Blog Roll: Energy Transition

 

11 February 2026  

The magazine Nature concluded (here and here) that even though there is a lot of progress to report on the transition away from Fossil fuels "The transition to cleaner forms of energy are not happening fast enough to avoid dangerous climate change". here are some of my posts on the Energy Transition:

• World CO2 Emissions We are not really "bending the curve"!
• Global Temperature Projections Using the World System model, Global Temperature will peak below +1.5 degrees Centigrade. Using the Kaya Model, it will not (goodbye Polar Ice Caps).
• A More Conservative Peak Oil Forecast World Oil production, and the resulting CO2 emissions, might not collapse in 2040.
• Peak Oil and Global Warming Peak Oil Production, at some time in the Future, seems reasonable but "when" is hard to predict.
• World Population Collapse Both the UN and my WL20 model predict that World Population will start to collapse after 2050. If that really happens, there will be ripple effects throughout the Kaya Identity!
• World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.
• Six Futures for the World System The best Future for the World System involves no Hegemonic Leader.
• US CO2 Forecasts Emissions are declining in the US but the best way to reinforce the trend is to let gasoline prices increase, a political non-starter.
• Coal will make Reducing Energy Intensity Difficult Reducing the mining and burning of coal will be difficult and the Trump II Administration is trying to "Greenwash" the problem by rebranding it "Clean Coal," which it isn't.
• EU Gives Up on Climate Regulation! Really? Backtracking might simply be an admission that EU countries are reaching a steady state.
• US CO2 Emission Reduction Unlikely as a result of COP17 Steady-state emissions are more likely rather than reductions.
• World Impact Forecasts More on Impact Models, if you are interested. Impact models do not have feedback effects but they are easy to calculate by hand and maybe feedback effects are weak in the World-System.
• How to Balance the World System Wait for Growth-And-Collapse.