Blog Roll: Italy

 

Italy is approaching a Steady State Economy; it is not the "Sick Man" of Europe (unless you expect economies to grow forever).

 

Apr 9, 2026 Italy’s Meloni pivots away from Trump as she looks to reset her premiership

May 19, 2025 The Economist labels Italy the "Sick Man" of Europe

Under Giogia Meloni's leadership, Italy (IT) has started to play a more visible role in the European Union (EU). According the chatGPT, IT has always been an important member:

Here are some of my posts on Italy:

• Italy and the Debt Crisis Make the debt go away, Please!
• Inequality Forecasts for Italy Not Great!
• Geopolitical Alignment Forecasts for Italy Stick with the EU.
• Stable Growth and Collapse in Italy The BAU Economy is cyclical.
• The ITL20 Stable, Steady-State Model. You can run it yourself here!
• Italy: Demographic Collapse or Steady State? The approaching Steady-State is being confused with Societal Collapse.
• How might a Technocracy govern Italy's Steady-State Economy There are plenty of experts that can focus on managing the historical controllers and leave the rest of politics to Democracy.
• Austerity, Growth and Debt in Italy What will happen to these feedback loops in a Steady-State Economy?
• Globalization, CO2 Emissions and Unemployment in Italy. It's complicated but essential to understanding how the system is controlled.
• Productivity, Efficiency and Learning-by-Doing in Italy Technological change will shift toward Learning-by-Doing in a Steady-State Economy and Italy is strong here.
• Austerity is Easy, Growth Isn't Steady-State Economies are on the horizon.

The major problems facing Italy, according to chatGPT, are:

All these issue can be explored with the ITL20 model.

Steady State Growth (IT1) predictions from the ITL20 model.

 

Notes

Run the ITL20 model in R-code (here).  For more of my posts see Blog Roll: Italy. For information about how State Space Models are constructed and data sources, Boiler Plate and in the Introduction to State Space Models.

 

Wikipedia Links

• The Economy of Italy a highly developed social market economy. It is the third-largest national economy in the European Union, the 8th-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP, and the 12th-largest by PPP-adjusted GDP
• The Economy of Fascist Italy the economy in the Kingdom of Italy during the Fascist period.
• The Politics of Italy conducted through a parliamentary republic with a multi-party system. Italy has been a democratic republic since 2 June 1946.
• The History of Italy inhabited by humans since the Paleolithic. During antiquity, there were many peoples in the Italian peninsula, including Etruscans, Latins, Samnites, Umbri, Cisalpine Gauls, Greeks in Magna Graecia and others.
• Giorgia Meloni an Italian politician who serves as Prime Minister of Italy since October 2022. She is the first woman to hold the office and the head of the third-longest government in the history of the Italian Republic.

More Video

See Geopolitical Alignment Forecasts for Italy which suggests that the best alignment is with the EU.