Overshoot and Collapse
Oct 29, 2026 Our climate models have a big, dangerous blind spot A powerful feedback loop could drive more warming than predicted.
Oct 21, 2026 U.S. Is an Outlier Among Rich Nations in Slowing Climate Progress, U.N. Data Says The scientific report, identifies the United States as an outlier among the nations responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions.
Oct 20, 2026 US Government Climate Report is BS
Climate contrarians questioned evidence of a human fingerprint on climate change in a report commissioned by the Energy Department. Critics say it was based on flawed analysis.
As global temperature increase shoots past 1.5 degrees Celsius, the vulnerable countries that fought for that Paris Agreement target face a brutal new reality.
Sep 2, 2026 UN Says World will Miss 1.5 Target Carbon removal at scale combined with emissions reduction is the only way to avert catastrophic warming.
UNEP (Sep 2026) Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return Here's the UN Report
July 17, 2026 How to Abandon Your Climate Commitments and Get Away With It. Big business made big promises about saving the planet. Following through hasn’t been easy.
July 16, 2026 Top Science Panel Backs Research Linking Extreme Weather to Climate Change Attribution science is advancing quickly, researchers said. That could support lawsuits seeking damages for severe events worsened by global warming.
April 11, 2026 Northeast US Climate Goals are in Big Trouble
Feb 10, 2026. The NY Times is reporting that Trump Allies Near ‘Total Victory’ in Wiping Out U.S. Climate Regulation. Right-wing Conservative Zealots have been working on destroying the Clean Air Act since it was enacted in 1963. With the help of a Conservative Supreme Court and a poorly administered Environmental Protection Agency, they appear to be on the verge of success.
Here is a blog roll of my posts on Climate Change:
- A Primer on Climate Change Denial Scientific Consensus: the World is Warming and it is due to Human (Anthropogenic) forces.
- Climate Feedbacks and Climate Change Denial Feedback effects are too weak to overcome uncontrolled exponential growth in emissions.
- Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) Computer models that implement the current state of scientific knowledge on Climate Change. Climate Change Deniers offer no comparable models.
- Back of the Envelope calculations on Global Warming. So you don't believe the IAMS? You can do the calculations yourself on a piece of scrap paper (HINT: they won't support Climate Change Denial).
- Is the "Settled Science" Argument a Straw Man? Scientific consensus is never "settled" but a few wack-a-doodle books, articles and arguments don't destroy it.
- Is there a role for Nuclear Power in reducing CO2 Emissions? Maybe.
- What do "Intelligent Design" and "Climate Change Denial" have in common? Wack-a-doodle arguments.
- The most important IPCC Graphic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the UN has been working since 1988 to document the scientific consensus on Climate Change. It has produced a lot of documentation which has been difficult for Climate Change Deniers to digest. Here is a simple graphic comparing anthropogenic and natural climate forcings.
- Earth System Complexities Needless to say, the World Environmental System has a level of complexity that eludes computer models and qualitative commentaries. Here's a simple flow chart.
- Why are Winters getting Colder? A favorite argument of Climate Change Deniers (here), but there is a scientific explanation.
- What is Conservative Philosophy really about? Self-dealing.
- Russia is Burning. Climate Change is real in Russia (so Let's Invade Ukraine).
- Are there Feedback Loops that could control Energy Use and CO2 Emissions? Maybe, but they are not strong enough to prevent Climate Change.
- Hottest Years on Record are difficult to explain away.
- A Global Warming Denial based on Vapor Hiss and Poof!
- Carbon Accounting and Policy What is the Carbon Cycle and why isn't it in balance?
- Scientific Consensus and the Precautionary Principle. If you still think Climate Change isn't real, what is a rational response?
- CO2 Emissions and Ocean Acidification The CO2 has to go somewhere and the fish and aquatic plants (e.g. coral) don't like it.
- Why Climate Change will lead to more Hurricanes. The energy pumped into the atmosphere has to go somewhere!
- An Inconvenient Half-Truth Will sea-level rise flood New York and Trump's Mar-a-Lago?
- The Dangers of Environmentalism Is the Environmental Movement inspired by the Devil?
- Why Science is never settled. It's an iterative system.
- Feedbacks from Ecosystem Pressure. Can we adapt our way out of any Environmental Crisis?
- Are Carbon Markets back from the Dead? Economists once argued that Carbon Markets (trading emission rights for mitigations) could solve the Climate problem. They were wrong, but Free-Market Environmentalism will never die.
- Controlling CO2 Emissions. One way is to have a permanent Global Financial Crisis.
Projections from My State Space Models
So IAMS, paper-and-pencil calculations and opinionated blather are not good enough for the Skeptical Environmentalist? Here are results from my own, statistically estimated models:
- Blog Roll: The World System (1950-2000+) No support for Climate Change Deniers here.
However, Global Temperature will peak sometime after 2050.
The reason is that the World System (at least the WL203 Model) goes into Collapse Mode reducing the causes of rising temperatures. None of this will be pleasant.
