for me, also a little weird. Living in a State (Wisconsin) that has been hi-jacked by the extreme right wing is hardly more inclusive government. Somehow in Wisconsin it is more important that people carry concealed weapons rather than carry health insurance.

Basically, the 26 Republican Governors and the four right-wing Supreme Court justices might seem to be arguing that the Federal government cannot mandate anything. That would be a radical idea about government. Actually, I don't think that is what they are doing. The Federal government can mandate things the right-wing likes (military conscription, invasions of privacy in the name of Homeland security, concealed-carry shootouts at the OK Corral, etc.) and cannot mandate things the right-wing doesn't like (health care, spending for the poor, spending for the elderly, etc.).

It is interesting how the edifice of obscure constitutional arguments is being erected around such a simple, naked, political agenda. A nation with a corrupt legal and political system does not have a great future.

Walker Campaign Wins Prestigious Bimbo Bakery Award

HORSHAM, PA. The recall campaign of Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) was awarded the prestigious Bimbo Bakery award for "Best Campaign Spokesperson, Republican Woman." The award went to Ciara Matthews who is Gov. Walkers spokesperson for the recall campaign.

Some controversy was attached to the award when the Wisconsin Capital Times (here) reported that Ms. Matthews had worked as a Hooter Girl (pictured above) while attending college at the University of Nevada--Las Vegas. In response to the controversy, Ms. Matthews commented that "It was no big deal having right-wing loser guys drooling all over my skimpy tank top, in fact its was king-of fun."

Gov. Walker was at the NRA Convention in St. Louis and commented that he was "excited to have Ms. Matthews as his spokesgirl and thought she would make it a stimulating campaign." To the NRA audience he said the controversy reminded him of Mae West's comment about concealed carry in the 1933 film She Done Him Wrong. Walker also received the NRA's Harlon B. Carter award for Extreme Right Wing Legislative Achievement. Mr. Carter was, from 1977 to 1985, the executive vice president of the NRA and was known as Mr. NRA. He died in Green Valley, Az in 1991 at the age of 78 from lung cancer.

What Caused The Financial Crisis? 21 Different Views!

In the video above, CNBC analyst Steve Leisman interviews Andre W. Lo who recently wrote Reading About the Financial Crisis: A 21-Book Review, available on Prof. Lo's website (here). You might know Andrew Lo from another book he wrote A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street which argues that the random-walk view of financial markets is not quite accurate (for more on this, see my other blog piece here).

In the interview above, Prof. Lo argues that two of the myths surrounding the Financial Crisis of 2007 are probably wrong: (1) the argument that there was excessive risk taking (investment banks taking risks with other people's money) ignores the fact that many investment bankers lost large amounts of their own personal fortunes during the crisis and (2) the argument that mortgage lenders engaged in predatory borrowing seems contradicted by the sophisticated attempts of average home owners to purchase and "flip" house to make quick profits.

One might quibble with the quick points Prof. Lo made during the interview, but his lengthier paper reviewing the 21 books about the Financial Crisis is worth reading. The bottom line is that we still do not understand the financial crisis and well-intentioned policy attempts to prevent future crises, such as the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, may or may not be trying to solve problems that either don't exist or are the symptoms of deeper, poorly understood, more fundamental factors.

Tiger Woods: Swing Evolution in 2012

Last Sunday, Tiger Woods won the Arnold Palmer Invitational for his first PGA Tour win since 2009. On the Gotham Golf Blog, Dana Dahlquist does an analysis (above) of how Tiger's swing has been evolving over time. What is interesting about the analysis is the importance of Tiger's standup move which is very similar to the Stack & Tilt standup (see my prior post here).

What was also of interest to me was the Friday round (here) where Tiger and Charlie Wi shared the tournament lead. They both are using left-centered golf swings (more weight on the left foot for right-handed players). Charlie finished T29 with two poor final rounds (76 and 78) after two good initial rounds (66 and 68). Both Tiger and Charlie are worth watching since they are challenging the conventional wisdom of golf instruction and playing quite well right now.

Right-Wing Counterfactual: Could Auto Workers Have Sent Their Children To College Without Unions?

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Dorian Warren, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Columbia University raised an interesting counterfactual in the video above from the Melissa Harris-Perry shown on MSNBC this morning. Prof. Warren, when commenting on the tendency of the outsourced US economy to generate low-paying service sector jobs, said that it was collective action after WWII that turned low-wage factory jobs into high-paying industrial jobs that built the US middle class. These were the jobs that allowed auto workers to send their children to college.

The right-wing (particularly in Wisconsin) has been arguing that the US would be better off without unions. If this is the case in the 21st Century, it should also have been true in the last half of the 20th Century. Every person in the US middle class whose working-class parents sent them to college should ponder the counterfactual of a union-free US economy and what their personal histories would have looked like if the right-wing had realized their dream after WWII.

Bielema Wins Bimbo Bakery Honorable Mention

University of Wisconsin head football coach Bret Bielema won honorable mention in the Bimbo Bakery "Best Trophy Wife" category. On receiving the award, Bielema commented "Not winning the Rose Bowl this year was disappointing but this is really what every jock wants. Who the Hell is Bimbo Bakery anyway? They aren't handing out the Joe Paterno award, are they?"

Bret and his wife Jen Hielsberg were married today in a contraceptive-free ceremony at St. Maria Goretti Catholic Church in Madison by Rev. Mike who is said to have also counseled UW senior athletic director John Chadima in pre-marital abstinence.