Blog Roll: The US Federal Reserve

 

Tuesday May 12, 2026 FrontLine PBS

The President vs. the Fed

President Trump's unprecedented challenges to the Federal Reserve and what it means for the economy; tracing the battle between Trump and the Fed as the central bank steers the economy through an increasingly precarious moment.

April 30, 2026 Why Powell decided to stay at the Fed. 

Jan 30, 2026 Trump Nominates Kevin M. Warsh to become the next Fed Chair and Paul Krugman thinks Warsh isn't qualified.

There are currently bills before the US Congress and Chapter 24 in Project 2025 (the Conservative Manifesto) calling for the US Federal Reserve to be abolished. Google AI Reports:

The following reasons are given:

These arguments can be debated. However, what interests me is the argument for more Federal Reserve Transparency and Automation and I have been posting on that topic:

• Trump vs. The Federal Reserve President Trump (and a lot of other politicians) want lower interest rates to stimulate investment. The Fed has been keeping interest rates above the Attractor path given Trump's erratic economic policies. And, there are lots of problems the Fed is facing in setting interest rates too low.
• What Impact is the Fed Having on the Dual Mandate? Some politicians argue the Fed has too much power but the data shows that Fed policy manipulations don't have major effects.
• Could the Fed be replaced by a Computer Program? No, but more automation, communication, public input and transparency would help (and could be a model for other Federal Agency reform).
• Four Regimes for Fed OS 1.0 The main problem with totally automating the Federal Reserve is what to do during Economic Crises. In addition to Business as Usual (BAU), three crises regimes can be identified statistically where human judgment is needed.
• Why does the Fed no longer try to control the Money Supply? It was found to be a weak policy variable and this post provides the data and a model.
• Project 2025 and the Federal Reserve An unbalanced collection of Wack-a-Doodle proposals from the far Right Wing.

Over time, I will have a lot more to say about Federal Reserve and automation of other Federal Government agencies. Given the dismal performance of the Trump II administration and the mistake of Big Tech for support of Right-Wing Agendas, it is time to start thinking out of the box!

Notes

• The Federal Reserve the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics (particularly the Panic of 1907) led to the desire for central control of the monetary system in order to alleviate financial crises.

Video

Blog Roll: The United States

 

Sep 23, 2026 Why have Third Parties Failed in the US? Both the Republican and Democratic parties are toxic!

Aug 22, 2026 The Economy got used to Low Borrowing Costs. A period of rapid adjustment is ahead for the US Economy and for Financial Markets (see US2 below).

The United States is facing a large number of problems right now. And, it does not appear that the Trump II Administration policies are addressed to solving any of them. Here are the problems and their interconnections as reported by ChatGPT (see the graphic below) 

Briefly, the Political System (top of the graphic below) has created economic, social, technological and geopolitical pressures that have led to declining state capacity. The arrows show reinforcing causal links that make the problems difficult to address.

Is the US Empire in Decline (video above) or in the Fifth Stage of Collapse as argued by the video below?

 

Results from the USL20 model (above) suggest that the US along with the World System (WL20 model) are to slow down and will reach a peak somewhere between 2040 and 2070.

A Blog Roll of my postings on the  US economy mostly using the USL20 model follows:

• Alternate Futures for the US The current administration (Trump II) envisions a Business-As-Usual future of unlimited, unstable exponential growth. A more realistic Geopolitical model would link the US to the World System.
• Trump Takes the US on a Random Walk The Future's Not Ours to See.
• Why MAGA Geopolitics? Recognition that the US is in collapse mode.
• US CO2 Emission Reductions Unlikely  The Trump II has done everything they can to disable Climate Policy and my forecasts are for CO2 emissions to stabilize at current levels (rather than be reduced) well past 2040.
• Why is Hardship Increasing in the US? Again, Business-as-usual (BAU) Policies of the Trump II do nothing to reduce hardship in the US.
• Geopolitical Linkages to Canada and Mexico. The Trump II administrations threatening policies toward North and South American countries are not facilitating a stable Geopolitical Environment. It would be better if North and South American countries found ways to link to the World System and benefit each other. US Hegemonic Leadership is not producing stability.
• US Inflation By Administration. The long-range attractor path predicts low levels of inflation for the US.
• US Unemployment. The attractor path for unemployment is expected to stabilize at around 9%, much higher than FED 2% targets.
• Alternate Forecasts for US CG Debt Debt is not out of control but that doesn't mean it won't keep increasing for a long time.
• Is the US in a Debt Crisis? The US has been in a Debt Crisis since 2010 (Debt significantly above the Attractor Path) but the future forecast is for peak-and-decline.
• Is $40T in Debt too much? The US Government doesn't seem concerned.

For the ULS203 Model, the primary state variables are:

US1 = (Overall Growth-Exports-Banks-CPU), US2 = Financial Markets (P.US.TBILL + P.CPAPER.  + P.FED.FUNDS. - Globalization), US3 = (L.US.U + GDP.X. +P.S.P.DPR + P.S. P.EPR. + P.FUELS. + Globalization - Q.H.Starts.) where  + P.S.P.DPR + P.S. P.EPR.= corporate performance. 

The ULS203 Model is nonlinear and unstable but only has one eigenvalue > 1.0-- it is essentially a moving average model. The USL20W Model (World Model) is also a moving average model but is linear and can be stabilized.

US Interconnected Problems